Too Many Players Problem
Frahg
Join Date: 2002-12-03 Member: 10432Members, Constellation
Join Date: 2002-12-03 Member: 10432Members, Constellation
<div class="IPBDescription">Another Marine Advantage Described</div> I've been noticing that the more players this game has, the less likely the aliens are to win. Basically, after the game reaches 20 players (10 on each side) there is slim chance of the aliens ever getting a base setup. This is especially true if the marines are organized (but if they're not, it just means the aliens survive longer) here's why:
If both sides are making 1 res per second (I actually think that's high for this game, but let's just estimate), and each side has 5 players then it takes 22 seconds for the marines to build their first res point and 66 seconds for the aliens to get theirs (assuming one gorge) .
The reason for this requires a bit of simple math: Each alien gets 1 share of resources, so it takes 5 seconds for each alien to make one resource when there are 5 players. Since aliens start with 10 resources, and a gorge takes 13 res, it takes 3 res more to evolve or 3 * 5 seconds--15 seconds to evolve to a gorge. Now, people estimate gorges make money at a rate of 3 to 1 over other alien types. So, they are actually making 3 shares of 7 shares, 3 gorge shares and 4 normal alien shares. Gorges then need to amass 22 more resources to build the first res point. Since they are making 3 dollars every 7 seconds: 3 res / 7 sec * time = 22 res or 3*time = 22*7 or time = 22*7/3 or time = 51.3333. So total time it takes is 66 seconds for 1 gorge to build the second resource point. (this, btw, excludes the evolution time for the gorge where he continues to make the standard alien allotment of res)
Now, there is one other factor that hasn't been accounted for. You only get the 7/3 rate until the other team members are full, then they stop sapping resources. So, after 15 seconds they are at 13, then they need 20 more res to get to 33. So for 7/3*20 (46 seconds) you get 7/3. Then you just get 3/1 so you get your last two res in 1 second. Thus, you actually produce your first res point in 47 seconds, not 51.3333.
Now, take this in terms of a larger game. If there are 10 aliens on one side it takes still 22 seconds for the humans to get their first resource point, but it takes 3 * 10 or 30 seconds to become a gorge and 12/3 * 22 = 88 seconds to get your first res point! That's almost two minutes! That's assuming only one gorge as well. Oops, forgot the above calculation about res, so really you get 20 res worth of 12/3 (or 80 seconds) and then you get your last res in 1 second. So, total, it takes 111 seconds to make your first res point.
Okay, so we've done lots of analysis, but what does it all mean? Let's figure that out. That means money progresses (optimally) like this:
Humans
----------
22 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed (and spent)
33 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed (and spent)
39 seconds -- 4 res points -- 66 res amassed (and spent)
43 seconds -- 5 res points -- 88 res amassed (and spent)
now, it might not be realistic, but it is possible for the humans to build 4 res points in under 45 seconds from game start. What's more likely, however, is that they build up def at one:
22 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
35 seconds -- TF -- 47 res amassed
54 seconds -- 2 Turrets -- 66 res amassed
77 seconds -- 3 res points, TF -- 112 res amassed
83 seconds -- 128 res amassed
96 seconds -- 3 turrets -- 169 res amassed
from here on out they can upgrade do whatever, they want--but they probably wont get much bigger in the resource department. It should be noted that the first 22 seconds needs to be offset with whatever they spend on initial base defenses. This probably wont delay the squad more than 30 seconds however... So, start the numbers at 52 and end at 126...
52 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
65 seconds -- TF -- 47 res amassed
84 seconds -- 2 Turrets -- 66 res amassed
107 seconds -- 3 res points, TF -- 112 res amassed
113 seconds -- 128 res amassed
126 seconds -- 3 turrets -- 169 res amassed
Aliens on the other hand will go like this (assuming 1 gorge, 5 players):
46 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
51 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed
64 seconds -- 2 Turrets 1 def tower -- 86 res amassed
77 seconds -- 1 Turret 2 def towers -- 128 res amassed
103 seconds -- 2nd Hive -- 208 res amassed
Unfortunately, this alien setup is highly unlikely as a) gorges tend to die b) gorges tend to build res points slower then listed above favoring to build a few defenses first around each res point, c) someone is going to go lerk and slow down res production for the builder, d) there will probably be more gorges than would allow for this optimal setup. Still, assuming this can be achieved the aliens have it pretty good in a five on five game. However, in a 10 on 10 game the whole situation changes.
81 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
92 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed
105 seconds -- 2 Turrets 1 def tower -- 86 res amassed
118 seconds -- 1 Turret 2 def towers -- 128 res amassed
145 seconds -- 2nd hive -- 208 res amassed
again, this optimal setup is far less realistic than the human projection above, but it still shows that in a 10 on 10 game whatever balancing advantage the aliens might have had in resources is lost.
