Peak Oil Vs Focus Fusion
illuminex
Join Date: 2004-03-13 Member: 27317Members, Constellation
Join Date: 2004-03-13 Member: 27317Members, Constellation
<div class="IPBDescription">The Ultimate Battle</div> For those of you thinking this is a funny thread, I'm sorry, go look somewhere else.
Peak Oil: when production of cheap oil "peaks," meaning the most that can ever be produced is being produced.
What it means: The peak will be a plateau, after which there is a decline in oil production.
Why is it important: Worldwide oil production is about to peak, according to geologists, economists, oil companies, OPEC, and major governments. There is no replacement energy source currently available that will be able to handle the increasing worldwide demand for oil.
This has nothing to do with the earth running out of oil. It is about the earth running out of CHEAP oil. It is an inevitable fact of relying on a nonrenewable resource.
Focus Fusion: Breakthrough nuclear based technology.
What is it: uses plasma heated up to 1 billion degrees Kelvin fuses atoms of Boron11 and Hydrogen together to create energy.
Why is it important: NO RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS INVOLVED. Extremely economical; estimated cost of a reactor powerful enough to power a town is less than a million dollars, with the reactor able to fit into a residential garage. The fuel required to power it is limitless. The reactor emits Helium, the second most common element in the universe.
What do they have to do with each other? In the coming energy crisis (confirmed by Exxon/Mobile, the Bush Administration, geologists, etc) Focus Fusion may be the only hope for saving a drowning worldwide economy.
For more information on Peak Oil:
<a href='http://www.peakoil.net' target='_blank'>Peak Oil</a>
There are hundreds of sites on Peak Oil, but I believe this is the most balanced one.
For more information on Focus Fusion:
<a href='http://www.focusfusion.org' target='_blank'>Focus Fusion</a>
Please spread the word about Peak Oil and Focus Fusion. Oil companies and the US DOE are trying to harm Focus Fusion research.
Peak Oil: when production of cheap oil "peaks," meaning the most that can ever be produced is being produced.
What it means: The peak will be a plateau, after which there is a decline in oil production.
Why is it important: Worldwide oil production is about to peak, according to geologists, economists, oil companies, OPEC, and major governments. There is no replacement energy source currently available that will be able to handle the increasing worldwide demand for oil.
This has nothing to do with the earth running out of oil. It is about the earth running out of CHEAP oil. It is an inevitable fact of relying on a nonrenewable resource.
Focus Fusion: Breakthrough nuclear based technology.
What is it: uses plasma heated up to 1 billion degrees Kelvin fuses atoms of Boron11 and Hydrogen together to create energy.
Why is it important: NO RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS INVOLVED. Extremely economical; estimated cost of a reactor powerful enough to power a town is less than a million dollars, with the reactor able to fit into a residential garage. The fuel required to power it is limitless. The reactor emits Helium, the second most common element in the universe.
What do they have to do with each other? In the coming energy crisis (confirmed by Exxon/Mobile, the Bush Administration, geologists, etc) Focus Fusion may be the only hope for saving a drowning worldwide economy.
For more information on Peak Oil:
<a href='http://www.peakoil.net' target='_blank'>Peak Oil</a>
There are hundreds of sites on Peak Oil, but I believe this is the most balanced one.
For more information on Focus Fusion:
<a href='http://www.focusfusion.org' target='_blank'>Focus Fusion</a>
Please spread the word about Peak Oil and Focus Fusion. Oil companies and the US DOE are trying to harm Focus Fusion research.
Comments
Of course they are. Like all corporations oil companies care only about money, and if progress gets in the way of that they'll convince their buddies in office to "fix" the problem.
EDIT: Just so we're clear, by "buddies in office" I mean congress as well as the presidential administration, so party affiliation doesn't figure in.
Hydrogen gas must be electrolyzed from water before it can be burned. Turning water into H2 is very energetically expensive. In the end you'll have to input that energy from somewhere else. We can't harvest H2, we can only make it.
