TWG XI: Insurrection Omega

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Comments

  • im_lostim_lost TWG Rule Guru Join Date: 2003-04-26 Member: 15861Posts: 3,925Members
    QUOTE
    HIDDEN:
    the seer goes to his first seered person and tells him that he's the seer and will be working with him. After each new green comes in, this first seered person tells each member who is in the alliance and who was added. Should make for an interesting swing on voting patterns though.

    That happens every game, I would be very surprised if it isn't already on track.

    QUOTE
    Vigi is a fairly good role since I'm told that not only is the role hidden, but it works multiple times? I've only played games where it works once so it's interesting to see it working a lot. Only when we get towards the end of the game and the "even-odd number of players" factor comes into play should we consider not using it. Until then i suggest that along with our normal votes, we suggest a vigi target so the wolves don't get a lucky shot at someone and will know when the wolves got to pick as the vigi.

    Sounds like a good plan, though a night 1 vigilante kill would probably be random and is more likely to help the wolves by speeding up the game and killing a human.
    image
    QUOTE(CMEast @ Jun 4 2005, 10:54 AM)
    ... accusations are so... accusing.
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    QUOTE(im_lost @ Feb 23 2007, 04:11 AM) »

    Sounds like a good plan, though a night 1 vigilante kill would probably be random and is more likely to help the wolves by speeding up the game and killing a human.


    Night 1 is over isn't it?

    It does speed up the game, but I figure if everyone is sending in their lynch votes along with a vigi vote, the humans are pretty much getting two kills for the wolves one. If the humans don't take advantage of the vigi role, then the wolves could potentially get two kills, while we only get one.

    Yes it speeds it up, but it's based on our terms and not the wolves... which has weight IMO.
  • im_lostim_lost TWG Rule Guru Join Date: 2003-04-26 Member: 15861Posts: 3,925Members
    Night 1 is over... yeah, we usually have an even number of players and start the game with a death on night 1.
    image
    QUOTE(CMEast @ Jun 4 2005, 10:54 AM)
    ... accusations are so... accusing.
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    Also, I don't how formal your record keeping is for twg, but I noticed the sigs and it seems that you only win if you survive until the end?

    This is a design flaw since you will have people doing things only to survive, even people killing others because they won too many games...

    People won't be willing to take a blow for the benefit of the whole, only worried about themselves.

    You should still be able to "win" as long as your team wins, on our site we have a survival rate along with a win ratio which let's people be themselves and do what they feel will win the game rather than survive.

    But that's completely my opinion and has nothing to do with twg.

    On a related note, is it better to speed the game up with vigi kills or slow play it? I'm going to hold off on a vote simply because I know nothing about other players and won't be able to make a good judgement.

    Still would like someone to produce a top 5 inactive list though if it's not too much trouble.
  • PetcoPetco Join Date: 2003-07-27 Member: 18478Posts: 1,724Members, Constellation
    QUOTE(iggymatrixcounter @ Feb 22 2007, 10:13 PM) »

    Also, I don't how formal your record keeping is for twg, but I noticed the sigs and it seems that you only win if you survive until the end?


    This is a design flaw since you will have people doing things only to survive, even people killing others because they won too many games...

    People won't be willing to take a blow for the benefit of the whole, only worried about themselves.


    You should still be able to "win" as long as your team wins, on our site we have a survival rate along with a win ratio which let's people be themselves and do what they feel will win the game rather than survive.

    But that's completely my opinion and has nothing to do with twg.


    To your bolded point - That may be true sometimes but I haven't really seen much of that happening but maybe it'll change once we play more and more games. Right now, those statements about killing each other are mainly just jokes and not really serious.

    We have been trying to figure a way to make the rewards work out but for now this will have to do and we haven't been worried too much about it.
    IPB Image
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 22 2007, 11:45 PM) »

    actually if one of the lovers is the seer then they should probably stay secret. Of course if they are both wolves then they should also.
    Also, if they are both human, the wolves can wolf 2 people in one go.



