I just remembered that I'm planning on meeting with people tomorrow (Monday) at 10pm, and I probably won't be done by 11pm. So, the end of the day is being pushed back an hour, to midnight PST.
<b>Stakhanov</b>, because {your name jumped out at me from the player list in the threadstarter / 'generic, nothing-to-go-on-so-early-in-the-game reason'}
<b>Blackmage</b> because he's being unnecessarily cheery! Also to avoid a phantom and cause he hasn't been voted yet <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
The most likely scenario to me would be the guardian saving one of the victims of the psycho/wolves/mafia and the vigilante holding off his kill for lack of information.
Ok, I tried to calculate whether a guardian save or a kill overlap is more likely, but I just can't think right now... This game is confusing...
Zero, you stole my vote... I was going to stick one on Blackmage just for fooling Swift and me last game, but since I don't have an actual reason, I'm not placing a second.
Bleh, nothing better to do right now... Ok, let's see...
18 players, 3 of which will be targeted, so 3/17 for the guardian to save (He can't save himself)
Now, the psychopath targets out of 17, and the mafia/wolves out of 15. So the chance of a mafia/wolf overlap is (15/18) x (1/15) (Chance of mafia not targeting a wolf, times the chance the wolves target the same one)...
Wait a second... This entire calculation is moot, because their choice isn't necessarily random.
Ah well, I'll vote later, when people have had more time to talk.
Xentor, the 3/17 is incorrect for the guardian. You have to remember the role of the martyr, which could basically decide to choose someone last night and the guardian saved the martyr (preventing a kill).
So the value is 4/17. Just to add to the complication already.
... or am I thinking this wrong and the martyr can only choose once in the game? I doubt it, since I looked at the roles and it didn't say a limit.
<!--quoteo(post=1584095:date=Dec 4 2006, 12:24 PM:name=Theslan)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Theslan @ Dec 4 2006, 12:24 PM) [snapback]1584095[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Xentor, the 3/17 is incorrect for the guardian. You have to remember the role of the martyr, which could basically decide to choose someone last night and the guardian saved the martyr (preventing a kill).
So the value is 4/17. Just to add to the complication already.
... or am I thinking this wrong and the martyr can only choose once in the game? I doubt it, since I looked at the roles and it didn't say a limit. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, that can't be right... Because the guardian saving the martyr only matters if the martyr guards the right target. The chances of the MARTYR being successful, assuming no vigilante kill, are 3/17.
So actually the formula for the guardian + martyr is:
3/17 (Guardian saves target - Includes martyr, because saving the martyr is different from guarding the martyr while he saves someone else) + ( 1/17 (Guardian targets martyr) * 3/17 (Martyr picks wolf/mafia/psycho target) )
So it's 3/17 + (1/17 * 3/17), and I'm not gonna calculate that out right now.
Of course, like I said, statistics are largely irrelevant if the factor isn't random, and players will choose based on agendas, or based on the experience level (Or other traits) of their targets.
Ok, I calculated it... 18.7% of a guardian save with three attempted kills and an active martyr. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.
<!--quoteo--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->... or am I thinking this wrong and the martyr can only choose once in the game? I doubt it, since I looked at the roles and it didn't say a limit.<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> The martyr has the option of picking someone every night of the game.
<!--quoteo(post=1584112:date=Dec 4 2006, 01:24 PM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Dec 4 2006, 01:24 PM) [snapback]1584112[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> No, that can't be right... Because the guardian saving the martyr only matters if the martyr guards the right target. The chances of the MARTYR being successful, assuming no vigilante kill, are 3/17.
So actually the formula for the guardian + martyr is:
3/17 (Guardian saves target - Includes martyr, because saving the martyr is different from guarding the martyr while he saves someone else) + ( 1/17 (Guardian targets martyr) * 3/17 (Martyr picks wolf/mafia/psycho target) )
So it's 3/17 + (1/17 * 3/17), and I'm not gonna calculate that out right now.
Of course, like I said, statistics are largely irrelevant if the factor isn't random, and players will choose based on agendas, or based on the experience level (Or other traits) of their targets. Ok, I calculated it... 18.7% of a guardian save with three attempted kills and an active martyr. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Um.... well... um... yeah. <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/confused-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="???" border="0" alt="confused-fix.gif" /> In either case, the 3/17's was wrong!
