Rumors Vs Statistics

confidentialconfidential Join Date: 2002-11-23 Member: 9720Members
I hear a lot of moaning about marines always win, aliens always win, this always happens, this is unfair, blah blah blah. I also hear a lot of "x wins y% of the time." Has anyone actually conducted any studies, maybe put a counter on servers so that it records each time a side wins?

I'd really like to see some actual facts about who wins what percent of the time. Maybe it would help with deciding how to balance the game. Maybe a win counter built into 1.04 that automatically sends results to the dev team periodically would be a useful thing.

From now on - just out of curiosity - I'm going to keep a simple tally record of wins for alien and marines. I play on a wide variety of servers so there shouldn't be much in the line of bias due to playing with specific people all the time. Maybe something interesting will come out of it.

-

ol|confidential

Comments

  • TomtenTomten Join Date: 2002-11-10 Member: 8138Members
    Statistics can't be acurate in this case, because the commander and gorge is so important for the teams success. Thing is, many gorges and ALOT more cmdr's suck. This cause the whole statistic to become invalid, since it does not show how balanced the game is, just how much people stink at command.
  • FrahgFrahg Join Date: 2002-12-03 Member: 10432Members, Constellation
    Statistically you could factor that out by recording "enough" games...
  • Nemesis_ZeroNemesis_Zero Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
    edited December 2002
    Nonetheless, it allows for at least some comparative deductions (p.e.: "Apparently, it's easier to suck at commanding than to suck at gorging."). Last time he talked about it, Flayra said he was trying to get some servers to run statistic programs for him to verify stuff. No idea whether this is already realized or not.
  • OlljOllj our themepark-stalking nightmare Fade Join Date: 2002-12-12 Member: 10696Members
    edited December 2002
    I "recorded" enough games on publics.

    Theres a simple statistic when you play 1.03 with deafault settings on public servers:

    If there are <b>30 ppl or more on the server, Marines allways win</b> (97%) . (speed and flexibility is too powerfull then)
    If there are <b>10 ppl or less on the server, Aliens allways win</b> (97%) . (phasegate and teamwork is too powerful then)
    18-22 ppl is well ballanced.

    Depends on: there are no idiots on the server and everyone knows the basic map layot and teamwork.
  • Nemesis_ZeroNemesis_Zero Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
    Apparently, it's also possible to spread rumors in the form of statistics.
  • confidentialconfidential Join Date: 2002-11-23 Member: 9720Members
    <!--QuoteBegin--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Thing is, many gorges and ALOT more cmdr's suck<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->

    I can't say I've seen disproportionate numbers of awful commanders...

    Have any facts to support that idea tomten <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' valign='absmiddle' alt='tounge.gif'><!--endemo-->

    -

    ol|confidential
  • FrahgFrahg Join Date: 2002-12-03 Member: 10432Members, Constellation
    edited December 2002
    <b>When there are 16 gorges and 14 marines the Axis wins 84.3% of the time.</b>

    p.s. Had to bold it to make it seem more <b>official</b>.
  • confidentialconfidential Join Date: 2002-11-23 Member: 9720Members
    <!--QuoteBegin--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->When there are 16 gorges and 14 marines the Axis wins 84.3% of the time.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->

    Exactly. I see that all the time but who the hell knows whether it is accurate or not? Personally I don't trust much of what I see out here; it's very easy to get a "feel" for marines winning 40% or 30% or whatever you may think (that is not my personal feeling by the way, but estimates like that have very little value when it comes to this anyhow) and then posting it as a statistic.

    -

    ol|confidential
  • death1death1 Join Date: 2002-11-16 Member: 8920Members
    teamwork wins 99.9% of the time

    -d$
  • TomtenTomten Join Date: 2002-11-10 Member: 8138Members
    I know that most commanders loose only because they are bad commanders. Almost all commanders I see do one of the following

