Going back to Comprox's proposal. There are two options as I see it. 1. Cromprox is a human, thinking - How could we get an advantage over those clue hoarding wolves? 2. Comrpox is a wolf, thinking - How could we get all the humans to tells us their clues?
Either way does having a whole bunch of mostly correct clues posted help the wolves more or the humans more?
If all the clues were correct then it would definitely help the humans more, but if (when) the wolves post an incorrect clue that takes the advantage away. The number you submit for the night most likely won't go against any of the clues posted. Thus making it impossible for the human to guess the clue at random.
If a wolf is discovered due to posting bad clues either a) the human will get killed b/c they have a competing clue. b) the wolf will get killed. Two wolves could easily gang up on a human if the human came up with a competing clue if the wolves were in nearby rooms. However, the wolves are probably spread out for the strategic advantage. Eventually the wolves would get found out in situation a, so it might be to the wolves advantage to maintain secrecy and let their comrade get killed.
So, is getting the code more important or is catching wolves more important? If everyone posts clues 1. humans chance of guessing the code (already bad ~ 1 in 100,000) gets worse. 2. the human's chance of getting a wolf increases
Regarding the last post: It won't be possible to find that a wolf is lying right now, since only one person can have any particular clue. If we're going to publicly post clues, we at least need to wait until "tomorrow" so that there is some risk in lying about clues. If we all posted clues on day 3, chances are all of the real clues would be out, and it would be a race to submit the correct code as quickly as possible (since the first PM received would be the one that counts). We could consider revealing clues during day 2, but not today.
I do not know who to vote, but apparently people are switching their votes left and right as I'm reading this thread.
My thoughts on Comprox's idea.
In theory, it could work. As long as people mention that they have found the clues in certain rooms and NOT tell what the clues are (ie, a number or whatever you get from there), it could work. The humans could double check and verify, and people can pinpoint who is lying and possibly find out wolves.
The problem is when one wolf withhold a clue. Say like one wolf is in Lounge this day and found a clue there, but claims he doesn't. All the other humans will be quickly trying to get the other clues and his fellow wolves will quickly get all the announced clues. In the end, the wolves are up an advantage because they have an unannounced clue... unless someone double check and verifies.
If people start double checking and verifying, it could work. This would mean a massive organizational movement, which I don't think it's possible given our paranoia nature.
EDIT: By the way, is it 6 clues, or 5 clues? This is something I'll like to verify. I noticed Comprox mentioned 6 clues, but the picture given by Freak83 shows 5 entries.
<!--quoteo(post=1598762:date=Jan 14 2007, 08:45 PM:name=Theslan)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Theslan @ Jan 14 2007, 08:45 PM) [snapback]1598762[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->EDIT: By the way, is it 6 clues, or 5 clues? This is something I'll like to verify. I noticed Comprox mentioned 6 clues, but the picture given by Freak83 shows 5 entries. <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There are 5 digits in the combination... Since I've already given away the fact that I got a clue last night, I'll just say that the clue isn't as simple as "The first number is X"... But it does cut the number of possibilities down a great deal.
Unfortunately, since EMP forced me to reveal that I have one, I'm probably a prime target for wolfing tonight. I might post it before the end of the day... Need to think about this a bit.
Addendum: Oh, right, I meant to say that there probably are SIX clues, as stated before. The point I was trying to make is that it's not one clue per digit.
Freak83, when you check a room and someone else has gotten the clue first. Can you check it again the next night to find the clue again?
Also, how does one find a clue over another person who checks the same room? Is it random.org, is it whoever PMs you first?
Anyway, we need to make sure everyone is active. People who have been checking this thread, but for whatever reason did not post, you should post and vote for someone by confirming you're active.
I'll change my vote to <b>Chakuu</b> since he/she appears to be inactive. I'll change my vote if that person posts.
ByekaName changed from Freak83TorontoJoin Date: 2003-03-13Member: 14484Members, Constellation
There are six individual clues.
Yes, you can recheck a room as many times as you wish. The clue will not dissapear once it's found so you can find it over and over again. If multiple people are in the same room it is determined randomly. I am too old fashioned to use such high style technology such as random.org so I do it the old fashioned way. I pick names out of a hat and/or flip a coin.
Hello all! Sorry for not posting earlier. Sunday tends to be one of my busier days.