Now, for the clincher. The numbers still seem kind of balanced, resource wise everyone makes about the same. Now, step it up a notch to 15 on 15. It now takes 159 seconds for the gorge to build the second resource tower. By that time the human player has made 268 res to your 22. You are dead already, before you even started playing. I'd advice rushing and trying to kill their res point before they make too much progress.
This post is open to criticism, especially as it makes a ton of assumptions (logical, but still assumptions). I'd like to see if you think my time frame on how teams build could use work or if you see a more efficient (realistic) strategy for one of the teams.
As it were, I think this analysis pretty well shows that the number of players directly reduces the chance of aliens winning because it slows them down dramatically in the early game. And that's the time when they need the most help, because right out of the box the humans have the fighting advantage.
--Frahg
If both sides are making 1 res per second (I actually think that's high for this game, but let's just estimate), and each side has 5 players then it takes 22 seconds for the marines to build their first res point and 66 seconds for the aliens to get theirs (assuming one gorge) .
The reason for this requires a bit of simple math: Each alien gets 1 share of resources, so it takes 5 seconds for each alien to make one resource when there are 5 players. Since aliens start with 10 resources, and a gorge takes 13 res, it takes 3 res more to evolve or 3 * 5 seconds--15 seconds to evolve to a gorge. Now, people estimate gorges make money at a rate of 3 to 1 over other alien types. So, they are actually making 3 shares of 7 shares, 3 gorge shares and 4 normal alien shares. Gorges then need to amass 22 more resources to build the first res point. Since they are making 3 dollars every 7 seconds: 3 res / 7 sec * time = 22 res or 3*time = 22*7 or time = 22*7/3 or time = 51.3333. So total time it takes is 66 seconds for 1 gorge to build the second resource point. (this, btw, excludes the evolution time for the gorge where he continues to make the standard alien allotment of res)
Now, there is one other factor that hasn't been accounted for. You only get the 7/3 rate until the other team members are full, then they stop sapping resources. So, after 15 seconds they are at 13, then they need 20 more res to get to 33. So for 7/3*20 (46 seconds) you get 7/3. Then you just get 3/1 so you get your last two res in 1 second. Thus, you actually produce your first res point in 47 seconds, not 51.3333.
Now, take this in terms of a larger game. If there are 10 aliens on one side it takes still 22 seconds for the humans to get their first resource point, but it takes 3 * 10 or 30 seconds to become a gorge and 12/3 * 22 = 88 seconds to get your first res point! That's almost two minutes! That's assuming only one gorge as well. Oops, forgot the above calculation about res, so really you get 20 res worth of 12/3 (or 80 seconds) and then you get your last res in 1 second. So, total, it takes 111 seconds to make your first res point.
Okay, so we've done lots of analysis, but what does it all mean? Let's figure that out. That means money progresses (optimally) like this:
Humans
----------
22 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed (and spent)
33 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed (and spent)
39 seconds -- 4 res points -- 66 res amassed (and spent)
43 seconds -- 5 res points -- 88 res amassed (and spent)
now, it might not be realistic, but it is possible for the humans to build 4 res points in under 45 seconds from game start. What's more likely, however, is that they build up def at one:
22 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
35 seconds -- TF -- 47 res amassed
54 seconds -- 2 Turrets -- 66 res amassed
77 seconds -- 3 res points, TF -- 112 res amassed
83 seconds -- 128 res amassed
96 seconds -- 3 turrets -- 169 res amassed
from here on out they can upgrade do whatever, they want--but they probably wont get much bigger in the resource department. It should be noted that the first 22 seconds needs to be offset with whatever they spend on initial base defenses. This probably wont delay the squad more than 30 seconds however... So, start the numbers at 52 and end at 126...
52 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
65 seconds -- TF -- 47 res amassed
84 seconds -- 2 Turrets -- 66 res amassed
107 seconds -- 3 res points, TF -- 112 res amassed
113 seconds -- 128 res amassed
126 seconds -- 3 turrets -- 169 res amassed
Aliens on the other hand will go like this (assuming 1 gorge, 5 players):
46 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
51 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed
64 seconds -- 2 Turrets 1 def tower -- 86 res amassed
77 seconds -- 1 Turret 2 def towers -- 128 res amassed
103 seconds -- 2nd Hive -- 208 res amassed
Unfortunately, this alien setup is highly unlikely as a) gorges tend to die b) gorges tend to build res points slower then listed above favoring to build a few defenses first around each res point, c) someone is going to go lerk and slow down res production for the builder, d) there will probably be more gorges than would allow for this optimal setup. Still, assuming this can be achieved the aliens have it pretty good in a five on five game. However, in a 10 on 10 game the whole situation changes.