    1. TF in mainbase

    2. TF at every resource node

    3. No phasegates

    4. No mines, and instead waste tons on money on expensive turrets

    5. Don't talk to the team, don't tell them what's happening, hand out very few orders.

    Beeing a good commander is REALLY easy, even a pitiful team can put up a fight if the CMDR knows what he's doing.
  • Rico1Rico1 NS Oldtimer Join Date: 2002-05-24 Member: 664Members
    Actually, im almost 95% sure that Flayra already has some kind of statistic program that records the win/loss ratio on certain servers. I read it somewhere in a forum post, but dont take my word for it, i could be wrong.
  • ZerglinZerglin Join Date: 2002-12-13 Member: 10754Members
    It's ridiculously easy to win as marine on large servers. The fact that marines can spawn faster doesn't help and the lopsided resource model is even worse.
  • FrahgFrahg Join Date: 2002-12-03 Member: 10432Members, Constellation
    It seems more logical to me that aliens would spawn faster. Aliens grow from the hive: where do these marines come from? If they're reinforcements from some place off-site jesus man, send in some HA with them! If they're being created by the portal, portal should be tweaked to make HMGs too.

    --Frahg
  • Nemesis_ZeroNemesis_Zero Old European Join Date: 2002-01-25 Member: 75Members, Retired Developer, NS1 Playtester, Constellation
    <a href='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/index.php?act=ST&f=5&t=17557' target='_blank'>/me points at I&S.</a>
    Nobody doubts there has to be done something about the spawnrates - just don't discuss this in a completely unrelated topic.
  • Spud88Spud88 Join Date: 2002-12-30 Member: 11609Members
    I'm an alien player and out of about 10 or so games ive played we've always won. All these games have had about 10 people in them. Now, either I'm a legend (unlikely) or marines need large teams to actually be able to take out a well defended hive (more likely). I think the problem lies in how many off and def chambers gorges can construct at a site: sure there's a limit on it but it seems way too high for small teams, and because the teams are small, the 1 or 2 gorges get resourses very quickly. Result: the the 4 marines attacking the hive can't do anything before the skulks are on their backs, aliens expand fast with huge amounts of resources and 5 Onos attack the marine base. I should imagine the reverse of teh resource problem would happen in larger teams: the gorges would get very few resources and teh huge number of marines would smash throught the measly defences. I think the source of the problem is that aliens collect resources individually, marines collectively; and the limit on alien towers is not proportionate to the number of players.
  • Naughty_BremboNaughty_Brembo Join Date: 2002-05-30 Member: 701Members
    <!--QuoteBegin--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->When there are 16 gorges and 14 marines the Axis wins 84.3% of the time.

    p.s. Had to bold it to make it seem more official.
    <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->

    Who are the axis, anyway? Them aliens have a German accent???

    "Männer, greif an!"

    /NB
  • confidentialconfidential Join Date: 2002-11-23 Member: 9720Members
    So does anyone know for sure whether there is some sort of statistics tool being used at the moment?
  • skulkswerenerfedskulkswerenerfed Join Date: 2002-12-11 Member: 10633Members
    <!--QuoteBegin--confidential+Dec 30 2002, 01:36 PM--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (confidential @ Dec 30 2002, 01:36 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->I hear a lot of moaning about marines always win, aliens always win, this always happens, this is unfair, blah blah blah. I also hear a lot of "x wins y% of the time." Has anyone actually conducted any studies, maybe put a counter on servers so that it records each time a side wins?

    I'd really like to see some actual facts about who wins what percent of the time. Maybe it would help with deciding how to balance the game. Maybe a win counter built into 1.04 that automatically sends results to the dev team periodically would be a useful thing.

    From now on - just out of curiosity - I'm going to keep a simple tally record of wins for alien and marines. I play on a wide variety of servers so there shouldn't be much in the line of bias due to playing with specific people all the time. Maybe something interesting will come out of it.

    -

    ol|confidential<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
    1. marine aim
    end
  • confidentialconfidential Join Date: 2002-11-23 Member: 9720Members
    edited December 2002
    <!--QuoteBegin--></span><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Start watching recorded demos. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->

    But the objective here is to look for general trends over many games (100 minimum, many more is preferable) not the results of a few recorded demoes.
  • KenichiKenichi This is not a pie. Join Date: 2002-11-01 Member: 2941Members, NS1 Playtester
    Ok simple thing. DONT BASE IT OFF PUBS. Seriously. In clan games i see both teams win an even number of times. Aliens and Marines win equally. If you use pubs as a rule of thumb you are accounting for far to many variables. For instance, a **obscenity** gorge or commander, players who dont follow allong as a team, lack of personally skill. To many variables. Pubbing is not true NS by any means. If you see a good clan game you will see the true difference.
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