Given deep thought tonight concerning these issues, I have finally come to understand exactly what is happening in the world today with the advant of these new technologies coupled with wars of the past, and will at some point in the next few days get these into text. I will then post them, in segments, into a new thread here in the discussion forum.
Be patient, this will be good stuff <!--emo&:D--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo-->
The Oil companies
As it stands, they have the most to lose, billions of dollars have been invested by them in order to supply the world with oil and oil based goods, almost overnight all their machinery becomes scrap, needless to say they DONT want that to happen. Now, let's say they do embrace Fusion, think how the Plastic industry is gonna die all together! Cheap, disposable plastic is going to disappear, or become prohibitivly expensive, the chemicals it's made out of, the byproduct of fuel production, would disappear. No gas = no byproducts = 5k Airsoft pellets for 100$
Acursed intertwined web of material production, unless an alternative can be found for the economical, structural, and general properties of Plastic, we're gonna be somewhat screwed....
5k plastic pellets may cost $100, but 5k paper pellets would be cheaper :D
We are as a species incredibly intelligent, but limited by our inate greed. I for one would love to see focus fusion replace fossil fuels, if what they claim is true...
I also imagine it'd be many times safer than fission or well...any other power source. If I'm wrong, feel free to correct me on that.
For one, a number of interesting steps into the direction of the refinment of oil out of organic waste are being done. We had an interesting <a href='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=30414&st=0&hl=' target='_blank'>topic</a> on the subject a while back. Be sure to read the article, it's fascinating.
Seeing this, I doubt that oil will dissapear from the equation, which does also mean that the ecological questions posed by it won't answer themselves.
Second, while it's true that a chemical refinement of hydrogen will remain unproductive for as long as we have no gross oversupply of electrical energy, there are alternatives. It's a pity I don't have an English article on it, but there is for example a pilot-project based on algae which emit hydrogen as a byproduct of their photosynthesis in Nethersaxony (Germany). As this biochemical exploit of the suns energy is by far more effective than anything a human has so far devised, and that the biomass of the algea themselves equals grade-A fertilizer, I can see such and similiar approaches having quite an impact on the future energy situation.
Third, we should consider the more 'classical' alternative energy sources such as conventional solar power, wind power, or geothermal systems, and their impact on immobile systems currently relying on oil.
My big qualm with fusion, any kind of fusion, is that <i>every</i> step in this direction so far consisted of a first welling of euphorism ("It's easy, and it's cheap!"), followed by the discovery of dire practical problems. The Science center Karlsruhe, one of Europes biggest centers of all manners of nuclear sciences, for example, <i>has</i> a fusion reactor - problem being that it costs currently more energy to power the force fields (I'm not making this up, they're using inward-twisted electromagnetic fields) necessary to control the plasma require more energy than the reactor itself produces. That said, I'm sure that this technology will reach a suficiently sophisticated state to be brought to practical application, I'm just hesistant to trust any statement on when this will be the case.
Edit: I'm reading it right now, and it -is- extremely fascinating.
Bingo. Different energy types will contribute a portion of the total energy based on things like efficiency(economics), pollution, installable base etc.
Anyway about the focus fusion stuff... I did graduate research in nuclear fusion (inertial confinement) so trust me on the following...
Scientists have been performing fusion experiments and doing simulations of many different kinds over the past more-than-FORTY years and are sloooooowly slooowly making progress towards a fusion power plant. There's not just one "best method" either, although the golden child of fusion research has always been the tokamak (round magnetic coily thing in the shape of a torus keeps plasma intact long enough for fusion, and IT is still at LEAST decades off from actually being used for commercial energy production. The other main research area for fusion power is in inertial confinement fusion, where you aim a large number of high power laser or ion beams at a small target of fuel to blast it to smithereens and get a fusion reaction like a mini nuclear (fusion)bomb.
The fact is, the technology necessary for these fusion plants is in a field all of its own, and everything has to be designed from scratch. It's like someone coming up with an idea for a computer in the stone age. All the physics and technology has to be developed before we can come up with a feasible plant design.