    Why would you even mention this fact? I hear wolves on this site aren't too smart, so giving out seemingly obvious WOLF strategy gets you absolutely no where and only gives guidelines for the wolves.

    You also hold back a random vote because you don't want to hit the seer? Wow that's the wackest strategy I've ever seen. Might as well just not vote and collect phantoms instead?

    thansal

    Also I've been very interested in this vigi role since it's something that I've never seen for the most part.

    I did the math on what would lead to what. It's been said that using the vigi for anything less than necessary speeds the game to a point where wolves would have the advantage, but after running the numbers I can't disagree more.

    If we assume that no wolves will be hit during this senario then not using the vigi kill at all yields something like:

    NOW: 19 players Lynch, Wolf
    DAY2: 17 players L, W
    DAY3: 15 players L, W
    DAY4: 13 players L, W
    DAY4: 11 players L, W
    wolves win

    same assumption but now we use the vigi kill every chance we get:
    NOW: 19 players L, W, V
    DAY2: 16 players L, W, V
    DAY3: 13 players L, W, V
    DAY4: 10 players L
    (if we get the day4 lynch wrong then wolves win.)

    So by not using the vigi every chance we get we lose a day and thus a seer pick (assuming he lives). BUT by using the vigi every night we gain 3 more kills. So by pure random numbers we gain a net of 2 kills.

    That's 2 more chances at hitting a wolf, which is far greater IMO. And I'm pretty sure the wolves will be sending in them picks, so they can cut us down that way also if we just sit around on a power that we don't out into use ASAP. At least with all the humans using it with the wolves, there's a chance at a vigi kill on a wolf.

    Hopefully this post is long enough to get the point across: USE YOUR VIGI PM EVERY NIGHT ON SOMEONE!!!!!!

    I don't have any rep on this site so you're probably thinking, "who does this noob think he is?" But look at the numbers and redo it if you have to, it's definitely for our benefit.



  • ComproxComprox *chortle* Canada Join Date: 2002-01-23 Member: 7Posts: 6,393Members, Super Administrators, Forum Admins, NS1 Playtester, NS2 Developer, Constellation, NS2 Playtester, Reinforced - Shadow, WC 2013 - Silver, Subnautica Developer, Subnautica Playtester admin
    The problem with math in this game is there are too many extra factors. What about the lovers, that can throw the math off. What about seer protection (rare I know)? What if they wolves and vigilante go for the same person? Relying on numbers sadly isn't the best.
    NAPT
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    I took all of that into consideration but decided they don't hold enough weight to totally throw out the benefits.

    See if the lovers are hit, then you have the chance of killing a wolf but the intention was hitting a human. Or killing two wolves, or some other minor thing that can't objectively be quantified as well as what I'm purposing. Yea it's most likely that two humans would die, but as far as making up for it, all you would do is not use the kill the next day. (unless of course it happens the night before the end of game lynch) But as far it totally screwing us it's a small chance and therefore didn't take it into consideration.

    The seer (unless public) always has a chance of being lynched as well as wolfed so vigi killing is just another kill he has to avoid and therefore since it's the same risk as another other kill vehicle, I ignored that possibility.

    So yes, I did just do the math and while theoretically it's not 100%. PRACTICALLY having 2 more kill shots in a game is better than not having those chances right?

  • ChakuuChakuu Join Date: 2007-01-07 Member: 59504Posts: 15Members
    ZOMG! I'm a Lieutenant! All Privates must bow down to me! *lol

    Anyways, no one's dead yet and there's nothing to go on for now...

