Hive skill difference vs winratio

peblpebl Join Date: 2016-02-09 Member: 212816Members Posts: 43 Advanced user
I was accused of pulling number out of my ass yesterday when I mention right at the start of game the likelihood of marines winning.
I was not aware of how difficult it was to copy urls into the game, so I decided to make a post about it instead.

First here is a link of how it theoretically should look like (stolen from @Nordic ) in wolfram.
Here is some wonitor urls that should show the same curve (win ratio) vs hive skill difference:

House of Awesome!
Thirsty Onos
DiamondGamers
Survival of the Fattest
NS2Large

I would say they match the curve ok.
So in the grand scheme; a hive skill difference really matters (no matter what ppl claim), and therefor your hive skill really tell something about you (no matter what a lot of ppl will claim),
and perhaps splitting hive skill in alien/marines may not be that important (too few where it matters/or they underestimate their value on their bad team).
And most important - do reshuffle if the hive skill difference is large, even if the game already have begone.
And a plea - if you are that elite that you change the hive skill difference significant - dont join a game midtgame.

Note that
1) this tells nothing about how good the shuffle heuristic is (at all).
2) Yes the graphs are messy in the extremes.
3) That is why I care about hive skill.
SantaClawsNordicmoultanoBeigeAlertStark
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Comments

  • AmbivalentAmbiguityAmbivalentAmbiguity Miami, FL Join Date: 2014-02-18 Member: 194129Members, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 23 Advanced user
    edited March 4
    I was with you right up until this part:
    pebl wrote: »
    And a plea - if you are that elite that you change the hive skill difference significant - dont join a game midtgame.

    If you're going to request this, then you damn well better request the inverse too. Especially if you want to talk of fairness. If averages are in the mid two thousands (and they frequently are), then you had better make a similar plea that anyone in the low hundreds needs to not join midgame, either.

    Dead weight can ruin a game just as easily.

    I suspect this wouldn't go over too well with a lot of people who feel that high skilled players are the "problem", though.

    edit: grammar/spelling
    Nordic
  • SquishpokePOOPFACESquishpokePOOPFACE -21,248 posts (ignore below) Join Date: 2012-10-31 Member: 165262Members, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 1,567 Advanced user
    @AmbivalentAmbiguity deadweight players have no impact until matched by a higher-skilled player the other team, at that point they have negative utility for taking up a player spot.
    To be fair, you have to have a very high IQ to play Natural Selection 2. The gameplay is extremely subtle, and without a solid grasp of military strategy and advanced mathematics you won't even win a single game. Theres also the game's nihilistic outlook, which is deftly woven into the game. The maps and artwork draw heavily from Riddley Scott's Alien franchise, for instance. The players understand this stuff, they have the intellectual capacity to truly appreciate the depth of the game, to realise that it's not just great, that it also says something about LIFE. As a consequence people who dislike Natural Selection 2 truly ARE idiots. of course they wouldn't appreciate, for instance, the humour in the Marines' existential catchphrase "how do I get to be so good", which itself is a cryptic reference to the high degree of intelligence required to play the game as intended. I'm smirking right now just imagining one of those addlepated simpletons scratching their heads in confusion when spectating a game. What fools... how I pity them. And, yes, by the way, i DO have a Fade tatoo. And no, you cannot see it. it's for the ladies' eyes only, and even then they have to demonstrate that they are within 50 hive skill points of my own (preferable lower) beforehand. Nothin personnel kid.
  • SantaClawsSantaClaws Denmark Join Date: 2012-07-31 Member: 154491Members, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 1,057 Advanced user
    I was with you right up until this part:
    pebl wrote: »
    And a plea - if you are that elite that you change the hive skill difference significant - dont join a game midtgame.

    If you're going to request this, then you damn well better request the inverse too. Especially if you want to talk of fairness. If averages are in the mid two thousands (and they frequently are), then you had better make a similar plea that anyone in the low hundreds needs to not join midgame, either.

