NSL Invitational Grand Final goes Intercontinental! - NS2
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Join Date: 2013-01-29 Member: 182599Members, Super Administrators, Reinforced - Diamond
Join Date: 2013-01-29 Member: 182599Members, Super Administrators, Reinforced - Diamond
NSL Invitational Grand Final goes Intercontinental! - NS2
For over ten years, Natural Selection has been played competitively. For over ten years, there has been a ‘European scene’ and a ‘North American scene.’ Today, the barrier between the two came crashing down.
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After spending 14 hours casting amazing games this weekend, I don't have the energy to eat this troll bait. Could someone please post the alien win loss ratios from the non-ping differential games so that other people visiting this thread don't actually believe this trash?
Very psyched about this. The event last fall was great fun, and this should be too.
Congratulations to Nexzil and Archaea!
The reason you saw so many marine wins in certain rounds really comes down to teams just not being as good at aliens - particularly skulks. If you've played countless rounds for 4 months without having to worry about improving your alien play much as you can generally win those matches, suddenly when the inherit alien advantage is removed you may find yourself in a loosing position on that side.
The coin toss effect on the games was unfortunate, but I don't believe the outcomes would have changed much (besides Hg vs Nexzil in the semi's perhaps, but thats a totally different story). Hopefully this is the last time you will see the flip over side AND server.
More importantly here, congrats to all and I am excited to see the finals.
- Total = 86
- Marine = 54
- Alien = 32
- Alien winrate = 37%
Excluding the high ping differential matches (e.g. removing the ones between NA and EU teams) I get
- Total = 47
- Marine = 29
- Alien = 18
- Alien winrate = 38%
However, since there is so little data, the range in which the winrate cannot be rejected from being balanced (e.g. outside the 95% CI of balanced) is large.
86 = [40%-60%]
47 = [36%-64%]
In this situation, I'd say that including all the matches suggests that early B240 favors marines in high-level comp play, but there isn't enough data to tell how much is due to high-ping differentials.
I presume this comes from ns2stats with sorting by B240 and competitive (and date, 2/3/2013-4/3/2013) as thats close to what I get. However, I've noticed that data includes quite a bit of non-competitive games including gathers and, for reasons I don't understand, public matches from popular servers like KKG and HBZ. I wanted to see if I could get it to be more precise towards competitive play (e.g. tourny matches and pcws), so I restricted it to just the following servers (e.g. those that hosted at least one Invitational game):
Be BAGUETTE my friend powered by NS2-Fr.com
#NS2.fi Match Server
All-In ENSL Server - Chicago, IL | NS2Servers.com
Archaea Private
Duplex > Hall of Shame
Godar - Private
Heidis private Farm [HBZ]
Hg's Private Shade
Nexzil Gaming | Central | Powered by NS2Servers.com
Nexzil Gaming | East Coast | Powered by NS2Servers.com
NSL Match - Frankfurt - #1
NSL Match - Frankfurt - #2
NSL Match - London - #1
NSL Match - London - #2
NSL Match - NA East - #1
Saunamen.Priv 2
Team Inversion Private #2 | Sponsored by NS2Servers.com
[FR] Cocorico, le poulet qui renait de ses cendres
From which I get:
- Total = 133
- Marine = 79
- Alien = 54
- Alien winrate = 41%
Which corresponds to a range of:
133 = [41%-59%]
So it's barely on the edge of being a statistically significant result.
tl;dr version = Balanced changed in marines favor, but it isn't completely clear if this is a robust result. FEED ME MORE DATA!
- Total = 140
- Marine = 82
- Alien = 58
- Alien winrate = 41%
fffffffffffffff.....
I'm thankful for ns2stats, but filtered results seem to be annoying inconsistent. The only thing I can think of is that maybe we have different selections under the mod list (I put mine to select all).
Including non-tourny pcw's is certainly an issue, but what also concerns me is that ns2stats is also missing tourny matches. For whatever reason, 14 of the 86 invitational match stats didn't make it to the ns2stats database/website. That's why I decided to go through and manually count and correct the tourny win/loss stats using a combo of ns2stats, the ENSL website, and the twitch casts to ensure I had an accurate dataset.
All proper NS players are masters of misinformation.
whisper
Like this.
Or that. I'd love to see that.
Maaaannn. Have to wait all the way till April to see this epic matchup? Time for hibernation mode.
Fourgorge makes two points:
1) Aliens performed worse on average
2) Nexzil won on a coin flip
Let's OBJECTIVELY analyse what he said.
1) Scardybob showed that marines won a lot more matches. Though Fana disagreed with the conclusions of Scardy and Fourgorge, his stats also showed the game being in marine favour (though not as much as Scardy's did).
So clearly point 1 isn't indefensible so let's stop decrying the poor guy...
Peripheral point: Hg beat Arc when they are marines. Arc beat Hg when they are marines.
Arc beat Sauna as marines. Sauna beat Arc as marines.
How about we put it another way? Arc only ever lost when they were aliens...And three times, was it?
I do think IT COULD JUST BE changes that means certain strategies as aliens didn't work as well, whereas the same old marine ones would have and of course people had not the time to practise - ergo it's not so much that it's unbalanced, but perhaps that people weren't able to adapt in time
2) Saunamen won 3 of their 3 marine rounds.
Nexzil won 4 of their 4 marine rounds.
How can anyone say they did not win on a coin flip?
I actually wanted to see Nexzil and Arc in the final but it's a shame it had to happen in this way, ESPECIALLY as Saunamen were playing so incredibly late.
We mustn't fret too much, however - this is only the second invitational and it was a great one at that!
I know that in many tournaments the players wear earbuds that have the feed from their PC and over the top they wear noise-cancelling earphones that play loud music to drown out any noise from the crowd/other team.
And I think Dragon makes the most sense here. His post is spot on: most teams basicly havent been focusing on improving the alien gameplay enough the last months, cus it hasnt been that difficult playing aliens.
So all the stats throwing from ppl here, I dont think you should interprete those as marines imba, but instead as most teams are weaker as aliens atm. We as a community still haven´t figured out a better way of skulking for this patch, neither have we had the time to learn how to properly use all the new toys we have been given.
Now, marines might still be OP, and we have somewhat strong inclinations of them beeing so (medpack changes, skulk movement, crags) but wait a few weeks before jumping to any conlusions.
Impossible
NA vs. EU
Such classic. This is the best ns and ns2 has to offer.
Anyone that says marines wasn't dominant this tournament is talking out of their ass. The combined effects of ping and a patch drop 2 days before the tournament (mine buffs and skulk movement nerfs) made it marine heavy, which was especially prevalent in the Saunamen vs Nexzil matchups.
GL Nexzil. Make us proud.
... Nexzil
(I still love you Archaea).