<!--QuoteBegin-Swiftspear+Apr 13 2005, 12:51 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Swiftspear @ Apr 13 2005, 12:51 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Snidely may have made me suspicous, but he didn't fake a seer contact on me. <b>Talesin</b> is a wolf. I really doubt that snidely is now since there would be no reason for the wolfs to make two shots at the same person in the same turn, but I am still not compleatly dismissing the possibility.
Talesin however has given you an either or proposition. Either me and nem are wolfs and we all lose the game if you don't kill us. Or he is a wolf and we all lose the game if you kill me and nem.
This is the perfect time for the wolfs to powerplay, and if the seer is still alive I urge you to counter this RIGHT NOW, because we have no other chance in hell here.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> We chatted about this to quite an extend in irc before i crashed (ntl's grid went down, took ages to come back up), and i have an opinion on this as well.
Throughout this entire game, the wolves have eliminated experienced players (barring saltzbad, but i won't go into that now). Before last night, there were two very experienced players left - im_lost and swiftspear. Im_lost was wolfed, and the wolves' plan is now coming into action. With only one experienced player left, Talesin comes out and announces that not only Nemesis Zero is a wolf, but our most experienced player - Swiftspear.
This is exactly the situation when an experienced player is needed, as his first hand experience will help us identify whether Talesin is telling the truth. Now that he has been accused, who will trust him? The wolves have killed off the players with the best experience, and have effectively killed swiftspear. Now, according to their plan we will either lynch nemesis zero or swiftspear - it does not matter who. Another human player will go that night, and on the next night we will lynch whichever one was not lynched the day before. Now, another human will be wolfed and we will lose.
Consider that, of all the times that the seer can decide to come forward, he does it at this point - the pivital point in the game. Consider that in four days the seer found two wolves (possibly 3) and 1 human (possibly 2). I know that it is possible, but it is pretty damn rare. Consider that out of the two wolves, one of our sharpest players (Nem) is among them, along with our most experienced player (swiftspear). Coincidence? If we vote off either of them, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot, and the following night we will be severing our own head.
But what, i hear you ask, if Talesin is telling the truth? What if Nem and Spear are actually wolves? In that case, we have a choice to make, and a way to find if Talesin is really telling the truth:
We vote Talesin off this round. Now, the seer will have another chance to seer somebody, and hopefully find a human (if not, he alreadys knows who two of the wolves are, so he can make a decent guess). He tells that human, and he tells us. Are the wolves going to risk putting another player in the spotligh? Hell no. Chances are that they have already lost one, so losing Talesin will push them into <i>very</i> dangerous ground. Therefore, we believe the new player and use his information to vote off the wolves one by one, winning the game. If no one comes out, then we play as we normally do and wait for a break. At this rate, we should be able to vote off the wolves in time.
If we do not make this choice, and choose to believe Talesin (who has absolutely no proof, even for twg standards) then we are buggered if he is a wolf. If he is not, great, but are you all willing to take an all or nothing risk? If we choose to vote off Talesin, and he was a wolf, then great, game nearly won. If he was not another wolf, then the seer can choose to come out under another person and we still have a high chance of winning.
So, what is it folks? A guaranteed win/guaranteed loss, or a good chance of winning and a low chance of loosing? I prefer the sound of the latter option. <b>Talesin</b>.
<!--QuoteBegin-TheMuffinMan+Apr 13 2005, 03:19 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (TheMuffinMan @ Apr 13 2005, 03:19 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin-Swiftspear+Apr 13 2005, 12:51 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Swiftspear @ Apr 13 2005, 12:51 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Snidely may have made me suspicous, but he didn't fake a seer contact on me. <b>Talesin</b> is a wolf. I really doubt that snidely is now since there would be no reason for the wolfs to make two shots at the same person in the same turn, but I am still not compleatly dismissing the possibility.
Talesin however has given you an either or proposition. Either me and nem are wolfs and we all lose the game if you don't kill us. Or he is a wolf and we all lose the game if you kill me and nem.