    Dead weight can ruin a game just as easily.

    I suspect this wouldn't go over too well with a lot of people who feel that high skilled players are the "problem", though.

    edit: grammar/spelling
    You should elaborate this. How does "dead weight" impact your chance of winning?

    Like, I understand how a dead weight could influence a 6v6 competitive match. And I understand having a dead weight blocking a potential spot. But in a pub game where you already have made teams, and someone joins along midgame.. How is he making your chances *worse* than having nobody at all?

    It's not like dota where a bad team mate will feed the opponent with gold and exp. If a team mate does poorly, at worst he clogs up the infantry portals a little bit or takes a few too many eggs.
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    To be fair, I got the link from @moultano so he deserves the original credit. I only bring it up occasionally so that maybe others will remember it. Moultano has other little bits of gold if you look through his awesomed posts.
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • AmbivalentAmbiguityAmbivalentAmbiguity Miami, FL Join Date: 2014-02-18 Member: 194129Members, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 23 Advanced user
    edited March 4
    SantaClaws wrote: »
    You should elaborate this. How does "dead weight" impact your chance of winning?

    Like, I understand how a dead weight could influence a 6v6 competitive match. And I understand having a dead weight blocking a potential spot. But in a pub game where you already have made teams, and someone joins along midgame.. How is he making your chances *worse* than having nobody at all?

    It's not like dota where a bad team mate will feed the opponent with gold and exp. If a team mate does poorly, at worst he clogs up the infantry portals a little bit or takes a few too many eggs.

    I'm sorry, but I'm not going to list the multitude of reasons why and how a dead weight player can impact a game.

    Frankly, I'm advocating fairness. If a higher skilled player than the average can't join, than neither should a lower skilled.

    At the end of the day the two responses prove my point. Everyone's okay with screwing over a higher skilled player who wants to play, but not the lower skilled.
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 5
    Here is the same graph with data from all wonitor recording servers that I know of.
    yyJfNUY.png

    With the same data I added the constraint of games with an average 2000 or more hive skill. I was thinking the curve might break down at that skill level. This sample still has thousands of games in it, and more than any individual server does from the links in the OP. It still holds up fairly well even at the higher skill levels.
    HMOpGUl.png


    This makes me wonder how players would react if they were provided this information. What if NS2+ showed the average skill level and showed the theoretical chance of each team winning based on the function shared in the OP. I wouldn't think that would be programmatically hard to make. The hard part would be getting a modder to do it and to get UWE to accept the addition into NS2+ on github.
    Post edited by Nordic on
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • peblpebl Join Date: 2016-02-09 Member: 212816Members Posts: 43 Advanced user
    I was with you right up until this part:
    pebl wrote: »
    And a plea - if you are that elite that you change the hive skill difference significant - dont join a game midtgame.
    If you're going to request this, then you damn well better request the inverse too.

    Ahh, I completely agree with you; the inverse is bad too. However the ppl reading this forum are not from that (hive skill) group.
    Secondly I think you overestimates how many games are 2500+, so I seldom if ever see this inverse problem. Average skill games.
    But I should have worded it differently.

    Nordic wrote: »
    What if NS2+ showed the average skill level and showed the theoretical chance of each team winning based on the function shared in the OP. I wouldn't that that would be programmatically hard to make. The hard part would be getting a modder to do it and to get UWE to accept the addition into NS2+ on github.

    I did try to find a good estimate but it is not that easy. So I made the second best; A hive skill end game graph in ns2+ instead: pull request, and hope ppl get a better idea of when 100 skill points matter on which servers and with X amount of players.