Ah, so back to "focus" fusion. Honestly, if I showed that to my previous colleagues, they would laugh. It's a little fringe. Another fringy fusion method that has poked its head up is "bubble" fusion. Just google bubble fusion and you'll find some articles. I did research in that too. The main scientists involved were psyched two years ago when some of their first results were published, and I can tell you they're still trying to prove that any nuclear events at all take place during that phenomenon.
Well, eventually we will have fusion power... but by then you'll be lucky if you can still have your fun without viagra. That's my timeframe for ya. (Assuming you're in your twenties.)
AH HA almost forgot my little hydrogen fuel cell rant...
HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS ARE RECHARGEABLE BATTERIES!!! They do not make energy! There is no energy source there! All it does is make it so you can run your car without polluting the air by burning gasoline but if you have to charge your fuel cells with power that ultimately is produced at a power plant that burns coal or oil, who gives a flying ****!?? Ok, rant done.
edit: And the US DOE is trying to hurt focus fusion? It's just treating it the same way it treats zero-point energy machines and anti-gravity research... it doesn't fund them; they are fringe man, fringe.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->they are fringe man, fringe.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->game over man, game over!<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The technology and techniques of Focus Fusion is new, and was only theory until 2001, wherein the team who is currently working on this technology was able to get plasma to over 1 billion K.
The reason that most people have not a clue of this new technology is because of politics (yes, there is politics in science). The many men/women who are invested in Tokomak technology do *not* want to see funding removed due to more efficient, economical technology. Science, contrary to popular belief, has often resembled a fascist dictatorship. Research what Chaoticians in the 1970's had to go through because Chaos Theory essentially made many other methods of looking at the world completely obsolete.
Juice, I have no doubt that collegues of yours would laugh, just as Chatocians were laughed about. However, I'm not going to wait around for the Tokomak to become useful, because by that time there will not be much use for one. Think of the ramifications when oil supply cannot meet oil demand. Think of the fact that there are no other energy sources currently available that are as cheap or efficient as oil. The Tokomak will probably never have a real future as a commercially viable source of energy, and "fringe science" is probably a better way to go then to invest in dinosaur technology like the tokomak.
If you really want to look at the company, the credentials, and the technology, here's a link to their <a href='http://integrityresinst.crosswinds.net/FocusFusion-Ver6.htm#_Toc42793578' target='_blank'>business plan.</a>
Given deep thought tonight concerning these issues, I have finally come to understand exactly what is happening in the world today with the advant of these new technologies coupled with wars of the past, and will at some point in the next few days get these into text. I will then post them, in segments, into a new thread here in the discussion forum.
Be patient, this will be good stuff <!--emo&:D--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/biggrin.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='biggrin.gif' /><!--endemo--> <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
<a href='http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2004/2/24/14175/0884' target='_blank'>The Hydrogen Economy (kuro5hin)</a>
hydrogen power CAN work, but it would more likely be in the form of a hydrocarbon (diesel) - electric engine
diesel engines are more efficient than gasoline, but are harder to make. the smaller diesel engine in the diesel-electric engine will drop the price significantly
Public based transportation like trains will become increasingly popular. You can bet that newer rail systems, using magnetic fields, will begin to appear more and more throughout the lower 48 states. Segway's will also leap in sales while dropping in price.
This is also part of a changeover to a mental world, instead of a physical world. Think back to all the times older people have made a negative remark about all the time spent on the computer. Why is that? They live in the [I]physical</i> world, while the digital generation and onwards live in an increasingly <i>mental</i> world. In an apparant contradiction the world as a whole will grow closer by way of the internet while growing farther apart physically. Physical closeness will begin to be surpassed by mental closeness. Our generation is more apt to be closer friends with a person in California than a person two houses over.
The world is tying together in ways that most people cannot even comprehend. There are patterns even in the chaos of our world, and we are governed by them without even thinking about it.
Whoa that's definitely true.. I have lots of friends in California!
.. wait... I live in CA...
You seem to be using the impending decline of fossil fuel sources of energy as an argument that focus fusion is a viable approach. It is possible that we get stuck with nothing (no viable energy technologies) and everyone just gets screwed, hehe. I think it's worth it to put effort into continued progress on projects that we have been researching for decades, and not throw them away for a new toy with unknown prospects.