This is the perfect time for the wolfs to powerplay, and if the seer is still alive I urge you to counter this RIGHT NOW, because we have no other chance in hell here.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> We chatted about this to quite an extend in irc before i crashed (ntl's grid went down, took ages to come back up), and i have an opinion on this as well.
Throughout this entire game, the wolves have eliminated experienced players (barring saltzbad, but i won't go into that now). Before last night, there were two very experienced players left - im_lost and swiftspear. Im_lost was wolfed, and the wolves' plan is now coming into action. With only one experienced player left, Talesin comes out and announces that not only Nemesis Zero is a wolf, but our most experienced player - Swiftspear. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Ugh. We talked about this on IRC. The wolves are obviously not stupid, and letting Swiftspear build up a human network would pose far too great a threat to them.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->This is exactly the situation when an experienced player is needed, as his first hand experience will help us identify whether Talesin is telling the truth. Now that he has been accused, who will trust him? The wolves have killed off the players with the best experience, and have effectively killed swiftspear. Now, according to their plan we will either lynch nemesis zero or swiftspear - it does not matter who. Another human player will go that night, and on the next night we will lynch whichever one was not lynched the day before. Now, another human will be wolfed and we will lose.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> Erm, it <i>would</i> matter now if you're correct. At the moment, Nemesis Zero has the most votes, not Swiftspear. It looks like Swiftspear will live on to the next round (although it is early to tell).
As for "who will trust him" - well, it looks like you do, for a start.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Consider that, of all the times that the seer can decide to come forward, he does it at this point - the pivital point in the game. Consider that in four days the seer found two wolves (possibly 3) and 1 human (possibly 2). I know that it is possible, but it is pretty damn rare. Consider that out of the two wolves, one of our sharpest players (Nem) is among them, along with our most experienced player (swiftspear). Coincidence? If we vote off either of them, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot, and the following night we will be severing our own head.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The time that the seer (if Talesin <i>is</i> the seer) comes forward is the pivotal point in the game.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->But what, i hear you ask, if Talesin is telling the truth? What if Nem and Spear are actually wolves? In that case, we have a choice to make, and a way to find if Talesin is really telling the truth:
We vote Talesin off this round. Now, the seer will have another chance to seer somebody, and hopefully find a human (if not, he alreadys knows who two of the wolves are, so he can make a decent guess). He tells that human, and he tells us. Are the wolves going to risk putting another player in the spotligh? Hell no. Chances are that they have already lost one, so losing Talesin will push them into <i>very</i> dangerous ground. Therefore, we believe the new player and use his information to vote off the wolves one by one, winning the game. If no one comes out, then we play as we normally do and wait for a break. At this rate, we should be able to vote off the wolves in time.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Better to vote for Swift this round, and Talesin the next. Swift has nothing to offer except advice, which he can impart now if he so chooses.
On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->If we do not make this choice, and choose to believe Talesin (who has absolutely no proof, even for twg standards) then we are buggered if he is a wolf. If he is not, great, but are you all willing to take an all or nothing risk? If we choose to vote off Talesin, and he was a wolf, then great, game nearly won. If he was not another wolf, then the seer can choose to come out under another person and we still have a high chance of winning.
So, what is it folks? A guaranteed win/guaranteed loss, or a good chance of winning and a low chance of loosing? I prefer the sound of the latter option. <b>Talesin</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Ugh. We talked about this on IRC. The wolves are obviously not stupid, and letting Swiftspear build up a human network would pose far too great a threat to them.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I agree, to an extent. I would have chosen another experienced player to leave in the game, but this is the way that the cards have been dealt. Swift has stated several times that he has not put anywhere near as much time into this game as he did into twg2, and i believe him.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Erm, it would matter now if you're correct. At the moment, Nemesis Zero has the most votes, not Swiftspear. It looks like Swiftspear will live on to the next round (although it is early to tell).