  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 5
    pebl wrote: »
    I did try to find a good estimate but it is not that easy. So I made the second best; A hive skill end game graph in ns2+ instead: pull request, and hope ppl get a better idea of when 100 skill points matter on which servers and with X amount of players.
    Would it not be as simple as converting the math in that wolfram alpha page into a function, and then use find the difference between hive skill averages and input that value into the function to get a percentage? I am not a programmer, nor am I skilled enough to get into any advanced maths. Please educate me.
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • moultanomoultano Creator of ns_shiva. Join Date: 2002-12-14 Member: 10806Members, NS1 Playtester, Contributor, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Gold, Pistachionauts Posts: 4,197 Advanced user
    edited March 5
    Reading through the code again, I think the exact curve should be this for mapping average skill difference to game prediction if the teams have the same number of players. (Just changing the 100 to 200)

    There could be some systematic over or underestimation depending on the size of the games. The model makes assumptions about how skills combine as the game size increases that could be off in practice, and off by a different amount for each game size. The model assumes that the effect of one good players is diluted as the games get bigger, and that all the games should get closer to a tossup as game size gets bigger. (An alternative that would give the predictions the same variance at every gamesize would divide the skill difference by the sqrt of the number of players instead of the number itself.)
    Post edited by moultano on
    Nordic
  • HandschuhHandschuh Join Date: 2005-03-08 Member: 44338Members, NS2 Playtester Posts: 330 Advanced user
    moultano wrote: »
    Reading through the code again, I think the exact curve should be this for mapping average skill difference to game prediction if the teams have the same number of players. (Just changing the 100 to 200)

    In my opinion the Winrate of the aliens need to be higher than 50% with Hiveskill for example 2k vs 2k... even seperate hiveskills won't help much.

    I think the biggest issue is that there quite some people that have higher hiveskill than they should've because they're winning games against much stronger enemies from time to time they shouldn't have via Tunnel/Baserush. (At any point during the game)

    Especially on lowerskilled (1500-200) servers I notice those things... so If I'm alien with guys like those my only choice is to win with them via baserush or play lerk like a frigging lawnmower, because their alienplay is so incredibly bad... it's insane... but they know how to sneak through in order to get a tunnel and baserush...




    Stark
  • MephillesMephilles Germany Join Date: 2013-08-07 Member: 186634Members, NS2 Map Tester Posts: 885 Advanced user
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush
    return to zero
    VetinarimoultanoNousWandererStark
  • MoFo1MoFo1 United States Join Date: 2014-07-25 Member: 197612Members Posts: 639 Advanced user
    Mephilles wrote: »
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush

    I have wanted to know this for ages!
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    Mephilles wrote: »
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush
    Yet we have no stats on gorge tunnels. I gave my best shot at estimating it and the number was really low and people here gave very valid criticism of the stats. Most of you probably remember this, but my point is that we won't get those stats anytime soon.
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • skav2skav2 Join Date: 2007-05-28 Member: 61037Members, Reinforced - Gold Posts: 128 Advanced user
    From the graphs it seems the aliens win more often at any skill level and more so at increased differences. Even when marines have higher skills the aliens have a better chance of winning than marines in the same situation. I wonder how these numbers would look if they implemented the gorge tunnel change suggestions from the other thread.
  • HandschuhHandschuh Join Date: 2005-03-08 Member: 44338Members, NS2 Playtester Posts: 330 Advanced user
    edited March 5
    Nordic wrote: »
    Mephilles wrote: »
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush
    Yet we have no stats on gorge tunnels. I gave my best shot at estimating it and the number was really low and people here gave very valid criticism of the stats. Most of you probably remember this, but my point is that we won't get those stats anytime soon.