Anywho, my opinion on Comprox's idea is undecided...
On one hand, posting our clues would give the wolves a serious competitive advantage. Not only can they spread out, share their clues, discuss possible code combinations, they will also have access to our clues. They may also post incorrect clues while remaining confident that our clues are correct.
On the other hand, by not sharing clues ourselves, we would lose any competitive advantage all together, as it would be near impossible to logically deduce the code.
As for my vote: If Comprox's story about im_lost sharing with him that he has a clue is true, then I'm confident neither of them are wolves. Therefore, neither of them have my vote.
Both Nightstalker and Eternal_Lost seem suspicious due the fact that they bandwagoned on im_lost. However, since they've both changed their vote and shared their reasons I will give them the benefit of the doubt.
At this time, I vote for <b>Demiguise</b>, due to the fact that he has not participated yet, and that he searched the same room as me. I will probably change my vote by the end of the day if he/she posts.
no reason, nothing to go on, sorry man... <b>Petco</b>
What happens if the wolfs get the vault open, humans automatically lose? If that's the case the ultimate sharing thing is a bad idea... I suppose I should read the rules better.
I change my vote to <b>Omegaman</b> as well, since he hasn't posted or picked a position on the map.
If he is a wolf, great.
If he has a human, okay, since the fact that he wasn't on the map means he never recieved a clue, so I'd rather have someone with no clue for sure leave the game rather than someone who has a possibility of having a clue.
People that haven't voted yet Omegaman (hasn't posted) Theslan Isamil (hasn't posted) Mantrid (hasn't posted)
As far as I know, Omegaman and Mantrid haven't been in IRC either (neither of them are on the userlist). That's a decent amount of inactivity going in this game. With nothing else to go on, I guess the best we can do is kill an inactive player like we are about to do.
<!--quoteo(post=1598989:date=Jan 15 2007, 02:42 PM:name=Chakuu)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Chakuu @ Jan 15 2007, 02:42 PM) [snapback]1598989[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> I change my vote to <b>Omegaman</b> as well, since he hasn't posted or picked a position on the map.
If he is a wolf, great.
If he has a human, okay, since the fact that he wasn't on the map means he never recieved a clue, so I'd rather have someone with no clue for sure leave the game rather than someone who has a possibility of having a clue.
Edit: If he *is* a human... <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
First off, You are not allowed to edit your posts.
Secondly, Seeing how i cast my vote aginst im_lost in error due to a chnage in the rules, I will change my vote to someone who is hurting the humnas the most, and that would be one of the two who has not selected a start location. so it between doomchica and Omegaman. so, bsaed on inactively(not selecting a room to start and being on irc) and a coin toss, I vote for<b> Omegaman</b>
I might not make it home tonight in time for the day to end.
Since I cannot make up my mind, I vote on <b>Theslan</b>, myself.
I would vote Omegaman, but if he manages to post something and be active, and everyone changes, I don't want to be the one that count him out because I didn't come back in time.
<!--quoteo(post=1599016:date=Jan 15 2007, 04:02 PM:name=Theslan)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Theslan @ Jan 15 2007, 04:02 PM) [snapback]1599016[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec--> I might not make it home tonight in time for the day to end.
Since I cannot make up my mind, I vote on <b>Theslan</b>, myself.
I would vote Omegaman, but if he manages to post something and be active, and everyone changes, I don't want to be the one that count him out because I didn't come back in time.
I'm going to change my vote to <b>Omegaman</b>, mainly because he hasn't posted at all. <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile-fix.gif" />
Eternaly_Lost, that wasn't a real edit. That was the forum's auto-append-a-new-post feature. Theslan used the word Edit because he knew it would happen. He couldn't possibly have changed anything in his previous content, so there's no problem with this. Notice the lack of the small text saying: "This post has been edited by [person]:[time]"
<!--quoteo(post=1598726:date=Jan 15 2007, 12:09 AM:name=doomchica)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(doomchica @ Jan 15 2007, 12:09 AM) [snapback]1598726[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->So, is getting the code more important or is catching wolves more important? If everyone posts clues 1. humans chance of guessing the code (already bad ~ 1 in 100,000) gets worse. 2. the human's chance of getting a wolf increases <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I feel like all of you people are obsessing over the code. As far as I'm concerned the humans aren't likely to get it anyway because the wolves can share codes amongst themselves that they <i>know</i> are correct. The human group with the seer is two people at this point (unless the seer is one of the inactive people).