As for "who will trust him" - well, it looks like you do, for a start.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
How hard would it be for a "physic" to contact someone and tell them that nem was actually a wolf? And like i said, i trust him (more than Talesin, at least), but most others won't. Even if swift lives onto the next round, chances are that we will lynch him anyway.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->The time that the seer (if Talesin is the seer) comes forward is the pivotal point in the game.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, this is the pivotal point in the game. If the seer waits any longer, then the wolves are likely to have enough numbers to overrun us. If he waited less, then we might not be as desperate to believe him. If the seer did not show himself at all, then this day would still be very, very important. We cannot afford to lose another two human players at this stage, let alone 4.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Better to vote for Swift this round, and Talesin the next. Swift has nothing to offer except advice, which he can impart now if he so chooses.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
By then it may be too late. If swift is human and Talesin is a wolf, then chances are that he has already done enough damage and they will be able to overrun us. I do hope that he shares some of his knowledge, however, as this is my first game and this is getting way out of my depth <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If nem/swift <i>are</i> wolves, then we are buggered if we vote off Talesin. If only one of them is a wolf, then we still have pretty good chances. If none of them are wolves (which i think), then voting them off will guarantee our loss, while voting for Talesin will either put the humans or the wolves in a sticky situation, but a salvagable one.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I have absolutely no guarantee that the real seer will come out if we vote off Talesin, but it is the best chance that we have. Swift has experience, which will help us alot, if we listen to him. Hell, i might decry the real seer as well, but i doubt that the wolves would place another player on the line and in the spotlight, so i could probably trust him.
<!--QuoteBegin-TheMuffinMan+Apr 13 2005, 04:05 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (TheMuffinMan @ Apr 13 2005, 04:05 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> I agree, to an extent. I would have chosen another experienced player to leave in the game, but this is the way that the cards have been dealt. Swift has stated several times that he has not put anywhere near as much time into this game as he did into twg2, and i believe him. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> The wolves could not have known that, however.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->How hard would it be for a "physic" to contact someone and tell them that nem was actually a wolf? And like i said, i trust him (more than Talesin, at least), but most others won't. Even if swift lives onto the next round, chances are that we will lynch him anyway.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Who are they meant to trust? I sure wouldn't trust anyone who's posted today. Because if they send it to the wrong guy...death. If they send it to more than one person, increased chance of death.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->No, this is the pivotal point in the game. If the seer waits any longer, then the wolves are likely to have enough numbers to overrun us. If he waited less, then we might not be as desperate to believe him. If the seer did not show himself at all, then this day would still be very, very important. We cannot afford to lose another two human players at this stage, let alone 4.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Assuming the seer isn't working through Talesin.
Chances are this commotion wouldn't have happened if Talesin hadn't stepped forward. Me and Swift would accuse each other, with everyone else on the sidelines shuffling their feet and mumbling nervously.
We couldn't afford to lose a human player yesterday, either. The pressure's always on.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->By then it may be too late. If swift is human and Talesin is a wolf, then chances are that he has already done enough damage and they will be able to overrun us. I do hope that he shares some of his knowledge, however, as this is my first game and this is getting way out of my depth <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo--> <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If the wolves really do have a full pack at this stage, then they wouldn't need to gamble one of their people.
You missed out the other possibility: Swift is a wolf, and Talesin is a human. That would inflict an equal amount of damage, and we still lose. Again, Swift only has experience to offer - like you say, he hasn't networked as much this game. He says he's fairly out of the loop. Talesin could be covering for the seer.
Killing the only person the seer seems to confide in really would end the game.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If nem/swift <i>are</i> wolves, then we are buggered if we vote off Talesin. If only one of them is a wolf, then we still have pretty good chances. If none of them are wolves (which i think), then voting them off will guarantee our loss, while voting for Talesin will either put the humans or the wolves in a sticky situation, but a salvagable one.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So voting off the seer's mouthpiece is just "a sticky situation", whereas voting off a vanilla human this round gives us pretty good chances?