    I'm leaving for a ski trip this morning, and won't return until Sunday evening, so please excuse me for being inactive until then. Hopefully, it'll still be Day 2 by then, and I won't incur a 0.001 vote on myself (whatever it's called :-P)

    Usually I always vote for the inactive players, but since I'm won't be back until atleast Day 2, I thought I'd make my vote a bit more meaningful (if that's even possible.) So I decided on random.org-ing the 3 players who already have 2 votes each. Thus, my result was... Private Aldaris.
    IPB Image
  • ThansalThansal The New Scum Join Date: 2002-08-22 Member: 1215Posts: 10,571Members, Constellation
    Disclaimer: There are rounding errors in ALL of my calculations, as I am lazy and round to the nearet whole number in all steps.

    iggy, just as a warning, the wolves are NOT stupid, don't count on that. If you want a decent proof, go check out the last game thread and the post game thread, the wolves came VERY close, im_lost just did an even better job.

    I pointed out all the reasons why lovers should not come forth simply so that they were all on the table. Why I did this? I personally find withholding information much more of a suspicious (wolf like) thing then putting it out, so I always will talk about all points of a problem (that includes defending people's apparently dumb statements). I know going counter bandwagon will likely get me lynched until people are used to seeing me always argue like this (just as we are all used to seeing im_lost cast the first stone every day tounge.gif).

    as for the Vigi, I am actually against him making a vote unless he has a decent idea. Why? Simple probability states he is not going to hit a red. Night 2 (first time he is active) he has a 28% or 22% chance of hitting a Red (higher if we lynch a human, lower if we lynch a red). Night 3 (assuming he didn't act night 2) he has a 31% (3 civ deaths), 25% (2 civ deaths), 19% (1 civ death) of hitting a Red. He of course has a slightly better chance of hitting a red night 3 if there are fewer people alive.

    Unless he has a good idea, a random vote is a BAD idea (Vig, if you have a good idea, kill the wolf!). I am of course disregarding a chance that one of the lovers got lynched/wolfed.

    Quick side note, the lovers a likely both human.
    Probability of 2 humans: 53%
    Probability of 1 human 1 wolf: %42 (probability of Wolf->Civ + Civ->Wolf)
    Probability of 2 Wolves: %5

    So the probability of ANYONE taking out 2 civs by hitting the lovers is not very good.

    mkay
    [/math]

    NINJA EDIT NEW POST:
    Iggy, either you are a wolf or are not running the math. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt on this one and just saying you are not running the math.

    Oh, and if we hit a lover, we have a 47% chance of getting a Wolf (always a good thing), however the wolves have a %100 chance of getting 2 humans (they will not wolf one of their own, unless they are using a VERY devious ploy that we haven't seen any one here try to pull, though they always could)
    <Eternaly_Lost> Me and lolfighter are lovers
  • Zor2Zor2 Join Date: 2005-01-13 Member: 35341Posts: 213Members, Constellation
    im lost

    Too much talk about past games and whatnot!
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 23 2007, 01:04 PM) »


    iggy, just as a warning, the wolves are NOT stupid, don't count on that. If you want a decent proof, go check out the last game thread and the post game thread, the wolves came VERY close, im_lost just did an even better job.


    I didn't mean to say you have dumb wolves, but as I hear it, you haven't had a single wolf win as of yet? Where I play the wolf-human win ratio is almost even (with the wolves winning 9 times in a row at one point) So yea, I'm used to a different set of wolf rules.

    QUOTE

    as for the Vigi, I am actually against him making a vote unless he has a decent idea. Why? Simple probability states he is not going to hit a red. Night 2 (first time he is active) he has a 28% or 22% chance of hitting a Red (higher if we lynch a human, lower if we lynch a red). Night 3 (assuming he didn't act night 2) he has a 31% (3 civ deaths), 25% (2 civ deaths), 19% (1 civ death) of hitting a Red. He of course has a slightly better chance of hitting a red night 3 if there are fewer people alive.