EMP_DemonNothing to see here.Join Date: 2005-01-28Member: 38754Members, Constellation
Okay, power supply's up and runnning again, hopefully until the end of the game.
I just wish it hadn't taken half my FireFox bookmarks and settings with it <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":angry:" border="0" alt="mad-fix.gif" />
Ugh, great. Everyone throws votes on each other and the reds are able to easily place votes on people by jumping on the "need to not get a phantom" bandwagon. >:/
Omega its only night one there's not too much many of us can go on and its sort of your own fault with the post saying you were voting on people not posting, and everyone jumped on that wagon it seems for the most part, granted everyone at this point should have posted, but nonetheless. Honestly with that post it made me wonder if that was an early attempt to draw suspicion away from yourself and almost made me want to vote for you just in case, but granted if razor dies tonight he was inactive so its his own fault and its possible you are just stating the obvious, but now this post flags you as a pssible "red", as you put it, but anyways my whole point is its only day one not much is going to be found out. The red finders have only had one night to work, no one really wants to die so everyone is going to post so they dont get phantom votes and we don't want innocents to die so we kind of have to stick with the way its going and vote for an inactive until people respond.
<!--sizeo:7--><span style="font-size:36pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->It is now night 2, no posting!<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
The group was arranged back in the entryway. "So, what should we do now?" asked <b>ZeroByte</b>.
"I say we should go exporing," <b>Krad</b> said. "Whatever it is that's trying to kill us, it is down that passageway, so the other passageways should be safe for now." <b>Krad</b> started heading toward another passageway, and <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> decided to follow.
"Well, don't expect us to run after you when you get killed, we already saw how well that went," <b>Comprox</b> said. <b>Krad</b>, <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> continued walking. "So, whatever that thing was, it is fairly big. It threw that big boulder at us."
"I do like <b>Krad's</b> idea of checking out other passages," <b>ZeroByte</b> said. "It's unfortunate that part of our group split off, but if they are going to explore that path, we might as well explore another path."
"I guess we don't have much else to do," <b>Comprox</b> said. The group moved off toward a third passageway, when they suddenly heard the noise of something hitting the ground. They looked over and saw a hand sticking out from the first passageway. They walked over, a little more cautiously than before. When they got there, they saw that <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->RaZoR<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> was laying flat on the ground. He was certainly dead, but there was no visible cause for his death.
"So, any ideas on what could have caused this?" <b>BlackMage</b> asked.
"Well, if we move on to another path, we will be moving away from whatever it was, and maybe we will figure something out," <b>ZeroByte</b> said. <b>ZeroByte</b> started moving toward the passageway they were initially moving toward, and the rest of the group followed.
<!--sizeo:7--><span style="font-size:36pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->It is Day 2<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
<b>Krad</b>, <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> were exploring the passageway that they picked. Everything seemed fairly calm. In fact, if it hadn't been for seeing <b>Petco</b> and <b>Lanfear</b> die earlier, it would have been a very calm experience. "I hope there's actually something worth finding this way," <b>GrayDuck</b> said. "It would be bad if we're all wandering around, not finding anything, and having people die in the process."
"Even if we don't find anything, we seem to be perfectly safe down here while the rest of the group explores more dangerous areas," <b>Isamil</b> pointed out. <b>Krad</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> looked at him. "Not that I wouldn't like to find something useful," he added.
They continued walking for a few minutes. "Is that a backpack up there?" <b>Krad</b> asked. "I think so," said <b>GrayDuck</b>.
They walked forward, a little cautiously now that there was a sign of people previously being there. They got to the backpack with nothing dangerous happening in the mean time. <b>Krad</b> opened the backpack up. "There's plenty of what used to be supplies," <b>Krad</b> said, as they looked at an empty water bottle and what appeared to be a partially broken-down bag of chips.
"This person had a diary with them, that could be quite helpful for us," <b>Isamil</b> said.
-----------
The rest of the group started heading down their chosen passageway. This path was a bit more scary, with constant rumbling sounds heard from around them. "Do you think we'll find anything?" <b>Mantrid</b> asked.
"It would be nice," <b>Theslan</b> said. "It would be nice to get paid after risking our lives in here."
"Yeah, early retirement would be nice," <b>Mantrid</b> said.
"Is the rumbling getting a lot louder?" <b>Comprox</b> asked. Everyone else noticed it immediately. As everyone else looked around, small parts of the ceiling started falling on them. Then much bigger pieces started falling. Everyone tried to dive for cover. The rocks were falling for about 10 seconds before everything calmed down.