81 seconds -- 2 res points -- 22 res amassed
92 seconds -- 3 res points -- 44 res amassed
105 seconds -- 2 Turrets 1 def tower -- 86 res amassed
118 seconds -- 1 Turret 2 def towers -- 128 res amassed
145 seconds -- 2nd hive -- 208 res amassed
again, this optimal setup is far less realistic than the human projection above, but it still shows that in a 10 on 10 game whatever balancing advantage the aliens might have had in resources is lost.
Now, for the clincher. The numbers still seem kind of balanced, resource wise everyone makes about the same. Now, step it up a notch to 15 on 15. It now takes 159 seconds for the gorge to build the second resource tower. By that time the human player has made 268 res to your 22. You are dead already, before you even started playing. I'd advice rushing and trying to kill their res point before they make too much progress.
This post is open to criticism, especially as it makes a ton of assumptions (logical, but still assumptions). I'd like to see if you think my time frame on how teams build could use work or if you see a more efficient (realistic) strategy for one of the teams.
As it were, I think this analysis pretty well shows that the number of players directly reduces the chance of aliens winning because it slows them down dramatically in the early game. And that's the time when they need the most help, because right out of the box the humans have the fighting advantage.
--Frahg
Comments
--Frahg
On the marine team, these resources go to the commander. On the alien team, they go into a pool. Each gorge gets three shares of these resources while every other alien form gets one share. If an alien is up to his maximum resource points, his share is zero and the shares are calculated without including him. Dead aliens do not get resources until the cycle after they respawn.
As to the subject of the post: you have to remember that this is a very dynamic game; it can't be constrained by simple mathematics. Your calculations fail to take into account skill of the players on each team, and resource expendatures like armories, infantry portals, and other buildings which the aliens do not have to build and have no analog to. The common skulk rush also delays their expanding further and marines can often be contained well by skulks and/or lerks.
The statement, "right out of the box the humans have the fighting advantage," is ONLY true if the marine sees the alien first; skilled aliens will hide as soon as they hear marines and a single skulk can take out several marines if he surprises them.
I think the fact that aliens who die don't collect resources actually just means they slow down production later. They'll eventually steal the money, it's just a matter of when. And while that means the first resource tower comes up a lot faster, I don't think that factor totally undermines the analysis at hand.
I think aliens hiding only works for one or two aliens, beyond that they just can't get positions or then tend to spoil each other. Rushing really never works, unless the marines are total dolts who couldn't hit the long side of a barn. It does give you more resources (cause half your team is dead/not earning) but it doesn't usually hinder the humans much (and if it does they probably lose right away).
--Frahg
Oh, and protecting gorges really helps the alien's team.. I'm not kidding. /rant
NS is far too complicated and has far too many variables to fit into mathematical formulae. Sure, the game is built with formulas and numbers, but it's the way that players use those numbers that decides the outcome of the game. Countless strategies have been devised for both teams and you can't possibly take each one into account. In the end, arguments should come from direct experience coupled, if needed, with game statistics, not from pure mathematics, because it just doesn't work that way.
You really are right. There is no way to account for the affect of the aliens dying and continually giving resources to their teammates. That makes all my numbers invalid, yes.
However, it doesn't change the fact that aliens go slower (or, should I say marines get faster) as the players in the game increase.
--Frahg
my investigation stems from an inkling I had based on true experiences. The larger the game the harder it was for aliens to get buildings up in time to stop the marines from leaving their base and decimating us. I'm trying to bring reason to a scenario I see played out over and over again. 5 on 5.. great game, 10 on 10... crappy game but hey it's short. An organized 10 on 10 seems to run okay, but only if the aliens are good/lucky enough to beat off the marines until they can get fortified.
But that's just luck. I'm asking, whose side does luck favor. The answer, in my opinion, is the Marines.
This post was just using mathematics to point out an advantage of the marines monetarily. I'm not trying to boil down who will win to mathematics, but I do believe that all other things equal marines would dominate a game. Just based on resources. If you want to argue which is the more balanced team, you're missing the point of this post. This post is about an advantage I believe the marines have. They get more money. If you think that there is no advantage to be had, I say my numbers--albeit not exact, and definately prone to overestimating the humans advantage--still show that the larger the game, the more of an advantage the humans have. It's not saying that it's the unbeatable advantage, just that it exists.
I'm also not saying that the humans are better only due to this, but just that they are better in this area.
Now, if you had to ask me who was better, I probably would still say the Marines. A bad commander can destroy the marines, but even a decent commander means they will probably win. It's just that:
They have the advantage of money; they have the advantage of being able to storm a base without ever seeing it (siege), they have the advantage of range and they have the advantage of getting continually better guys without an investment in territory (upgrades of guns and armor can all be done in the base, they don't need external hive locations). They even respawn faster in the early game, what's up with that. Nothing an alien has counters the humans. They *can* regenerate and they never run out of ammo. That's about the only true advantages they have. They're better classes are no better than an hmg/ha guy and they cost about the same. Sure, there's less coordination involved in using those classes, but still--they're not that strong and harder to replace (a lmg guy becomes an hmg guy when the hmg guy dies, after all...)