    The issue is that it happens, and it happens while the teams are incredibly unbalanced... ;-)
    So a number doesn't respresent the "hiveskillvalue"

    I remember days on 8bit server with a baserushtunnel every game... several times... it only worked on every 3rd game... but still....
  • moultanomoultano Creator of ns_shiva. Join Date: 2002-12-14 Member: 10806Members, NS1 Playtester, Contributor, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Gold, Pistachionauts Posts: 4,197 Advanced user
    The hail-mary victories in NS2 are one of the reasons I chose to use the Logistic Curve in the skill system instead of the gaussian cdf which many other skill systems use.
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 6
    Handschuh wrote: »
    Nordic wrote: »
    Mephilles wrote: »
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush
    Yet we have no stats on gorge tunnels. I gave my best shot at estimating it and the number was really low and people here gave very valid criticism of the stats. Most of you probably remember this, but my point is that we won't get those stats anytime soon.

    The issue is that it happens, and it happens while the teams are incredibly unbalanced... ;-)
    So a number doesn't respresent the "hiveskillvalue"

    The attempt at getting even a rough estimate didn't even use hive skill. I have quoted the information.
    Nordic wrote: »
    Bacillus wrote: »
    Is it possible to browse the match information and recognize matches where marines gathered significant amount of resources compared to aliens, but still lost? Some kind of rule like that could help understand the effect of base rushes.

    Given the data sources I have, @Nintendows and I tried to figure out a rough estimate.

    Using wonitor data there are 48,408 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 24,834 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 51.3% of games in this sample.
    There were 403 alien wins in games ending with aliens on 1 hive, aliens having <4 RT's, marines having >=4 RT's, and were over 10 minutes long.
    403/24,834 = 2%
    An estimated less than 2% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by wonitor data

    Using sponitor data there are 21,287 non-rookie only games between 12-24 players. 11,136 of those games were alien wins. Aliens won 52.3% of games in this sample.
    There were 332 alien wins ending with marines having >=50% more res than aliens, and were over 10 minutes long.
    332/11,136 = 3%
    An estimated less than 3% of alien wins ended in a desperate rush going by by sponitor data.

    I limited to games over 10 minutes, because bilebomb typically comes out between 7 and 9.5 minutes.

    Overall it seems that very few desperate rushes are successful, tunnel or otherwise. If we trust the conditions I have listed, then we can assume that tunnel rushes cause an unexpected alien win in less than 2% of games.

    I am pretty surprised by this myself. Less than 2% of games seems much lower than I expected. The conditions make sense though, but that doesn't mean they are right. What do you guys think of the conditions used?
    Post edited by Nordic on
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • MouseMouse The Lighter Side of Pessimism Join Date: 2002-03-02 Member: 263Members, NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Shadow Posts: 3,488 mod
    Handschuh wrote: »
    Nordic wrote: »
    Mephilles wrote: »
    I'd rly like to know how many % of the alien wins are due to gorge tunnel rush
    Yet we have no stats on gorge tunnels. I gave my best shot at estimating it and the number was really low and people here gave very valid criticism of the stats. Most of you probably remember this, but my point is that we won't get those stats anytime soon.

    The issue is that it happens, and it happens while the teams are incredibly unbalanced... ;-)
    So a number doesn't respresent the "hiveskillvalue"

    I remember days on 8bit server with a baserushtunnel every game... several times... it only worked on every 3rd game... but still....

    It seems to be the default desperation strat.
    -/AUS/- PS_Mouse
    Handschuhskav2
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 6
    Mouse wrote: »
    It seems to be the default desperation strat.
    It is the if you are struggling a little strat in some servers.
    Post edited by Nordic on
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
    skav2
  • CRaZyCAT_RusCRaZyCAT_Rus Russia Join Date: 2013-10-31 Member: 188899Members, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Shadow Posts: 84 Advanced user
    edited March 7
    Not sure I understand the main line of discussion here but as a "hive skilled" player (one time I reached 5000 on the russian servers and then I came to the conclusion that I should artificially reduce it to improve game experience) I would say a couple words about hive skill problems.