    So we shouldn't lynch someone today since we only have a 26% chance of getting a wolf? Just because the odds aren't high, doesn't mean it isn't the best way. That logic makes me laugh. I will run some more numbers on this after class though since I'm running late.
  • im_lostim_lost TWG Rule Guru Join Date: 2003-04-26 Member: 15861Posts: 3,925Members
    The lovers can't be 2 wolves. EMP said he would repick roles if it came up that way. I don't know how that fits into things for all of this planning, but keep it in mind.
    image
    QUOTE(CMEast @ Jun 4 2005, 10:54 AM)
    ... accusations are so... accusing.
  • ThansalThansal The New Scum Join Date: 2002-08-22 Member: 1215Posts: 10,571Members, Constellation
    QUOTE(iggymatrixcounter @ Feb 23 2007, 09:56 AM) »

    So we shouldn't lynch someone today since we only have a 26% chance of getting a wolf? Just because the odds aren't high, doesn't mean it isn't the best way. That logic makes me laugh. I will run some more numbers on this after class though since I'm running late.

    umm, yah. That is the EXACT problem with the first day. We have very little to go on, and thus we will more then likely hit a human, and that is never good for us. However, we have to lynch some one every day, so it is irrelivent. Chance is against humans in this game, and that is why it is best for the Vig to hold back untill he can scew the odds in favor of getting a wolf kill. You already showed that if the vig acts every night (And he and the wolves pick different targets) that lowers our number of rounds by 1, and that is exactly what the wolves need.

    QUOTE(im_lost @ Feb 23 2007, 10:01 AM) »

    The lovers can't be 2 wolves. EMP said he would repick roles if it came up that way. I don't know how that fits into things for all of this planning, but keep it in mind.


    Ah! didn't know that. in that case:
    Prob 2 humans is still: 53%
    Prob Human/Wolf is now: %47

    In Human/Wolf it is worth the sacrifice of killing the human (1 wolf = nearly 3 humans), unless that human has a roll. However probability still states that it is most likely Human/Human.

    Note: I am disregaurding lovers for the most part. We have no good way of tellign what they are. Ofcourse the lovers are a tool the Seer can use (if he finds one lover, and then seers the other he can actively defend/attack properly, but for most of us it is irrelevant).
    <Eternaly_Lost> Me and lolfighter are lovers
  • EMP_DemonEMP_Demon Nothing to see here. Join Date: 2005-01-28 Member: 38754Posts: 340Members, Constellation
    Current tally:
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
    Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
    Freak83 (2) - Xentor, Thansal
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter

    Still have to vote:

    TheMuffinMan
    doomchica
    Harrower
    wonedslackystyle
    Ana
    image
    QUOTE(Qomwak @ Jan 20 2007, 01:07 PM) »
    so i fi stand next to 2 dcs i get healed by all three of them?

    I prefer "EMP Demon" or "EMPDemon", but I go by "Duet" almost everywhere else so go right ahead and call me that if you want.
  • ByekaByeka Name changed from Freak83 Toronto Join Date: 2003-03-13 Member: 14484Posts: 1,390Members, Constellation
    QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 23 2007, 08:04 AM) »

    as for the Vigi, I am actually against him making a vote unless he has a decent idea. Why? Simple probability states he is not going to hit a red. Night 2 (first time he is active) he has a 28% or 22% chance of hitting a Red (higher if we lynch a human, lower if we lynch a red). Night 3 (assuming he didn't act night 2) he has a 31% (3 civ deaths), 25% (2 civ deaths), 19% (1 civ death) of hitting a Red. He of course has a slightly better chance of hitting a red night 3 if there are fewer people alive.


    QUOTE(iggymatrixcounter @ Feb 23 2007, 09:56 AM) »

    So we shouldn't lynch someone today since we only have a 26% chance of getting a wolf? Just because the odds aren't high, doesn't mean it isn't the best way. That logic makes me laugh. I will run some more numbers on this after class though since I'm running late.


