Predictions of users on first day

philmcneal · October 2002

on oct 31 about roughly how many will play ns?

a) 200
b) 500
c) 1000
d) 2000 +

if u ask me i say... b

MrPink · October 2002

my guess is around 250, but if MonsE's PR is as good as its been hyped up to be, then id say at least 500

philmcneal · October 2002

agreed...

how long will it take to beat dod :O

Jops · October 2002

There are over 1500 users registered on the forums and god knows how many more who are not, I am shooting for 2000+ prolly 3000 to 4000

Edit: This also makes me very concerned for server availability <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/sad.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':('>

Jedisar · October 2002

8,000-10,000.

Lots of Forum Fans.
Lots of Incognito Fans.
Lots of Web Fans.
Lots of Other Game Fans.
Lots of Web site owning Fans.

MrPink · October 2002

</span><table border="0" align="center" width="95%" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tr><td><b>Quote</b> (Jedisar @ Oct. 26 2002,23:52)</td></tr><tr><td id="QUOTE">8,000-10,000.

Lots of Forum Fans.
Lots of Incognito Fans.
Lots of Web Fans.
Lots of Other Game Fans.
Lots of Web site owning Fans.</td></tr></table><span id='postcolor'>
god i hope your wrong...

SonnyG007 · October 2002

First day out I'm guessing 500 is a good number. Second day it'll jump to around 1000.

Derfud · October 2002

I think it will depend on how the PR blitz blows over, if it gets publicized at lots of places, and ALOT of people get hyped up about it, then i am guessing D, if not i'd say C

Evil_Sonic_Death_Monkey · October 2002

i'd say c... for some reason... just plainly said... c...

(i just luv using "..." )

Res1 · October 2002

it will be a lot more than 500.

philmcneal · October 2002

just post at sogamed and u get like 500 more users

MooMoo_the_SnowCow · October 2002

I'm going to say around 200. I would say more but there is this thing we call Halloween that happens to take place on the same day.

UkiTakuMuki · October 2002

hmmm. i reside in SouthEast Asis, but i have something of a Pr thingy here myself ^^ ill say... 200 ppl here at least on first day.. and thats the Lan cafes surrounding my residence. 300-500 online, from Pan Asia Gaming Network

so happy day! its going to be wodnerful.

NS will pwn!

Catpoker · October 2002

this PR thing will bring a lot more people (look at how many people are just now joining the fourms) and most people that have not even heard about it will look at the (hopefully) great reviews in november and decide to see what all the talk is about

i am guessing first day..... 1000 users

JediYoshi · October 2002

Around... 700, but god, that would still be alot for a MOD's first realese <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/confused.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt='???'>

b00jah · October 2002

1st Day - answer (D), no question about it. I'm sure DoD had a hell of a lot of downloads on the first day it was released. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over [or close to] 10,000 downloads.

Bill · October 2002

around 1400

Just a very rough guesstimate assuming there were 90 open servers with a 16 player limit.

ViPr · October 2002

there better be a server in the middle east or i will be mad <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':angry:'> i have DSL and yet have to put up with pings like 300 except for counterstrike which is 40 and i hate counter-strike. you better make this mod more popular than counter-strike so they will put this mod on that server instead or i will be mad <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/mad.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':angry:'>

Battousaix · October 2002

heh,i think ns will be over 500....
wow.... that´s a lot for a first release <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/tounge.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':p'>

Eos · October 2002

I think about 700 people.

This is how many I think will be on, it's a "gut" feeling.

Jops · October 2002

BAH! If all of the servers are full it is our responsibility as foroum goers to make servers, have people play on them and keep NS going and going and going, if the turnout is good each personal server will be packed!!!

OneManArmy · October 2002

Oh I think this shall have a good release. When there talking about this game over at <a href="http://www.penny-arcade.com" target="_blank">Penny Arcade</a>... oh yea, plenty of people know about it... <img src="http://www.natural-selection.org/iB_html/non-cgi/emoticons/biggrin.gif" border="0" valign="absmiddle" alt=':D'>

Nighpher · October 2002

I think a better qustion is how many servers you think will be on?

Eos · October 2002

If all the personal servers are full than just create a server and then it will be fill in no time.

Brutus · October 2002

I think at any given time on the first day you will see around 1500 people playing.

DOOManiac · October 2002

you guys are all very conservative on your estimates...

if NS is anything like other mods upon release, there will probably be at around 50,000 downloads within the first 24 hours of release.

As far as players and servers go: There will probably be around 75-100 servers, and 700 or so players. Also the ratio will be greatly towards the players, with a massive shortage of servers. This is always true for every mod no matter how many servers you get, there just isnt' enough time to get them up fast enough, ever.

These numbers are pulled out of previous experience (the 3 mod releases I've been with) combined with realistic expectations for how well NS will do.

Note: After about a week or so, the number of players (and servers, but much less so than players) will start dropping off. This will be due to people who don't like the mod will stop playing it. Yes, there will be a lot of people who won't like the mod. Just deal with it, and let them pass.

Sebly · October 2002

I bet there won't be any New Zealand servers...goddamnit

Necro · October 2002

remember this is the 1st release, no first releases get HUGE amount like dod's 2000 irc'ers.

richard_of_richardland · October 2002

Yes they do these days - If they are good mods - I expect NS will probably briefly overtake everything but DoD and probably will encroach on TFC in the first week or so.

Kali · October 2002

These are the threads in a german game-magazine forum.

<a href="http://forum.gamestar.de/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=58910" target="_blank">http://forum.gamestar.de/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=58910</a>
<a href="http://forum.gamestar.de/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=58537" target="_blank">http://forum.gamestar.de/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=58537</a>

Insane · October 2002

I agree with DOOM. I have no doubt that there will be a shortage of servers on release day and a few days after. NS is proving <b>very</b> pouplar and a lot of people anre looking forward to release day, not just the fourumites/IRC bums.

Predictions of users on first day

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