There's also a related question:
In a balanced game, how soon can you predict the length of the game, with 75% accuracy on average?
A longer game implies more back-and-forth to the gameplay; which in turn, makes it harder to predict who will ultimately win.
@moultano it might be easier to make a time bounded prediction. Instead of asking "Who's going to win, after n minutes?', perhaps ask "Who's going to be winning at 10 minutes?".
Except that the two teams perform differently depending on the stage of the game.
@moultano it might be easier to make a time bounded prediction. Instead of asking "Who's going to win, after n minutes?', perhaps ask "Who's going to be winning at 10 minutes?".
If you were just going to do that I have statistics for that. I can tell historically who wins most an X time of the game.
I have global statistics but in the short run here is the same information from TTO servers.
@moultano it might be easier to make a time bounded prediction. Instead of asking "Who's going to win, after n minutes?', perhaps ask "Who's going to be winning at 10 minutes?".
If you were just going to do that I have statistics for that. I can tell historically who wins most an X time of the game.
Then perhaps it'd be possible to use each team's hive scores as inputs to bias the historical stats. From there using the biased stats to determine which team will win & approximately when.
I knew this poll was flawed to begin with but the more I think about it the more flawed I realize it is. I question its usefulness it deciding upon a parameter.
Not only did most people vote not fully understanding the intent of the poll, but no one is voting on the same assumptions.
Some people are voting with with high skill players in mind, some are voting with low skill players in mind. Some are voting with high player counts in mind, others are voting with low player counts in mind. People are also voting with different assumptions of what balanced teams are and how they play. My point is that no one is on the same page.
Balanced gameplay is a myth. It is something to be sought for but never to be found. Imbalances to varying degrees will always be found be it because of players, maps, or even the time of day.
@moultano it might be easier to make a time bounded prediction. Instead of asking "Who's going to win, after n minutes?', perhaps ask "Who's going to be winning at 10 minutes?".
Like I said previously in a wordy post: You'd have to weigh it against the times in the round that are inherently biased to one team or the other.
For instance, on average (meaning across all player counts) Marines go from 65%+ winrate @ 5 minutes, to 38% winrate after 20 minutes.
That's the issue I see with seeking out an answer to this question.
It just varies too greatly to be reliable right now, and even slight imbalances (that will exist! As nordic pointed out) will either compound or lessen these inherently advantageous times in a round for each respective team - making prediction incredibly difficult, or at the very least incredibly context sensitive.
I knew this poll was flawed to begin with but the more I think about it the more flawed I realize it is. I question its usefulness it deciding upon a parameter.
Not only did most people vote not fully understanding the intent of the poll, but no one is voting on the same assumptions.
Some people are voting with with high skill players in mind, some are voting with low skill players in mind. Some are voting with high player counts in mind, others are voting with low player counts in mind. People are also voting with different assumptions of what balanced teams are and how they play. My point is that no one is on the same page.
Balanced gameplay is a myth. It is something to be sought for but never to be found. Imbalances to varying degrees will always be found be it because of players, maps, or even the time of day.
This parameter mostly exists to set incentives correctly, the skill system basically works with or without it, so in some sense its ideal to base it on perceptions rather than reality. I don't want people to ever feel that it's in their interest to quit the game in order to keep their hive score high, so if people feel that the game is lost after 4 minutes, that to me is enough reason to set the parameter there, even if in reality those players are wrong about the game being lost.
I understand the point of the parameters. I don't think the poll answers the question you are looking for.
The poll has not given you a unified perception where most think it is at 4 minutes. It has given you 30+ perceptions that happens to have most people say 4 minutes.
I voted 1 minute without reading properly. I would of voted 4 minutes if I read the OP properly. I was not the only one. You even had to qualify what the OP meant twice.
Given the poll question I could easily argue that the answer should be 1 minute, 4 minutes, 8 minutes, or no time limit with common circumstances within the game and different ways of reading the question. Which one is right? All of them based on the game circumstances and how the question was read.
The poll gave you an answer. I just don't think it is useful for your parameter.
FrozenNew York, NYJoin Date: 2010-07-02Member: 72228Members, Constellation
At 6 minutes I usually take stock of the res game and you can see when fades will be up versus what tech will be up for marines. I don't think I can be nearly as accurate at 4 minutes.
But none of this counts for the game designs inability to allow a team to end a game, forcing excessively longer end games and creating a randomness to the victor
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Except that the two teams perform differently depending on the stage of the game.
If you were just going to do that I have statistics for that. I can tell historically who wins most an X time of the game.
I have global statistics but in the short run here is the same information from TTO servers.
Then perhaps it'd be possible to use each team's hive scores as inputs to bias the historical stats. From there using the biased stats to determine which team will win & approximately when.
Not only did most people vote not fully understanding the intent of the poll, but no one is voting on the same assumptions.
Some people are voting with with high skill players in mind, some are voting with low skill players in mind. Some are voting with high player counts in mind, others are voting with low player counts in mind. People are also voting with different assumptions of what balanced teams are and how they play. My point is that no one is on the same page.
Balanced gameplay is a myth. It is something to be sought for but never to be found. Imbalances to varying degrees will always be found be it because of players, maps, or even the time of day.
For instance, on average (meaning across all player counts) Marines go from 65%+ winrate @ 5 minutes, to 38% winrate after 20 minutes.
That's the issue I see with seeking out an answer to this question.
It just varies too greatly to be reliable right now, and even slight imbalances (that will exist! As nordic pointed out) will either compound or lessen these inherently advantageous times in a round for each respective team - making prediction incredibly difficult, or at the very least incredibly context sensitive.
This parameter mostly exists to set incentives correctly, the skill system basically works with or without it, so in some sense its ideal to base it on perceptions rather than reality. I don't want people to ever feel that it's in their interest to quit the game in order to keep their hive score high, so if people feel that the game is lost after 4 minutes, that to me is enough reason to set the parameter there, even if in reality those players are wrong about the game being lost.
The poll has not given you a unified perception where most think it is at 4 minutes. It has given you 30+ perceptions that happens to have most people say 4 minutes.
I voted 1 minute without reading properly. I would of voted 4 minutes if I read the OP properly. I was not the only one. You even had to qualify what the OP meant twice.
Given the poll question I could easily argue that the answer should be 1 minute, 4 minutes, 8 minutes, or no time limit with common circumstances within the game and different ways of reading the question. Which one is right? All of them based on the game circumstances and how the question was read.
The poll gave you an answer. I just don't think it is useful for your parameter.
But none of this counts for the game designs inability to allow a team to end a game, forcing excessively longer end games and creating a randomness to the victor