"Is everyone O.K.?" <b>Xentor</b> asked. When they looked around to evaluate what had happened, they discovered that <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->Comprox<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> and <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->Omegaman<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> were dead.
Well, two kills again. Again we're left with the same possibilities as before, assuming the vigilante is biding his time...
1) The guardian made another succesful save. 2) The wolves/mafia/psycho had an overlap in targeting.
But now that we're further into it, we have a third possibility:
3) The psycho is dead.
It seems highly-unlikely that an entire 3-man team would have been eliminated by now (3/18 * 2/17 * 1/16, or something like that), so if any night-killing team is dead, it's most likely the psycho.
Now then... Comprox and Omegaman. I'm not sure how experienced the two of them are (Anyone feel free to chime in on that), but there's one main similarity. They were the two most active posters on day one, and for that matter, the FIRST two posters. In a regular wolf/human game, the wolves want to minimize communication, so dropping the most active players is a pretty solid game plan.
Trick is, this isn't a wolf/human game. This is a wolf/mafia/human game (And possibly still psycho). The psycho is acting on his own, but both 3-man killing teams are fighting a war on two main fronts. They need to eliminate the enemy killers, which are a bigger threat to them than the humans, AND they need to trim the human population down. This means they need to encourage communication just as much as we do.
(I'm not sure if I've actually made a point yet, but I've always been a stream-of-consciousness-style poster)
So, on to the votes themselves.
Comprox voted for Razor on reason of inactivity. Completely valid, and hard to draw any conclusions from it, or from his death. I don't think his vote was a factor in his targeting, since generally the killing teams want to use their kills to point the humans in the wrong direction. If the psychopath is still alive, this might have been a "safe" kill, since he doesn't need to target any specific group, and just needs to lay low while he kills people.
Omega's vote can't tell us anything either, as he, too, voted for an inactive. Again, this could have been a "safe" kill, or Cold Nite could be a killer laying low, going so far as to risk a phantom vote in order to not be noticed. Seems counter-productive, and I wish he'd speak up and let us know whether he's actually in this.
(Ok, just got interrupted for an hour by work, so I lost my train of thought)
Now, where was I...
Since the votes themselves don't look like much motivation, it looks like they're killing based on activity. Omega and Comprox were the ones putting out the theories and such on day one, but since nothing really accusing was put forward, I'm guessing that their killings were just a preventative measure.
If they're all targeting based on this, it might explain the missing deaths, as the guardian could be thinking along the same lines. The guardian had something like an 18% chance the first time (More, since it wasn't technically random), and that chance goes up each day. It's feasible that we've had two guardings, and now that I think about it, more likely than the psycho being dropped so soon.
Ok, I've babbled enough... I don't know if I made any useful points, and I probably sealed my death warrant by posting first, but at least people can start talking now.
So I'm thinking either the guardian is doing a really good job or the Psychopath got offed in the first round of killings. I'm hoping its the latter.
Now to try to come up with justifications for the comprox/omegaman kills.
The thing that jumps at me right away is that Comprox was one of the voters that that got razor killed. Might be a ploy by the bad 'uns to get us to lynch GrayDuck for being an opportunistic lyncher. Now it may be just a coincidence but another side might have also killed Omegaman to try to get us to lynch GrayDuck. I'm basing this idea off this post by Omegaman:
<!--QuoteBegin-Omegaman+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Omegaman)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Ugh, great. Everyone throws votes on each other and the reds are able to easily place votes on people by jumping on the "need to not get a phantom" bandwagon. >:/<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not defending GrayDuck though. It could also be a reverse psychology play by the wolves/mafia/psycho.
=== Just read Xentor's theories. Pretty valid also but its good to kick ideas around. ===
This is a pretty scary game. If we assume that all killer players are still around they would outnumber us 7 to 6. As I'm unable to be as active as I want to be in this game (broadband is still down plus school work) I'm going to go ahead and reveal my special role. I'm this game's vigilante.
By revealing this I hope to get contacted by other players who can help me play this role as best as I can in the situation I have. I haven't had direct contact with other players yet so the information I have is extremely limited. As such I have yet to use my kills in any of the nights. If you do contact me, be aware that I'll post your PM/emails to me unless I feel that posting it would be extremely disadvantageous for the humans.