Anyway, I digress. the point of this post is not who is stronger, but do marines have an advantage monetarily?
--Frahg
--Frahg<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><span class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No! A hundred times no! Marines have to spend money on everything except respawning and ammo from armories, and for everything comparable to the aliens' stuff, the cost is higher:
Turrets cost 19 each plus at least one infantry portal (look at the tech tree) and a turret factory while offense chambers cost 14 and they have no prerequisites. To get full armor upgrades marines have to build an arms lab, which costs 50, then research each armor upgrade (I'm almost never commander so I only know the first armor upgrade cost, which is 20, so let's just say it's 60 resources for full armor), a total of 110 resources and it takes quite a bit of time. The aliens only need to spend 42 resources, 14 for each defense chamber. That's less than half of the marines.
It takes about 124 resources, including a second hive, to get the first fade, it takes the marines a total of 180 minimum resources to get the first HMG (1 infantry portal, 1 armory, 1 armory upgrade, 1 HMG), which comes into the game at roughly the same time as fades.
When you look at the amount of resources the marines spend and the time it takes them to build and upgrade stuff, compared to the aliens' time and resources spent, the marinse HAVE to have a resource "advantage" (faster resources gain) for it to even out. Your numbers prove nothing because they simply cannot. There's no time, cost, speed of the character, element of surprise, or any other circumstance of the game taken into accout besides gross resource numbers, which, honestly, don't count for much because it's not the gross that counts, it's the net.
When there are more players the marines (being a much more effective force) take more resources and are usually able to upgrade much more. When the marines upgrade, they can destroy any amount of offensive chambers and def; and they finally have a way to defend themselves from onos.
Let me just point out a few things about aliens, that i think tend to give them the upperhand:
a) an alien can attack until he feels threatened (especially when you have 200 or 500 health), and then just run off and regen. Marines usually aren't smart enough to chase them down, or are incapable of doing so.
b) the a single alien can take out several marines (or not), die, and not loose anything for the team (actually, im quiet sure that its more of an advantage, seeing as it adds to the pool of alien resources)
c) the aliens don't have to depend on a single player (i.e. the commander).
Also, you cant mathematically show that the marines are better than aliens, unless the numbers are incredibly different (besides, youre math is completely wrong).
However, i must give you props on being able to digress, most **obscenity** who post crap on these forums never know when to give up.
Oh I agree completely. In fact that's in my first post. My claim is that time increases relative to the number of players. And losing ground at the start of the game is a detriment to any strategy.
@de.sevorak
turrets are better for the marines. They get armor upgrades when they're researched, they're smaller (harder to hit), have hitscan weapons (meaning 0 time for bullets to reach the target) and go up faster than kharaa turrets. Yes, they have a weakness, but once their weakness is well nested only a full assault will take them down, and at that point you should probably have some marines in there too (and they can heal them)... regardless, I think you get what you pay for. Another big advantage of marines turrets is every structure they have isn't susceptible to siege attacks from afar. That alone makes any alien structure less valueable because there's a chance it's just going to be erased in a couple seconds with no explanation.
that said, yes ha guys take longer but remember all the infrastructure you're building along the way. Getting all armor upgrades means (which I think costs 20, 40 60) costs you 150 but now you've got THREE armor upgrades for your team. And you never have to spend money on armour again. Aliens, on the other hand have to spend 2 dollars every time they want carapace. But comparing armor to armor really isn't the way to go with this, let's compare GUN upgrades. To get better weapons, the aliens have to secure a new hive. That's tough, that costs 80 resources alone and then they have to upgrade to fade. Meanwhile, all humans need is an arms building and 20 bucks (a total of 70) and they get upgraded guns. With 150 resources, they have full upgraded weapons. 150 to 124 is not that bad, excepting the fact that 124 buys you one good guy while 150 buys all your guys better guns. Now a lmg guy can stand tow to tow with an uncarapaced fade.
And to your first HMG costs analysis: go a few steps past that and you'll see fades are more expensive. First fade costs 124 dollars. fifth costs 300 res. 1st HMG costs 180, fifth costs 280. 10th fade: 520. 10th hmg: 405... their things are more expensive up front, but in the long run and the short run marines get more resources so it really doesn't matter.
@de.CardiacArrest
My math isn't completely wrong, it just lacks certain details. Certain fundamental aspects of it still stand. And you can say that marines are better by having only a slight advantage because it is still an advantage. And since I believe this is not their only advantage, everything adds up. Also, this advantage as not as slight as you say--it changes quite dramatically with each person added.
Anyway, I've gone on too long again. Good conversation people!
--Frahg