The chance of guessing the code is something like 1 in 1,000 if you have two clues and 1 in 10 if you have 4 clues. If the wolves got 2 clues tonight and 2 clues tomorrow then they have a really good chance of guessing the code.
We should be using the clues as a tool to flush out the wolves as soon as possible. If we can agree on a strategic movement order before nightfall we can work on rechecking. Based on the rooms we are all in we could share that we have or don't have clues. Then a second person can re-check the rooms with clues and others can check the rooms without clues. Tomorrow we will be armed with more information.
I propose this movement: <img src="http://preview.dchica.photosite.com/~photos/tn/7791057_1024.ts1168897479000.jpg" border="0" alt="IPB Image" />
I'm on board with the movement... <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile-fix.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":)" border="0" alt="smile-fix.gif" />
For those who aren't in the IRC channel, you didn't get to see what GrayDuck is talking about. Basically, my idea is that Omegaman is most likely going to die today, so we might as well instalynch him before the end of the day. This will prevent others from receiving phantom votes. We only need one more vote on Omegaman now, and that should be done about 10 minutes before the end of the day (more discussion time is a good thing). I can make the vote myself, or someone else can do it.
since were running short on time, i woud suggest that you put your vote in now...since I dont think in the end itll change much about Omegaman. If you vote him now, then he dies, or if, someone else votes him, he dies....either way.. hes dead.
Unless of course he suddenly shows up and manages to talk his way out of this <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
The point is, someone might say something unrelated to Omegaman before the day would normally end, and ending the day earlier prevents it being said in the thread. There are about 2 hours left in the day.
<!--quoteo(post=1599049:date=Jan 15 2007, 09:53 PM:name=doomchica)--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(doomchica @ Jan 15 2007, 09:53 PM) [snapback]1599049[/snapback]</div><div class='quotemain'><!--quotec-->I propose this movement: <img src="http://preview.dchica.photosite.com/~photos/tn/7791057_1024.ts1168897479000.jpg" border="0" alt="IPB Image" /> <!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->To clear up any remaining confusion, the new white numbers are the proposed moves.
Comments
1. Cromprox is a human, thinking - How could we get an advantage over those clue hoarding wolves?
2. Comrpox is a wolf, thinking - How could we get all the humans to tells us their clues?
Either way does having a whole bunch of mostly correct clues posted help the wolves more or the humans more?
If all the clues were correct then it would definitely help the humans more, but if (when) the wolves post an incorrect clue that takes the advantage away. The number you submit for the night most likely won't go against any of the clues posted. Thus making it impossible for the human to guess the clue at random.
If a wolf is discovered due to posting bad clues either a) the human will get killed b/c they have a competing clue. b) the wolf will get killed. Two wolves could easily gang up on a human if the human came up with a competing clue if the wolves were in nearby rooms. However, the wolves are probably spread out for the strategic advantage. Eventually the wolves would get found out in situation a, so it might be to the wolves advantage to maintain secrecy and let their comrade get killed.
So, is getting the code more important or is catching wolves more important? If everyone posts clues
1. humans chance of guessing the code (already bad ~ 1 in 100,000) gets worse.
2. the human's chance of getting a wolf increases
What do people think of this?
Current vote count
Nightstalker (2) - Petco, Xentor
im_lost (2) - Eternaly_Lost, TheAdj
Omegaman (1) - screaming_tree4
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker
People that haven't voted yet
Demiguise (hasn't posted)
doomchica
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Chakuu (hasn't posted)
Theslan (hasn't posted)
GrayDuck
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
Regarding the last post:
It won't be possible to find that a wolf is lying right now, since only one person can have any particular clue. If we're going to publicly post clues, we at least need to wait until "tomorrow" so that there is some risk in lying about clues. If we all posted clues on day 3, chances are all of the real clues would be out, and it would be a race to submit the correct code as quickly as possible (since the first PM received would be the one that counts). We could consider revealing clues during day 2, but not today.
My thoughts on Comprox's idea.
In theory, it could work. As long as people mention that they have found the clues in certain rooms and NOT tell what the clues are (ie, a number or whatever you get from there), it could work. The humans could double check and verify, and people can pinpoint who is lying and possibly find out wolves.