My idea behind this is that lurking around in the shadows benefits the killer teams more than it benefits the humans. By trying to get a human network up in the open we may be able to use sheer numbers and my ability to kill (wheee!) get them before they thin us down too much.
Contact me via PM or email me using chemikhazi at gmail.
<!--quoteo(post=1584843:date=Dec 6 2006, 11:41 AM:name=Xentor)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Xentor @ Dec 6 2006, 11:41 AM) [snapback]1584843[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> Well, two kills again. Again we're left with the same possibilities as before, assuming the vigilante is biding his time...
1) The guardian made another succesful save. 2) The wolves/mafia/psycho had an overlap in targeting.
But now that we're further into it, we have a third possibility:
3) The psycho is dead. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd--> Just to add voice to the whole scenario, I believe we have 5 situations here. 2 of them are VERY unlikely and I urge you guys not to rely on them, but I have to put it out there in the very unlikely event it happens (say like... the wolf got lynch first day last round?):
1) guardian makes a save. 2) Wolves/Mafia/Psycho had overlap in targetting. 3) Psycho is dead. 4) WOLVES ARE ALL DEAD. 5) MAFIA ARE ALL DEAD.
I doubt 4 and 5 are highly likely. However, the only way we can confirm this is probably the specialist. If the specialist has seen one role that isn't wolf or mafia, then we can safely ignore 4 and 5. If not, then... who knows? The game is already confusing with roles.
ADD: I forgot that the seer and angel might have seen wolves/mafia that are still alive. Those two are also confirm if the last 2 scenarios are not possible.
That IS a possibility, Theslan, but I think it's unlikely enough that we can discount it for today.
Unless both the wolves and psycho targeted a mafia person the first night, and we lynched a mafia person (Or swap wolves and mafia in that condition), we can't have eliminated an entire red team yet. Keep in mind, we're looking for a reason for there being only two kills last night, and they'd have to be dead BEFORE last night to not get their killing shot.
Anyway, Sky getting lynched last round was mainly dumb luck, combined with Swift and me not being active or ready enough to make a saving move. No one tried to save Razor, as far as I noticed.
Tomorrow, the possibility of an entire three-man red team (I kinda like this term - More concise than "killing team") being dead becomes a little more plausible, but still unlikely.
I'll not only talk but cast the first stone at <b>ColdNite</b>.
Here's why I've voted the way that I have. My frst vote - Razor - inactive. Same with ColdNite. How fun is it to play a game with inactive players?
With that thought in mind, I'm trying to figure out exactly <i>how</i> to be come active. I haven't developed any theories... except for those that outright claim to be humans typically are not. I'm afraid to talk to anyone because I'm sure anyone who would 'reach out' to me would be trying to pull the wool over my eyes per say. I'm still feeling TWG out and trying to figure out what's what and how to make the best of it.
So for now, my vote sticks with the inactive. Hopefully next day I'll have something more to go on since everyone else posts at least on some level.
Comments
I may change it when I get back from work.
The most likely scenario to me would be the guardian saving one of the victims of the psycho/wolves/mafia and the vigilante holding off his kill for lack of information.
Zero, you stole my vote... I was going to stick one on Blackmage just for fooling Swift and me last game, but since I don't have an actual reason, I'm not placing a second.
Bleh, nothing better to do right now... Ok, let's see...
18 players, 3 of which will be targeted, so 3/17 for the guardian to save (He can't save himself)
Now, the psychopath targets out of 17, and the mafia/wolves out of 15. So the chance of a mafia/wolf overlap is (15/18) x (1/15) (Chance of mafia not targeting a wolf, times the chance the wolves target the same one)...
Wait a second... This entire calculation is moot, because their choice isn't necessarily random.
Ah well, I'll vote later, when people have had more time to talk.
So the value is 4/17. Just to add to the complication already.
... or am I thinking this wrong and the martyr can only choose once in the game? I doubt it, since I looked at the roles and it didn't say a limit.
Xentor, the 3/17 is incorrect for the guardian. You have to remember the role of the martyr, which could basically decide to choose someone last night and the guardian saved the martyr (preventing a kill).
So the value is 4/17. Just to add to the complication already.
... or am I thinking this wrong and the martyr can only choose once in the game? I doubt it, since I looked at the roles and it didn't say a limit.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, that can't be right... Because the guardian saving the martyr only matters if the martyr guards the right target. The chances of the MARTYR being successful, assuming no vigilante kill, are 3/17.