    This probably isn't the greatest analogy in the world but I think as long as you have even had a hunch about a wolf then it is best to go on it. Think about during school when you're writing a multiple choice exam. I think we all know that during these exams usually your first hunch is the right answer? Usually on those tests there are 5 choices:

    A
    B
    C
    D
    E

    1/5 = 20%
    ie. You have a 20% of being correct from this, but statistically speaking when you do go on your first hunch you're actually probably closer to 70-80% of the time.

    Now, by your numbers 5/19 = 26% of hitting a wolf with a guess, as long as you do have a hunch you're already batting at a higher percentage then you do when writing these tests. Rather than having a 20% chance of getting it right you have a 25%. If the 20% usually is right 70-80% of the time, then aren't you going to be closer to being right with your hunch for the wolves 75-85% of the time?

    Probably not the greatest analogy but it shows what I'm trying to say.
  • TheMuffinManTheMuffinMan Join Date: 2002-12-20 Member: 11234Posts: 665Members, Constellation
    I'd have to disagree with you there Freak.

    My first point would be that at this stage in the game i really doubt that anyone (maybe one or two do) have a good idea. At the moment i know i certainly don't smile-fix.gif You might feel that someone is acting oddly, which may indicate that he's not a plain human. However, he could just as easily be a role or a lover as a wolf. Or he could just be acting oddly. Hell, take a look at yoursel. Just by putting |HUMAN at the end of your name you've sparked a bit of suspicion, even though it's clearly just a joke.

    My second point is that it's impossible to quantify a hunch. If you're going to talk percentages then keep to hard facts - 24% chance of lynching a wolf or whatever.

    In terms of the vigilante, i really don't know. I like the idea of giving the humans as many days as possible. Having said that, a human vigilante would be a major help to our cause. No one is going to find out if they're the vigilante if no one votes. Perhaps we could make one kill tonight to find out who the vigilante is (obviously only he would know), then the next day we could discuss in public who we're going to kill (if anyone) the next night.

    That way the vigilante stays anonymous, we're all in a position to discuss who should be killed at night (if anyone) and we prolong the game as long as possible.


    Ninja edit: I mean't to put "have a good idea who the wolves are" on the 2nd line, sorry.
    Help stop hunger, please visit www.thehungersite.com. Thanks :)
  • ThansalThansal The New Scum Join Date: 2002-08-22 Member: 1215Posts: 10,571Members, Constellation
    I agree with viging some one if you have a good idea, but a random vig based off of nothing other then the chan and this thread is silly (that is the state I am in, and thus no vigi vote from me).

    However, as iggymatrixcounter is being more suspicious then Freak is (though he coulda just taken a nose dive to drop off of radar).

    and just to update:
    Current tally:
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    lolfighter (2) - Isamil, Aldaris
    Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
    Freak83 (1) - Xentor
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter
    iggymatrixcounter (1) - Thansal
    Still have to vote:

    TheMuffinMan
    doomchica
    Harrower
    wonedslackystyle
    Ana
    <Eternaly_Lost> Me and lolfighter are lovers
  • TheMuffinManTheMuffinMan Join Date: 2002-12-20 Member: 11234Posts: 665Members, Constellation
    I said that i wouldn't vote random, and i want to stress that this isn't a random vote. This is calculated and i've put a lot of thought into this post before clicking 'add reply'

    I've been told by a 3rd party (who i trust enough to make this post), that lolfighter is not to be trusted at all. I really doubt that this is a wolf plot - it's just too big for that. So if lolly goes we've brought down those numbers, and hopefully got an extra day for us humans smile-fix.gif
    Help stop hunger, please visit www.thehungersite.com. Thanks :)
  • doomchicadoomchica Join Date: 2007-01-07 Member: 59483Posts: 31Members
    QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 23 2007, 07:43 AM) »
    QUOTE(im_lost @ Feb 23 2007, 07:01 AM) »

    The lovers can't be 2 wolves. EMP said he would repick roles if it came up that way. I don't know how that fits into things for all of this planning, but keep it in mind.