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I have absolutely no guarantee that the real seer will come out if we vote off Talesin, but it is the best chance that we have. Swift has experience, which will help us alot, if we listen to him. Hell, i might decry the real seer as well, but i doubt that the wolves would place another player on the line and in the spotlight, so i could probably trust him.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Is this experience good enough to pick off the wolves? Because according to you and him, all four wolves are alive and well.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->So voting off the seer's mouthpiece is just "a sticky situation", whereas voting off a vanilla human this round gives us pretty good chances?<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> This should read as:
"So voting off <i>someone who is at best</i> the seer's mouthpiece is just "a sticky situation", whereas voting off someone who is <i>at best</i> a vanilla human gives us pretty good chances?"
<!--QuoteBegin-Snidely+Apr 13 2005, 04:27 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Snidely @ Apr 13 2005, 04:27 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->No, this is the pivotal point in the game. If the seer waits any longer, then the wolves are likely to have enough numbers to overrun us. If he waited less, then we might not be as desperate to believe him. If the seer did not show himself at all, then this day would still be very, very important. We cannot afford to lose another two human players at this stage, let alone 4.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Assuming the seer isn't working through Talesin.
Chances are this commotion wouldn't have happened if Talesin hadn't stepped forward. Me and Swift would accuse each other, with everyone else on the sidelines shuffling their feet and mumbling nervously.
We couldn't afford to lose a human player yesterday, either. The pressure's always on. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> They were probably planning to do this before our thing even started.
As far as I'm concerned this is downright blatant. The wolfs obviously chose talesin to do this today, since, lets be honest here, he probably would have been voted off today anyways. Enough suspicions have been arised about him by several people.
I didn't even think talesin was a wolf, he seemed opinionated and was just about loud and expressive enough to be a human player. But after this I think there is no doubt.
The wolfs obviously belived that they could afford to lose talesin, so rather then letting him go out quietly or taking the off chance that something like the spit me and snidely were in causes someone asside from him to get voted off, they chose to throw in thier hand and go for the big win. Unless talesin is the last wolf alive, killing me and nem off consecutively would pretty much gaurentee a wolf win. Even if me and nem were wolfs, you would have to assume that NO other wolfs have been lynched this game in order to belive that killing talesin now would even give the wolfs a chance at victory. I have been told that that is the case... but based on todays events I'm not sure that I even trust the sourse. I'm sorry, I'd like to be able to find a way to give my life here and prove that talesin is the real threat, but there is just too much on the line. If me or nem dies, there is a very real possibility that the humans have already lost this game. If both of us die I can almost guarentee it.
Don't you go inserting this newfangled 'grammar' thingymajam into an otherwise pleasant situation <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
I'm not going to repeat what has been said above, I'll just note one thing: On day one, woned accused us of rash 'bandwagoning', claiming that this would be the downfall of the human team. Independently from today's eventual outcome, I'd just like to congratulate everyone on proving slacky wrong.
<!--QuoteBegin-Swiftspear+Apr 13 2005, 04:48 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Swiftspear @ Apr 13 2005, 04:48 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> They were probably planning to do this before our thing even started.
As far as I'm concerned this is downright blatant. The wolfs obviously chose talesin to do this today, since, lets be honest here, he probably would have been voted off today anyways. Enough suspicions have been arised about him by several people.
I didn't even think talesin was a wolf, he seemed opinionated and was just about loud and expressive enough to be a human player. But after this I think there is no doubt.
The wolfs obviously belived that they could afford to lose talesin, so rather then letting him go out quietly or taking the off chance that something like the spit me and snidely were in causes someone asside from him to get voted off, they chose to throw in thier hand and go for the big win. Unless talesin is the last wolf alive, killing me and nem off consecutively would pretty much gaurentee a wolf win. Even if me and nem were wolfs, you would have to assume that NO other wolfs have been lynched this game in order to belive that killing talesin now would even give the wolfs a chance at victory. I have been told that that is the case... but based on todays events I'm not sure that I even trust the sourse. I'm sorry, I'd like to be able to find a way to give my life here and prove that talesin is the real threat, but there is just too much on the line. If me or nem dies, there is a very real possibility that the humans have already lost this game. If both of us die I can almost guarentee it. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Why you and Nem? Why even you<i> or</i> Nem?