So actually the formula for the guardian + martyr is:
3/17 (Guardian saves target - Includes martyr, because saving the martyr is different from guarding the martyr while he saves someone else)
+ (
1/17 (Guardian targets martyr)
* 3/17 (Martyr picks wolf/mafia/psycho target)
)
So it's 3/17 + (1/17 * 3/17), and I'm not gonna calculate that out right now.
Of course, like I said, statistics are largely irrelevant if the factor isn't random, and players will choose based on agendas, or based on the experience level (Or other traits) of their targets.
Ok, I calculated it... 18.7% of a guardian save with three attempted kills and an active martyr. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.
The martyr has the option of picking someone every night of the game.
...
<b>ZeroByte</b> for voting for someone who's unnecessarily cheery.
I'll try and get a replacement supply ASAP though. <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":angry:" border="0" alt="mad-fix.gif" />
No, that can't be right... Because the guardian saving the martyr only matters if the martyr guards the right target. The chances of the MARTYR being successful, assuming no vigilante kill, are 3/17.
So actually the formula for the guardian + martyr is:
3/17 (Guardian saves target - Includes martyr, because saving the martyr is different from guarding the martyr while he saves someone else)
+ (
1/17 (Guardian targets martyr)
* 3/17 (Martyr picks wolf/mafia/psycho target)
)
So it's 3/17 + (1/17 * 3/17), and I'm not gonna calculate that out right now.
Of course, like I said, statistics are largely irrelevant if the factor isn't random, and players will choose based on agendas, or based on the experience level (Or other traits) of their targets.
Ok, I calculated it... 18.7% of a guardian save with three attempted kills and an active martyr. Correct me if I'm wrong, of course.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Um.... well... um... yeah. <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/confused-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid="???" border="0" alt="confused-fix.gif" /> In either case, the 3/17's was wrong!
And here's my attempt at a count...
Comprox (1) - Isamil
RaZoR (2) - Comprox, GrayDuck
GrayDuck (1) - Mantrid
Theslan (1) - Nurot
Nurot (1) - Theslan
Omegaman (1) - Krad
Cold NiTe (1) - Omegaman
Stakhanov (1) - Crispy
Blackmage (1) - ZeroByte
Isamil (1) - BlackMage
ZeroByte (1) - EMP Demon
Crispy (1) - Stakhanov
Krad (1) - Xentor
Not yet voted:
Razor
ColdNite
I just wish it hadn't taken half my FireFox bookmarks and settings with it <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/mad-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":angry:" border="0" alt="mad-fix.gif" />
The group was arranged back in the entryway. "So, what should we do now?" asked <b>ZeroByte</b>.
"I say we should go exporing," <b>Krad</b> said. "Whatever it is that's trying to kill us, it is down that passageway, so the other passageways should be safe for now." <b>Krad</b> started heading toward another passageway, and <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> decided to follow.
"Well, don't expect us to run after you when you get killed, we already saw how well that went," <b>Comprox</b> said. <b>Krad</b>, <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> continued walking. "So, whatever that thing was, it is fairly big. It threw that big boulder at us."
"I do like <b>Krad's</b> idea of checking out other passages," <b>ZeroByte</b> said. "It's unfortunate that part of our group split off, but if they are going to explore that path, we might as well explore another path."
"I guess we don't have much else to do," <b>Comprox</b> said. The group moved off toward a third passageway, when they suddenly heard the noise of something hitting the ground. They looked over and saw a hand sticking out from the first passageway. They walked over, a little more cautiously than before. When they got there, they saw that <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->RaZoR<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> was laying flat on the ground. He was certainly dead, but there was no visible cause for his death.
"So, any ideas on what could have caused this?" <b>BlackMage</b> asked.
"Well, if we move on to another path, we will be moving away from whatever it was, and maybe we will figure something out," <b>ZeroByte</b> said. <b>ZeroByte</b> started moving toward the passageway they were initially moving toward, and the rest of the group followed.
Players still alive
Krad
ZeroByte
Xentor
Stakhanov
Isamil
GrayDuck
BlackMage
Theslan
Nurot
Mantrid
Crispy
Omegaman
Cold NiTe (0.1 phantom votes)
Comprox
EMP Demon
The night will end Tuesday at midnight.