    Ah! didn't know that. in that case:
    Prob 2 humans is still: 53%
    Prob Human/Wolf is now: %47

    Your math is broken. You are assuming that only the second role would be re-picked. From the way it is written I think it is both roles that get re-picked.
    So, w/o actually doing the math... it would be something closer to:
    2 humans: 56%
    1 wolf / 1 human: 44%

    I was going to vote for Freak83 for confusing me in the early morning with his "infallible" logic.

    Until... I got to the post w/ iggymatrixcounter's math Right-o. I"l be rereading that later.

    Yes. 11am is early morning. Especially since I was up until 3am.
  • EMP_DemonEMP_Demon Nothing to see here. Join Date: 2005-01-28 Member: 38754Posts: 340Members, Constellation
    Current tally:
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    lolfighter (3) - Isamil, Aldaris, TheMuffinMan
    Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    iggymatrixcounter (1) - Thansal, doomchica
    Freak83 (1) - Xentor
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter
    Still have to vote:

    Harrower
    wonedslackystyle
    Ana
    image
    QUOTE(Qomwak @ Jan 20 2007, 01:07 PM) »
    so i fi stand next to 2 dcs i get healed by all three of them?

    I prefer "EMP Demon" or "EMPDemon", but I go by "Duet" almost everywhere else so go right ahead and call me that if you want.
  • AnaAna Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60027Posts: 43Members
    [13:17] Aldaris: are my eyes screwing up, or are Ana's words in dark blue?
    [13:17] Aldaris: or purple
    [13:17] [Ana]: They blue
    [13:17] [Ana]: I don't know how to make them black on IRC and blue on AIM
    [13:17] Thansal: :P
    [13:17] [Ana]: Plus I'm lazy =P
    [13:17] Comprox: yes, he words are blue
    [13:17] [Ana]: Herrrr
    [13:17] Thansal: btw, ana = Female?
    [13:17] Comprox: and its ugly as heck :P


    I take offence in that. =P I vote for Comprox.
    image

    [14:15] Eternaly_Lost: Is it to early to cast my vote for who I think might be a wolf?
    [14:15] * Thansal wolfs Eternaly_Lost
    [14:15] Thansal: BUAHAHAHAHA!
    [14:15] Thansal: I killed him!
    [14:16] Eternaly_Lost: That was perfect timing

    [20:28] im_lost: it was disappointing to only see 1 death during night 2, instead of the 11 that could have potentially occurred
  • ThansalThansal The New Scum Join Date: 2002-08-22 Member: 1215Posts: 10,571Members, Constellation
    Doom: I tihnk you are wrong there.

    If he picked 2 wolves, and resets the probability of picking 2 humans is still 53%

    I tihnk it actualy goes like this:
    Chance of 2 humans: 53%
    Chance of human/wolf: 42%
    Chance of a redraw: 5%

    I don't think that you end up with a higher % chance of 2 humans...

    We either way, it is goign to be a higher % chance of 2 humans then anything else.

    Oh, and EMP, you missed settign iggy to 2

    Current tally:
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    lolfighter (3) - Isamil, Aldaris, TheMuffinMan
    Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    iggymatrixcounter (2) - Thansal, doomchica
    Freak83 (1) - Xentor
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter
    Still have to vote:

    Harrower
    wonedslackystyle
    Ana

    Nija Edit:

    Comprox is an AO
    <Eternaly_Lost> Me and lolfighter are lovers
  • AnaAna Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60027Posts: 43Members
    Wow, what a mistake. I'm so stupid sometimes. T_T

    Anyway, I pick FreakEightyThree because of his urge to seem human early on in the game. No offence, it just seemed fishy. o.o
    image

    [14:15] Eternaly_Lost: Is it to early to cast my vote for who I think might be a wolf?
    [14:15] * Thansal wolfs Eternaly_Lost
    [14:15] Thansal: BUAHAHAHAHA!
    [14:15] Thansal: I killed him!
    [14:16] Eternaly_Lost: That was perfect timing

    [20:28] im_lost: it was disappointing to only see 1 death during night 2, instead of the 11 that could have potentially occurred
  • ThansalThansal The New Scum Join Date: 2002-08-22 Member: 1215Posts: 10,571Members, Constellation
    Well, I am going to toss this in also.