The problem is when one wolf withhold a clue. Say like one wolf is in Lounge this day and found a clue there, but claims he doesn't. All the other humans will be quickly trying to get the other clues and his fellow wolves will quickly get all the announced clues. In the end, the wolves are up an advantage because they have an unannounced clue... unless someone double check and verifies.
If people start double checking and verifying, it could work. This would mean a massive organizational movement, which I don't think it's possible given our paranoia nature.
EDIT: By the way, is it 6 clues, or 5 clues? This is something I'll like to verify. I noticed Comprox mentioned 6 clues, but the picture given by Freak83 shows 5 entries.
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
There are 5 digits in the combination... Since I've already given away the fact that I got a clue last night, I'll just say that the clue isn't as simple as "The first number is X"... But it does cut the number of possibilities down a great deal.
Unfortunately, since EMP forced me to reveal that I have one, I'm probably a prime target for wolfing tonight. I might post it before the end of the day... Need to think about this a bit.
Addendum: Oh, right, I meant to say that there probably are SIX clues, as stated before. The point I was trying to make is that it's not one clue per digit.
Also, how does one find a clue over another person who checks the same room? Is it random.org, is it whoever PMs you first?
Anyway, we need to make sure everyone is active. People who have been checking this thread, but for whatever reason did not post, you should post and vote for someone by confirming you're active.
I'll change my vote to <b>Chakuu</b> since he/she appears to be inactive. I'll change my vote if that person posts.
Current vote count
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
im_lost (2) - Eternaly_Lost, TheAdj
Omegaman (1) - screaming_tree4
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker, Petco
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
People that haven't voted yet
Demiguise (hasn't posted)
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Chakuu (hasn't posted)
Theslan
GrayDuck
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
**Chakuu <i>(2)</i> - Nightstalker, Petco
Yes, you can recheck a room as many times as you wish. The clue will not dissapear once it's found so you can find it over and over again. If multiple people are in the same room it is determined randomly. I am too old fashioned to use such high style technology such as random.org so I do it the old fashioned way. I pick names out of a hat and/or flip a coin.
Anywho, my opinion on Comprox's idea is undecided...
On one hand, posting our clues would give the wolves a serious competitive advantage. Not only can they spread out, share their clues, discuss possible code combinations, they will also have access to our clues. They may also post incorrect clues while remaining confident that our clues are correct.
On the other hand, by not sharing clues ourselves, we would lose any competitive advantage all together, as it would be near impossible to logically deduce the code.
As for my vote: If Comprox's story about im_lost sharing with him that he has a clue is true, then I'm confident neither of them are wolves. Therefore, neither of them have my vote.
Both Nightstalker and Eternal_Lost seem suspicious due the fact that they bandwagoned on im_lost. However, since they've both changed their vote and shared their reasons I will give them the benefit of the doubt.
At this time, I vote for <b>Demiguise</b>, due to the fact that he has not participated yet, and that he searched the same room as me. I will probably change my vote by the end of the day if he/she posts.
Current vote count
im_lost (2) - Eternaly_Lost, TheAdj
Omegaman (2) - screaming_tree4, Petco
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
Demiguise (1) - Chakuu
People that haven't voted yet
Demiguise (hasn't posted)
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Theslan
GrayDuck
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
I'm Going to vote for <b>Omegaman</b>
What happens if the wolfs get the vault open, humans automatically lose? If that's the case the ultimate sharing thing is a bad idea... I suppose I should read the rules better.
If he is a wolf, great.
If he has a human, okay, since the fact that he wasn't on the map means he never recieved a clue, so I'd rather have someone with no clue for sure leave the game rather than someone who has a possibility of having a clue.
Edit: If he *is* a human...
<!--sizeo:5--><span style="font-size:18pt;line-height:100%"><!--/sizeo-->DON'T EDIT POSTS<!--sizec--></span><!--/sizec-->
Second, based on what the rules said, the artifact is something that is usable. We don't know what it does.
Current vote count
Omegaman (4) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu
im_lost (2) - Eternaly_Lost, TheAdj
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
Petco (1) - GrayDuck
People that haven't voted yet
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Theslan
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
As far as I know, Omegaman and Mantrid haven't been in IRC either (neither of them are on the userlist). That's a decent amount of inactivity going in this game. With nothing else to go on, I guess the best we can do is kill an inactive player like we are about to do.