If Talesin wanted easy targets, he could have gone after "inactives". Instead, he chooses you (who most people trust; just look at last game), and Nemesis, who is pretty much clean. That's a stretch. If the wolves were desparate, then maybe. But if they're all alive, then there's no reason to assume that Talesin would put his neck on the line like this. He's fighting at a disadvantage.
If we want to play it safe, we can vote off you then Talesin. He goes last because he can potentially offer something "tomorrow".
Actually, it's not that easy, Snid. Pretty much everyone, including myself, voiced suspicions towards Swift during the Im Lost episode, and BadKarma essentially died with his finger pointing at me. One night later, Im Lost gets wolfed. I'd say we are the obvious high-profile players to accuse at this point, and you'll have to admit that the removal of either of us (assuming that we are human <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/wink-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->) is going to be more attractive to the wolves than, say, the demise of Hellfire and Cold Nite. From my vantage point, this whole episode, whether intiated by Tal or someone else, looks simply like a wolf team aiming high.
<!--QuoteBegin-Nemesis Zero+Apr 13 2005, 06:01 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Nemesis Zero @ Apr 13 2005, 06:01 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> Actually, it's not that easy, Snid. Pretty much everyone, including myself, voiced suspicions towards Swift during the Im Lost episode, and BadKarma essentially died with his finger pointing at me. One night later, Im Lost gets wolfed. I'd say we are the obvious high-profile players to accuse at this point, and you'll have to admit that the removal of either of us (assuming that we are human <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/wink-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->) is going to be more attractive to the wolves than, say, the demise of Hellfire and Cold Nite. From my vantage point, this whole episode, whether intiated by Tal or someone else, looks simply like a wolf team aiming high. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Attractive? Yes. But not to the extent of sacrificing a wolf. That's like exchanging a queen for a pawn. And I pretty much initiated this - Talesin just joined in. A wolf concerned with self-preservation wouldn't jump in like that, especially before people had taken sides. He might fan the flames with a gentle suggestion. I doubt he'd declare he's the will of the seer, which is a highly controversial move.
If people voiced suspicions, then I only heard one or two murmurs. Then again, I'm not in touch with a lot of people at the moment, I'll admit, so I can't really argue with you there. Looking over our correspondence, you never seemed to suspect Swift, anyway. Regardless, he's not been in grave danger of being voted off at any stage. In fact, I think my vote is the first cast against him...
As for BadKarma pointing a finger at you - he also pointed one at Talesin. It's unlikely he was right on both counts.
<!--QuoteBegin-brute force+Apr 13 2005, 09:50 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (brute force @ Apr 13 2005, 09:50 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> <!--QuoteBegin-Cold NiTe+Apr 13 2005, 12:06 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Cold NiTe @ Apr 13 2005, 12:06 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> So as a temporary vote, to prevent myself from acquiring a phantom vote against me, I am going to put myself down for <b>brute_force</b>. His sudden dissapearance has me raising my eyebrows. <!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> I'm sorry, what? Sudden disappearance? I have voted every day, and I'm in IRC as often as I can (usually). I, personally, do not recall ever seeing you in the IRC channel.
Anyway, I'm going to hold my vote for now. Not sure if I want to believe Talesin... <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> Don't take it the wrong way, mate. It was a temp vote. I've got far bigger targets on my mind, especially post-Talesin. At the worst, my one vote probably won't come to anything since people are going to divide into two camps, for or against the supposed seer gambit.