    I have also been contacted by some one stating that lolfighter is a wolf.

    I ofcourse have no proof, however I am decently sure. Also, it is better then nothign to go on. (as I don't really think iggy is a wolf, he just has bad strategies.)

    So yah:

    Current tally:
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    lolfighter (4) - Isamil, Aldaris, TheMuffinMan, Thansal
    Eternaly_Lost (2) - microcosm, Freak83
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    iggymatrixcounter (1) - doomchica
    Freak83 (1) - Xentor
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter

    Still have to vote:

    Harrower
    wonedslackystyle
    <Eternaly_Lost> Me and lolfighter are lovers
  • wonedslackystylewonedslackystyle Join Date: 2005-02-23 Member: 42283Posts: 50Members
    Hi Hi, sorry it took me so long to get into the game, forgot about it (hey Ima wow addict can you blame me).

    There is really no evidence against freak at all. The last vote I saw for him was because he was trying to defend himself. Sorry but, human nature is that you try to defend yourself and stay alive. Especially on first day, not like his death will be a great sacrifice for us humans, therefore why not defend yourself and stay alive.
    I really don't like it when people bring up stupid logic, that really makes no sense at all. Usually this stupid logic brings a whole bandwagon of noobs and a perfectly normal human is voted off day 1. I'm not saying that Freak83 isn't a wolf, but I just don't think we can vote him off for the logic we have.
    I know freak83 in rl, and he really likes corny jokes. The thing about him putting human beside his name is something he would really find funny. Plus, I remember that the time he changed his name, a bunch of people were changing their names in MIRC also. People were changing it to wolf and what not, so Freak83 being the noob he is, jumped on the bandwagon and changed his.

    There isnt much time left, so I'm going to throw my vote out there. It may be changed but at this point I doubt it.
    Eternaly_Lost , you just seem to be pulling at straws, trying to get someone quickly voted off for pointless reasons. I will be very active today, this vote may change.
  • EMP_DemonEMP_Demon Nothing to see here. Join Date: 2005-01-28 Member: 38754Posts: 340Members, Constellation
    Current tally:
    lolfighter (4) - Isamil, Aldaris, TheMuffinMan, Thansal
    Aldaris (3) - Eternaly_Lost, Gwahir, Chakuu
    Eternaly_Lost (3) - microcosm, Freak83, wonedslackystyle
    im_lost (2) - Mouse, Zor2
    iggymatrixcounter (1) - doomchica
    Freak83 (2) - Xentor, Ana
    Mouse (1) - im_lost
    Isamil (1) - lolfighter
    Thansal (1) - iggymatrixcounter

    Still have to vote:
    Harrower
    image
    QUOTE(Qomwak @ Jan 20 2007, 01:07 PM) »
    so i fi stand next to 2 dcs i get healed by all three of them?

    I prefer "EMP Demon" or "EMPDemon", but I go by "Duet" almost everywhere else so go right ahead and call me that if you want.
  • TheMuffinManTheMuffinMan Join Date: 2002-12-20 Member: 11234Posts: 665Members, Constellation
    I just thought i'd take the chance to explain my earlier decision in terms of it's effect on the game. I've gone over it on IRC, but i thought i'd go over it again on here for anyone wondering why i'm so confident in my vote.

    I've been contacted by someone i've got no reason to trust, but at the same time i've got no reason to distrust him. He's given me a name - whether or not lolfighter is a wolf i can not confirm, but it's something to go on. I'm not going to get into the stats, if you're interested in the exact probability of voting out a wolf on a random vote, take a look at the posts above me. The way i see it, this is a win win situation for us.