<b>Krad</b>, <b>Isamil</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> were exploring the passageway that they picked. Everything seemed fairly calm. In fact, if it hadn't been for seeing <b>Petco</b> and <b>Lanfear</b> die earlier, it would have been a very calm experience. "I hope there's actually something worth finding this way," <b>GrayDuck</b> said. "It would be bad if we're all wandering around, not finding anything, and having people die in the process."
"Even if we don't find anything, we seem to be perfectly safe down here while the rest of the group explores more dangerous areas," <b>Isamil</b> pointed out. <b>Krad</b> and <b>GrayDuck</b> looked at him. "Not that I wouldn't like to find something useful," he added.
They continued walking for a few minutes. "Is that a backpack up there?" <b>Krad</b> asked. "I think so," said <b>GrayDuck</b>.
They walked forward, a little cautiously now that there was a sign of people previously being there. They got to the backpack with nothing dangerous happening in the mean time. <b>Krad</b> opened the backpack up. "There's plenty of what used to be supplies," <b>Krad</b> said, as they looked at an empty water bottle and what appeared to be a partially broken-down bag of chips.
"This person had a diary with them, that could be quite helpful for us," <b>Isamil</b> said.
-----------
The rest of the group started heading down their chosen passageway. This path was a bit more scary, with constant rumbling sounds heard from around them. "Do you think we'll find anything?" <b>Mantrid</b> asked.
"It would be nice," <b>Theslan</b> said. "It would be nice to get paid after risking our lives in here."
"Yeah, early retirement would be nice," <b>Mantrid</b> said.
"Is the rumbling getting a lot louder?" <b>Comprox</b> asked. Everyone else noticed it immediately. As everyone else looked around, small parts of the ceiling started falling on them. Then much bigger pieces started falling. Everyone tried to dive for cover. The rocks were falling for about 10 seconds before everything calmed down.
"Is everyone O.K.?" <b>Xentor</b> asked. When they looked around to evaluate what had happened, they discovered that <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->Comprox<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> and <b><!--coloro:red--><span style="color:red"><!--/coloro-->Omegaman<!--colorc--></span><!--/colorc--></b> were dead.
Players still alive
Krad
ZeroByte
Xentor
Stakhanov
Isamil
GrayDuck
BlackMage
Theslan
Nurot
Mantrid
Crispy
Cold NiTe (0.1 phantom votes)
EMP Demon
Instalynch is at 7 votes. Day 2 will end Thursday at 11pm PST.
1) The guardian made another succesful save.
2) The wolves/mafia/psycho had an overlap in targeting.
But now that we're further into it, we have a third possibility:
3) The psycho is dead.
It seems highly-unlikely that an entire 3-man team would have been eliminated by now (3/18 * 2/17 * 1/16, or something like that), so if any night-killing team is dead, it's most likely the psycho.
Now then... Comprox and Omegaman. I'm not sure how experienced the two of them are (Anyone feel free to chime in on that), but there's one main similarity. They were the two most active posters on day one, and for that matter, the FIRST two posters. In a regular wolf/human game, the wolves want to minimize communication, so dropping the most active players is a pretty solid game plan.
Trick is, this isn't a wolf/human game. This is a wolf/mafia/human game (And possibly still psycho). The psycho is acting on his own, but both 3-man killing teams are fighting a war on two main fronts. They need to eliminate the enemy killers, which are a bigger threat to them than the humans, AND they need to trim the human population down. This means they need to encourage communication just as much as we do.
(I'm not sure if I've actually made a point yet, but I've always been a stream-of-consciousness-style poster)
So, on to the votes themselves.
Comprox voted for Razor on reason of inactivity. Completely valid, and hard to draw any conclusions from it, or from his death. I don't think his vote was a factor in his targeting, since generally the killing teams want to use their kills to point the humans in the wrong direction. If the psychopath is still alive, this might have been a "safe" kill, since he doesn't need to target any specific group, and just needs to lay low while he kills people.
Omega's vote can't tell us anything either, as he, too, voted for an inactive. Again, this could have been a "safe" kill, or Cold Nite could be a killer laying low, going so far as to risk a phantom vote in order to not be noticed. Seems counter-productive, and I wish he'd speak up and let us know whether he's actually in this.
(Ok, just got interrupted for an hour by work, so I lost my train of thought)
Now, where was I...
Since the votes themselves don't look like much motivation, it looks like they're killing based on activity. Omega and Comprox were the ones putting out the theories and such on day one, but since nothing really accusing was put forward, I'm guessing that their killings were just a preventative measure.