As for IRC, I've not used it much with regards to TWG, but I was under the assumption that it was optional. I don't really have much choice though, since I have to idle a channel on the Rizon server that I help run half the time and my comp freaks out if I try to stay on two servers at once. I'm thinking about switching from mIRC to something else, but that would be a pretty big upheaval for me I think.
======================= Ok so we got three camps here as far as I can tell. Talesin's camp, which would believe his seer contact. Swift's camp which would believe Talesin to be powerplaying and trying to fake seer contact as a wolf. (Which would be a pretty damn brilliant plan if you ask me, but the question is are the wolves smart enough to do something as insane as that, and could they really pull it off?) And the nuetral camp, that will probably ignore this situation entirely, or put up cast away votes for people who are not in any trouble of getting voted off.
<!--QuoteBegin-Cold NiTe+Apr 13 2005, 06:43 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Cold NiTe @ Apr 13 2005, 06:43 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--> ...And the nuetral camp, that will probably ignore this situation entirely, or put up cast away votes for people who are not in any trouble of getting voted off. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd--> How depressing. It's probably realistic, though.
What worries me though is that if Nemesis and Swift both vote against Talesin, I won't be able to make a single judgement about that. Why? Because they'd be perfectly justified in doing so. I think I've hit a roadblock here. Two of my targets are poised against each other, so I don't even know what that means.
The only other possibility is that the wolves are playing off each other and that Talesin is a wolf and one of the people he accused is a wolf, thus if Talesin really <i>is</i> sacrificing himself, as MuffinMan said, then he accused a wolf to ensure that one of the two survive. This brings up another point, I spoke with Talesin and he said that this coming "night" I would be seered next. The only way I can be sure if Talesin is a wolf or not depends on whether he accuses me or not. And even then, if this is a sham and he is a wolf then he could arguably just say I'm human and try to gain my trust that way.
I guess I'm slanting more towards Talesin now, but that's only because of the fact that while Swiftspear has been all over the map this game (perhaps not as much as last game though, I wouldn't know) Talesin is the one who has powerplayed here and claimed he knows the seer. We don't even know if the seer is even alive though.
I'll keep thinking about it. By the way lolfighter, how long till the night arrives?
Night is tomorrow, 9pm GMT. It usually says under the remaining player list at the beginning of each day/night.
If Talesin is the seer, then yeah, you're gonna get seered. If he's not, you may not. Who knows? Nemesis, Swift, Talesin, <span style='color:red'><b>Mystery Man X</b></span>...there's no discernable pattern. It depends whether the seer wants to find out all the wolves (risky) or build a network of humans.
In the end, go with your gut. If you feel that Swift et al are right, then vote for them. If you don't trust Swift at this point, then vote against him. There's not much else you can do, except look back at what's transpired. You're not going to find an easy decision, here.
I think both me and Muff mentioned a chat in IRC. Here it is.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><TheMuffinMan> lo brute <brute_force> lo muffin <TheMuffinMan> want a little discussion about the game? <brute_force> er, sure <TheMuffinMan> (: <TheMuffinMan> What are your opinions on Talesin coming out into the open? <Pulse-> <a href='http://mm8voiceacting.ytmnd.com/' target='_blank'>http://mm8voiceacting.ytmnd.com/</a> < wow <Pulse-> it's like they did it all in one take <brute_force> I really don't know. As I said in my earlier post, I don't trust him enough to go after Nem0, and he *does* have a pretty shoddy voting history (though that may be because of inexperience). <brute_force> I myself never found much about Nem0 that was wolf-like <TheMuffinMan> likewise <brute_force> if I were the guardian, I'd