    If worst comes to worst, we've been played by a wolf and we've voted out a human. That is, looking at the stats, likely what we would have done anyway. However, if lolfighter turns out to be human then we've got the name of a pretty much confirmed wolf - afterall, why would a human set another human up?
    If the information is correct, then we've got a wolf in the bag already. On day one that's an immense achievement.

    Under normal conditions, i'd be a little more cautious, but the maths posted above is very telling - we've got until the end of Day 4 or 5 to win this game, unless we start thinning the number of wolves out. Because of this we need to be looking to take out the wolves as quickly as possible, and i'm more than willing to take a small risk in order to achieve this.

    I sympathise with you to be honest lolly, if you're not a wolf then this is a harsh decision on you. However, with 5 wolves, the vigilante and the likelihood of two humans being lovers, i really can't see any other option. I'm sorry.
    Help stop hunger, please visit www.thehungersite.com. Thanks :)
  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    QUOTE(Thansal @ Feb 23 2007, 03:43 PM) »

    umm, yah. That is the EXACT problem with the first day. We have very little to go on, and thus we will more then likely hit a human, and that is never good for us. However, we have to lynch some one every day, so it is irrelivent. Chance is against humans in this game, and that is why it is best for the Vig to hold back untill he can scew the odds in favor of getting a wolf kill. You already showed that if the vig acts every night (And he and the wolves pick different targets) that lowers our number of rounds by 1, and that is exactly what the wolves need.


    Woah, so you're in favor of not taking any risk? I aready said that yes you lose ONE day and therefore a seer report (but also you lose a wolfing if you want to look at it that way).

    But you GAIN two extra human picked kills.... why is that good you say? Let's break down my illustration even farther since you seem to think the math is wrong.


    Watch the brilliance of twg number theory:
    (percentages reflect the chance of hitting a wolf and all 5 wolves are alive)

    Not using the vigi every night:
    NOW:19 L W 26%
    DAY2:17 L W 29%
    DAY3:15 L W 33%
    DAY4:13 L W 38%
    DAY5:11 L W 45%
    9 end of game

    The total chance of hitting a wolf in this whole senario by day5 is 88% [1 - (%day 1,2,3,4,5^-1)]

    Using it every night:
    NOW:19 L W V 26%, 28% (L and V percentages respectively)
    DAY2:16 L W V 31%, 33%
    DAY3:13 L W V 38%, 42%
    DAY4:10 L 50%

    So the total chance of hitting a wolf in this senario even with losing a day is 96%

    You increase your chances of hitting your first wolf by almost 10% by just picking people out of a hat basically. Then you add in the fact that the seer alliance won't send in kills against their own and reasoning and gut feelings and you drive both numbers up.

    Also:
    QUOTE

    Iggy, either you are a wolf or are not running the math. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt on this one and just saying you are not running the math.


    The math as far as I can conclude is fine. No one has even checked it or said something like, "Yea this number is a bit off and needs this correction. So when you say that my math is off but give no reason I only conclude that you know only didn't even try to figure it but that the whole idea has left your head as soon as you read it.

    Only wolves try to make things into either/or senarios. You later said that you don't think I'm a wolf but try to discredit everything I say with a statement like, bad math or wolf. You would think that if you actually believed that you would check the math yourself and if it did turn out to be bad you would conclude with 100% accuracy that I'm a wolf. But seeing as how you changed onto another person's logic, which is a lot easier to not be as committed, I guess you really just don't know what you think as of now.

  • iggymatrixcounteriggymatrixcounter Join Date: 2007-02-19 Member: 60025Posts: 31Members
    Instead of making it easy for the wolves to justify a vote, why don't we all just send in a vigi kill for lol. That way the wolves have to think about thier vote rather than bandwagoning on this apparent wolf that was found? It doesn't affect the total outcome except we have a bigger variety of votes to use for the later game as a guide.
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