    1) Big skill values above 4000 entirely spoils field player's game experience if you playing hive shuffled match because it doesn't make difference between alien or marine or commander. So if you shuffled in a team with average skill below 2500 probably you have to carry them. You can't play commander or your team will suffer from lack of field skill (that's frustrating since often I want to play it). Also you there is a BIG difference between your possibility to carry your team by aliens and by marines (you can shoot plenty of aliens if you medspamed well but most likely you will face problems with killing more than 2 marines for a short period of time as alien).
    In practice it leads to the low alien winrate for that kind of players and high marine winrate. It doesn't affect player's hive skill since player has 50% chance to play marines or aliens. But for example if you are an alien player with 1800 hive skill, server has average skill 2300 and you has one or two players in your team with skill above 3800 there is a very little possibility you will win that round (maybe ~20%).

    2) Whole game has a big problem with marine winrate in low skilled matches (below 2000 I suppose) because marine gameplay is less forgiving mistakes while as alien player in low skilled match you can just play faceroll all the time and SUDDENLY marines lose everything they got. I don't think it's a crucial problem but could be solved too if devs will come up with a separated skill system.
    .trixX.
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 8
    Not sure I understand the main line of discussion here
    The main line of discussion is how realistic this linked theoretical function of win rate by hive skill differences is. Pebl showed graphs that showed that the theoretical matched the data fairly well.
    2) Whole game has a big problem with marine winrate in low skilled matches (below 2000 I suppose)
    We have graphs for that too. This is with all recorded data from wonitor. The average "average game skill" is going to be about 1400 for this graph.
    P7SfE6T.png


    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • moultanomoultano Creator of ns_shiva. Join Date: 2002-12-14 Member: 10806Members, NS1 Playtester, Contributor, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Gold, Pistachionauts Posts: 4,197 Advanced user
    Nordic wrote: »
    Not sure I understand the main line of discussion here
    The main line of discussion is how realistic this linked theoretical function of win rate by hive skill differences is. Pebl showed graphs that showed that the theoretical matched the data fairly well.
    2) Whole game has a big problem with marine winrate in low skilled matches (below 2000 I suppose)
    We have graphs for that too. This is with all recorded data from wonitor. The average "average game skill" is going to be about 1400 for this graph.
    P7SfE6T.png


    That's an awesome graph, and really confirms that rookies are terrible aliens. I wonder if the likelihood of high skill games to have a high skill difference confounds things a little bit? If the skill differences for high skill games are more likely to be far from 0, then this might push the observed average to be closer to 0.5 than it would be naturally since the skill difference would dominate the race bias. Still pretty compelling chart either way. If it's possible you could plot avg(abs(skill difference)) vs avg skill.
  • maD_maX_maD_maX_ Join Date: 2013-04-07 Member: 184678Members Posts: 470 Advanced user
    Question? When is a games skill difference determined for these graphs?

    Could you clean up the graphs by
    A) only showing games where the skill difference only varied by a small percent throughout tge game
    B) used the average skill difference of the game.
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    maD_maX_ wrote: »
    Question? When is a games skill difference determined for these graphs?

    Could you clean up the graphs by
    A) only showing games where the skill difference only varied by a small percent throughout tge game
    B) used the average skill difference of the game.

    As far as I understand it, the skill differences recorded are how the game ended not how it began. So we have no context on if the skill changed throughout the game, only how it ended.
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • MouseMouse The Lighter Side of Pessimism Join Date: 2002-03-02 Member: 263Members, NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Shadow Posts: 3,488 mod
    Nordic wrote: »
    maD_maX_ wrote: »
    Question? When is a games skill difference determined for these graphs?

    Could you clean up the graphs by
    A) only showing games where the skill difference only varied by a small percent throughout tge game
    B) used the average skill difference of the game.

    As far as I understand it, the skill differences recorded are how the game ended not how it began. So we have no context on if the skill changed throughout the game, only how it ended.