If they're all targeting based on this, it might explain the missing deaths, as the guardian could be thinking along the same lines. The guardian had something like an 18% chance the first time (More, since it wasn't technically random), and that chance goes up each day. It's feasible that we've had two guardings, and now that I think about it, more likely than the psycho being dropped so soon.
Ok, I've babbled enough... I don't know if I made any useful points, and I probably sealed my death warrant by posting first, but at least people can start talking now.
Now to try to come up with justifications for the comprox/omegaman kills.
The thing that jumps at me right away is that Comprox was one of the voters that that got razor killed. Might be a ploy by the bad 'uns to get us to lynch GrayDuck for being an opportunistic lyncher. Now it may be just a coincidence but another side might have also killed Omegaman to try to get us to lynch GrayDuck. I'm basing this idea off this post by Omegaman:
<!--QuoteBegin-Omegaman+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Omegaman)</div><div class='quotemain'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Ugh, great. Everyone throws votes on each other and the reds are able to easily place votes on people by jumping on the "need to not get a phantom" bandwagon. >:/<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I'm not defending GrayDuck though. It could also be a reverse psychology play by the wolves/mafia/psycho.
===
Just read Xentor's theories. Pretty valid also but its good to kick ideas around.
===
This is a pretty scary game. If we assume that all killer players are still around they would outnumber us 7 to 6. As I'm unable to be as active as I want to be in this game (broadband is still down plus school work) I'm going to go ahead and reveal my special role. I'm this game's vigilante.
By revealing this I hope to get contacted by other players who can help me play this role as best as I can in the situation I have. I haven't had direct contact with other players yet so the information I have is extremely limited. As such I have yet to use my kills in any of the nights. If you do contact me, be aware that I'll post your PM/emails to me unless I feel that posting it would be extremely disadvantageous for the humans.
My idea behind this is that lurking around in the shadows benefits the killer teams more than it benefits the humans. By trying to get a human network up in the open we may be able to use sheer numbers and my ability to kill (wheee!) get them before they thin us down too much.
Contact me via PM or email me using chemikhazi at gmail.
Well, two kills again. Again we're left with the same possibilities as before, assuming the vigilante is biding his time...
1) The guardian made another succesful save.
2) The wolves/mafia/psycho had an overlap in targeting.
But now that we're further into it, we have a third possibility:
3) The psycho is dead.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Just to add voice to the whole scenario, I believe we have 5 situations here. 2 of them are VERY unlikely and I urge you guys not to rely on them, but I have to put it out there in the very unlikely event it happens (say like... the wolf got lynch first day last round?):
1) guardian makes a save.
2) Wolves/Mafia/Psycho had overlap in targetting.
3) Psycho is dead.
4) WOLVES ARE ALL DEAD.
5) MAFIA ARE ALL DEAD.
I doubt 4 and 5 are highly likely. However, the only way we can confirm this is probably the specialist. If the specialist has seen one role that isn't wolf or mafia, then we can safely ignore 4 and 5. If not, then... who knows? The game is already confusing with roles.
ADD: I forgot that the seer and angel might have seen wolves/mafia that are still alive. Those two are also confirm if the last 2 scenarios are not possible.
Unless both the wolves and psycho targeted a mafia person the first night, and we lynched a mafia person (Or swap wolves and mafia in that condition), we can't have eliminated an entire red team yet. Keep in mind, we're looking for a reason for there being only two kills last night, and they'd have to be dead BEFORE last night to not get their killing shot.
Anyway, Sky getting lynched last round was mainly dumb luck, combined with Swift and me not being active or ready enough to make a saving move. No one tried to save Razor, as far as I noticed.
Tomorrow, the possibility of an entire three-man red team (I kinda like this term - More concise than "killing team") being dead becomes a little more plausible, but still unlikely.
ADD: Well, more like 18, but still... Talk, people.
Here's why I've voted the way that I have. My frst vote - Razor - inactive. Same with ColdNite. How fun is it to play a game with inactive players?
With that thought in mind, I'm trying to figure out exactly <i>how</i> to be come active. I haven't developed any theories... except for those that outright claim to be humans typically are not. I'm afraid to talk to anyone because I'm sure anyone who would 'reach out' to me would be trying to pull the wool over my eyes per say. I'm still feeling TWG out and trying to figure out what's what and how to make the best of it.
So for now, my vote sticks with the inactive. Hopefully next day I'll have something more to go on since everyone else posts at least on some level.