probably protect Talesin anyway, just in case... <TheMuffinMan> Aye, i agree <brute_force> However, I am just human so I'm going to wait with my vote, and see what happens <TheMuffinMan> heh <Pulse-> he's pretty safe even if the guardian is dead <Pulse-> safer than you or me, anyway <brute_force> why? if I were wolf I'd go for him probably <brute_force> since at that point you really don't know who could have contacted him <Pulse-> then you wouldn't make a very good wolf <brute_force> >_> <brute_force> probably not <Pulse-> wolfing him at this point would be suicide <brute_force> so explain yourself <Pulse-> oll let's kill the guy who claims we're wolves, *that* wouldn't be incriminating at ALL <brute_force> he only claimed two people so far <brute_force> one of which is dead <TheMuffinMan> i thought he claimed swift and nem <brute_force> obviously people would suspect Nem <Pulse-> which one is dead? <brute_force> .. <brute_force> er <brute_force> hold on, I might've misread something <SwiftSpear> WTH <brute_force> oh <SwiftSpear> talesin is a wolf <brute_force> right, sorry <brute_force> ok, so he's claimed two people <SwiftSpear> ya\ <SwiftSpear> me and nem <brute_force> even if he's wolfed tonight, what would that matter? <SwiftSpear> I don't know about nem <brute_force> we couldn't tell who did it <brute_force> for all we know, talesin might have been contacted by a wolf <brute_force> and then he's wolfed, to cast suspicion on swift and nem <SwiftSpear> he won't be wolfed tonight because he is a frigging wolf <brute_force> dunno about that <TheMuffinMan> or perhaps because the wolves would not dare waste a vote on him <TheMuffinMan> like i said in the forums, it is a good cover, if if he is a wolf <TheMuffinMan> It is too risky for a wolf to contact him, i think <brute_force> really? <TheMuffinMan> he is bound to write a will and send it out to a few confirmed humans <brute_force> talesin is fairly inexperienced <TheMuffinMan> if one of them is not dead already, that is <brute_force> how would he "confirm" these humans if the seer is a wolf? <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo--> <Pulse-> confirmed by who, though? <brute_force> (ie the revealed seer is a wolf) <brute_force> yeah <TheMuffinMan> fair point, im thinking ahead of myself <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo--> <TheMuffinMan> Either way, what if Talesin came out and told some people who had contacted him? If i was a wolf, i would not risk it <Pulse-> I still believe Talesin though <TheMuffinMan> if Talesin was the wolf himself, then there would be little to trace back to himself <TheMuffinMan> if i have to pick between nem and Talesin, i'll go with Talesin, probably <TheMuffinMan> one more point that i find pretty interesting: <TheMuffinMan> Out of the remaining very experienced players, im_lost for wolfed <TheMuffinMan> and swift was accused of being a wolf <TheMuffinMan> this pretty much leaves us newbies on our own, and we have little experience with this kind of complex play <SwiftSpear> I'm not a frigging wolf <TheMuffinMan> so? <TheMuffinMan> You think that anyone will believe you regardless? <SwiftSpear> I'm just an easy target because Ive been left clueless this game <TheMuffinMan> your opinion is pretty much null, sadly <SwiftSpear> look * brute_force has quit IRC (Ping timeout) <SwiftSpear> there is 3 maby four days before wolfs win the game, that is dependent on how many wolfs we have killed (1 maby 2, I really doubt more then one) <SwiftSpear> talesin is powerplaying here <SwiftSpear> we have no clue who the other wolfs are <TheMuffinMan> fair enough, but i don't really <TheMuffinMan> agree <TheMuffinMan> you are acting very defensively <Snidely> yeah, for someone with just one vote against them, you're getting a bit carried away <SwiftSpear> I have been openly accused of being a wolf by someone who claims to be involved with the seer <SwiftSpear> votes are irrelevent <TheMuffinMan> fair enough <TheMuffinMan> and, regardless of whether Talesin is lying or telling the truth, he has created a large smokescreen and bias against you and nem <SwiftSpear> fine then <SwiftSpear> I'm not going to tell you what to do <TheMuffinMan> Im siding with you mate :/ <SwiftSpear> I'm just going to tell you that