Seems to me: like most fringe people (and scam artists, I might add), Mr. Lerner tries to sound like he is multiple people, i.e. "THE FOCUS FUSION SOCIETY" and "LAWRENCEVILLE PLASMA PHYSICS" lol. When, in fact, he is president, vice-president, treasurer, secretary, and sole member. No wait, he has one physicist and one nuclear engineer listed, along with his webmaster. He also cites conspiracy theory as reason why he hasn't been funded... and this is something to watch out for when dealing with fringe science... IT'S ALL A CONSPIRACY MAN!
HOWEVER...... Lerner's science is actually really good. There's no way you could tell that his method is feasible in a fusion power plant until he gets to do some of his experiments for which he has requested funding, but it's definitely worth a shot. I'm not laughing off focus fusion because the DOE isn't pouring $$$ into it. And you're right, there is much politicking around in science. If I were the DOE, I would have given him his shot. It says something that the JPL has noticed him, though. Too bad smart people like him didn't get his PhD and get a job at some national lab so he could actually have the credentials that big money gravitates toward. (damnit! that's like me.. and I've always appreciated fringe science more anyway... maybe I can be his 4th member! hehe)
Hehe, go for it, I think it would be great for you to be on his team. If you read through, they're currently in Italy doing tests with a university right now. I certainly would love to travel around the world testing groundbreaking technology (I just hate all science classes I've ever taken <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->).
However, if I can manage to make an extra $40k this year through the businesses I'm starting, I'd love to invest it in LPP. In 5 years, those shares will be worth so much money.
Lol, this link is useless to anyone without a degree in physics, with at least some beginning work in plasma/fusion and nuclear science. (i happen to fall into this category, but still!)
edit:
L.P.P., yeah YOU KNOW ME, it's LPP... sorry couldn't resist
Nemesis, I will respond to your post when I have the extra time :\. I'm finishing two English papers, two papers for a class I've just taken about Vietnam, AND completing my 14 tone system for music. I should be able to reply adequately to your question in a week, but I would hope by that time that you would have thoroughly explored the reasons why for yourself. <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/smile.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile.gif' /><!--endemo-->
I don't doubt that it's possible to understand science or scientific journal type documents like this one WITHOUT higher education. But... it would take a ton of work. Most science journals are basically in a different language. And a physics course is not enough. It's like showing someone some complex piece of sheet music when they don't play an instrument and don't know how to read sheet music. Of course, they could learn what the bar lines and symbols mean and how long certain notes are in relation to the others, but they wouldn't REALLY understand the composition or even what it sounds like.
You might say aha! MeV! That's energy units and I know how it relates to other units etc... but really... you won't be able to make any judgements on what Lerner is proposing. I can recommend about 10 textbooks that will get you started though <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/wink.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink.gif' /><!--endemo--> I'm not trying to be science-elitist here but it's complicated stuff and takes lots of work to understand at a high enough level. It's the kind of thing you need to know well enough to have a "feeling" for what's going on, like plasma electrons at some range of temperatures are your best friend and you just know what they would like to do in a certain situation.
And now that I read that article in more detail, I don't like it as much :/
AND NOW... I GIVE YOU...
<a href='http://www.physicsweb.org/article/news/8/3/3' target='_blank'>BUBBLE FUSION</a>!!!! WOOT! I researched this stuff for a year working directly under the guy directly under Taleyarkhan...
Keep in mind this wouldn't be a power source, just a fusion source.
Anyways, focus fusion reactors would most likely serve individual communities, so they would be far smaller, require less workers to maintain them, and be far, far cheaper. Also, due to the materials being used for the fusion process, the amount of radiation produced is nothing that a little lead can't stop <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html//emoticons/wink.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink.gif' /><!--endemo-->, and does not last long at all. I'm talking seconds after the reactor is shut down, you can walk into the room, no safety gear or anything.
The other reason I got interested in it was because of the possible uses in space. Space is the final frontier, and it is about time we privatized the space industry and worked on moving beyond earth industries like mining.