    Iirc there's a trend that shows that aliens tend to win longer games. I wonder how the average game length changes as skill levels change; then whether there's a correlation between skill level, game length, and win rates.
    e.g.: Games are shorter in low skill games, which leads to more marine wins.
    -/AUS/- PS_Mouse
  • HandschuhHandschuh Join Date: 2005-03-08 Member: 44338Members, NS2 Playtester Posts: 330 Advanced user
    edited March 8
    If the Data is only recorded right before the game ends then the relevance of these game-statistics can be questioned as well.
    .trixX.Stupid
  • HobbesonHobbeson New York Join Date: 2015-12-04 Member: 209723Members Posts: 46 Advanced user
    Handschuh wrote: »
    If the Data is only recorded right before the game ends then the relevance of these game-statistics can be questioned as well.

    ^

    Why does it calculate this way? The hive skill at the end of the round seems like the least relevant skill value for predicting wins. And it seems like players on the losing team more frequently quit before the end. (I'm not sure whether low or high elo players would have a greater tendency to quit before the end, but just given that there are many more of the former, I'd guess that late game rage quits tend to drag up the losing team's elo.)
    Handschuh.trixX.
  • MephillesMephilles Germany Join Date: 2013-08-07 Member: 186634Members, NS2 Map Tester Posts: 885 Advanced user
    There are death heatmaps in wonitor so it definately is not only recording at the end of the round. It is sending the data to wonitor at the end of the round though.
    return to zero
  • NordicNordic Long term camping in Kodiak Join Date: 2012-05-13 Member: 151995Members, NS2 Playtester, NS2 Map Tester, Reinforced - Supporter, Reinforced - Silver, Reinforced - Shadow Posts: 4,586 Advanced user
    edited March 9
    Handschuh wrote: »
    If the Data is only recorded right before the game ends then the relevance of these game-statistics can be questioned as well.
    Always question the data to ensure that the stats are good. Wonitor is our best dataset. Understanding what data wonitor collects and how it collects it is important to know if the stats are worth anything. With the stats I post, I usually(hopefully) usually say something about potential problems with the stats or data validity if I think it is questionable.
    Hobbeson wrote: »
    Why does it calculate this way?
    Wonitor is designed to be performance friendly. Wonitor collects its data at the end of a round to not affect game performance during the round.
    Mephilles wrote: »
    There are death heatmaps in wonitor so it definately is not only recording at the end of the round. It is sending the data to wonitor at the end of the round though.
    The deathmaps are for those servers who enable wonitor 2.0 which has additional features but also additional bandwidth and data requirements. Not every server operator is able or willing to record with wonitor 2.0.

    @Brute made wonitor. He could answer these questions better than I could.

    Post edited by Nordic on
    From my perspective UWE has been trying to both with what little resources they have given to the game. They don't have an AAA budget, let alone an indie game budget. They have the budget of a game that has been out 6 years. I want to say, don't half ass two things, whole ass one thing. I just don't think they have the resources to do it. Unlike many of the people on the forums, I guess I am just happy they are at least trying even though I may not like what they end up doing.
  • MouseMouse The Lighter Side of Pessimism Join Date: 2002-03-02 Member: 263Members, NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators, Squad Five Blue, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Shadow Posts: 3,488 mod
    Mouse wrote: »
    Nordic wrote: »
    maD_maX_ wrote: »
    Question? When is a games skill difference determined for these graphs?

    Could you clean up the graphs by
    A) only showing games where the skill difference only varied by a small percent throughout tge game
    B) used the average skill difference of the game.

    As far as I understand it, the skill differences recorded are how the game ended not how it began. So we have no context on if the skill changed throughout the game, only how it ended.

    Iirc there's a trend that shows that aliens tend to win longer games. I wonder how the average game length changes as skill levels change; then whether there's a correlation between skill level, game length, and win rates.
    e.g.: Games are shorter in low skill games, which leads to more marine wins.

    @Mephilles did some research:
    8d129fd839.jpg

    b96ac25bf9.jpg

    9eae1a7aba.jpg

    a86325bcec.jpg
    -/AUS/- PS_Mouse
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