I change my vote to <b>Omegaman</b> as well, since he hasn't posted or picked a position on the map.
If he is a wolf, great.
If he has a human, okay, since the fact that he wasn't on the map means he never recieved a clue, so I'd rather have someone with no clue for sure leave the game rather than someone who has a possibility of having a clue.
Edit: If he *is* a human...
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
First off, You are not allowed to edit your posts.
Secondly, Seeing how i cast my vote aginst im_lost in error due to a chnage in the rules, I will change my vote to someone who is hurting the humnas the most, and that would be one of the two who has not selected a start location. so it between doomchica and Omegaman. so, bsaed on inactively(not selecting a room to start and being on irc) and a coin toss, I vote for<b> Omegaman</b>
Since I cannot make up my mind, I vote on <b>Theslan</b>, myself.
I would vote Omegaman, but if he manages to post something and be active, and everyone changes, I don't want to be the one that count him out because I didn't come back in time.
Current Tally:
Omegaman (4) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu, Eternaly_Lost
im_lost (1) - TheAdj
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
Petco (1) - GrayDuck
Theslan (1) - Theslan
People that haven't voted yet
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
EDIT:
*******Omegaman (<i><b>5</b></i>) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu, Eternaly_Lost
I might not make it home tonight in time for the day to end.
Since I cannot make up my mind, I vote on <b>Theslan</b>, myself.
I would vote Omegaman, but if he manages to post something and be active, and everyone changes, I don't want to be the one that count him out because I didn't come back in time.
Current Tally:
Omegaman (4) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu, Eternaly_Lost
im_lost (1) - TheAdj
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Chakuu (1) - Nightstalker
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
Petco (1) - GrayDuck
Theslan (1) - Theslan
People that haven't voted yet
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
EDIT:
*******Omegaman (<i><b>5</b></i>) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu, Eternaly_Lost
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Once again, DO NOT EDIT YOUR POSTS.
There is less then 5 hours, for people to post.
These people are in danger of getting a phantom vote.
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
Anyone have a way to contact them and tell them to vote?
I would have to see them get a phantom vote so soon, if at all.
Ah, Hate not have
1. humans chance of guessing the code (already bad ~ 1 in 100,000) gets worse.
2. the human's chance of getting a wolf increases
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I feel like all of you people are obsessing over the code. As far as I'm concerned the humans aren't likely to get it anyway because the wolves can share codes amongst themselves that they <i>know</i> are correct. The human group with the seer is two people at this point (unless the seer is one of the inactive people).
The chance of guessing the code is something like 1 in 1,000 if you have two clues and 1 in 10 if you have 4 clues. If the wolves got 2 clues tonight and 2 clues tomorrow then they have a really good chance of guessing the code.
We should be using the clues as a tool to flush out the wolves as soon as possible. If we can agree on a strategic movement order before nightfall we can work on rechecking. Based on the rooms we are all in we could share that we have or don't have clues. Then a second person can re-check the rooms with clues and others can check the rooms without clues. Tomorrow we will be armed with more information.
I propose this movement:
<img src="http://preview.dchica.photosite.com/~photos/tn/7791057_1024.ts1168897479000.jpg" border="0" alt="IPB Image" />
I also change my vote to <b>omegaman</b>
Unless of course he suddenly shows up and manages to talk his way out of this <img src="style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tounge.gif" style="vertical-align:middle" emoid=":p" border="0" alt="tounge.gif" />
Omegaman (8) - screaming_tree4, Petco, Demiguise, Chakuu, Eternaly_Lost, Nightstalker, TheAdj, GrayDuck
Nightstalker (1) - Xentor
TheAdj (1) - im_lost
Xentor (1) - EMP Demon
EMP_Demon (1) - Comprox
Mantrid (1) - doomchica
Theslan (1) - Theslan
People that haven't voted yet
Omegaman (hasn't posted)
Isamil (hasn't posted)
Mantrid (hasn't posted)
<img src="http://preview.dchica.photosite.com/~photos/tn/7791057_1024.ts1168897479000.jpg" border="0" alt="IPB Image" />
<!--QuoteEnd--></div><!--QuoteEEnd-->To clear up any remaining confusion, the new white numbers are the proposed moves.