talesin is a wolf trying to weed out early kills before the wolfs are screwed <SwiftSpear> today I die <SwiftSpear> human dies at night <SwiftSpear> tomorrow nem dies <SwiftSpear> human dies at night <Snidely> for a vanilla human, you seem awfully sure of yourself <Pulse-> yeah, you seem to know a little too much sometimes <TheMuffinMan> he has experience on his side <SwiftSpear> next day wolfs just wait for the first human to be voted for and then stack that vote for the win <Snidely> experience only goes so far <SwiftSpear> what do I know? <SwiftSpear> I'm just telling you how I see it <TheMuffinMan> Has Talesin really given us decent proof? <TheMuffinMan> Is it worth gambling the game on? <Pulse-> how do you prove that? <TheMuffinMan> You can't <TheMuffinMan> but it came at just the right time to divert attention towards swift and nem <Pulse-> you're gambling the game whether you go with Talesin or not <SwiftSpear> as far as I am concerned the seer is dead because I have heard absolutly nothing about him <Snidely> There's gonna be a point where you have to gamble, muff. <SwiftSpear> all I know is someone is openly accusing me <Snidely> That doesn't mean he's dead, Swift. <TheMuffinMan> If talesin dies, by vote or wolf, and another person comes forward <SwiftSpear> no <TheMuffinMan> then i would agree with them <TheMuffinMan> but it all seems too convenient <SwiftSpear> but the numbers are seriously thinned out <TheMuffinMan> our 2nd most experienced player dies <TheMuffinMan> our most experienced player is accused <TheMuffinMan> at the piviting point in the game <Snidely> why would the wolves leave someone like Swift for this long? <Snidely> giving him the chance to network? <TheMuffinMan> to use in this example <TheMuffinMan> they leave swift because at the moment, no offense, he is as good as lynched. Either him or nem <SwiftSpear> easy target later? <TheMuffinMan> and for all of us who believe in Talesin, will we believe in swift? <TheMuffinMan> this guy who is now a wolf, apparantly <SwiftSpear> there is a reason talesin is voting nem not me <Snidely> easy? as i see it, you're not going to get lynmched today; nem has a greater chance <TheMuffinMan> Your missing my point <TheMuffinMan> Talesin has turned the community against both nem and swift <TheMuffinMan> regarldess of who gets lynched, i doubt that we will believe the other one <Snidely> I agree there. <TheMuffinMan> so he has basically killed two birds with one stone <TheMuffinMan> and swept our most valuable assets from under out feet <Snidely> You just have to choose which one is more plausable. In my opinion, that's Tale. <TheMuffinMan> to be honest, i have absolutely no idea what to do now. I have no experience and there is little to learn in the other game end threads <TheMuffinMan> The way i see it <TheMuffinMan> if we vote Talesin off and another person comes forward, then fair enough, Talesin was telling the truth and we can believe this new human <TheMuffinMan> if we vote nem off, then a human gets wolfed <TheMuffinMan> then we lynch swift, and another human gets wolfed <TheMuffinMan> they mass vote us, we lose <TheMuffinMan> Like i said, this comes at a too damned convient time <TheMuffinMan> if this came yesterday or the day before, i would probably believe it <Snidely> why? <TheMuffinMan> as it stands, there is more to lose by agreeing with talesin than voting him off <Snidely> isn't it more likely that swift would be killed early on? <TheMuffinMan> not if the wolves were planning this <TheMuffinMan> swift has not been amazingly active in this game, which is a good guise for a wolf <Snidely> the wolves would never let him sit around and pull off what he did the last time <TheMuffinMan> I think that they would, as he is just coming into his element here <TheMuffinMan> where his experience will help us all <Snidely> or kill us all <TheMuffinMan> and what happens? He is accused and discredited <Pulse-> if this came yesterday or the day before, it would've been a complete waste for Talesin <TheMuffinMan> if he pms you and gives his opinion on who is a wolf, will you believe him or Talesin? <TheMuffinMan> to come out so openly, yes <Snidely> at this moment? talesin. <TheMuffinMan> i also find it funny that out of 4 seerings, two of them come out as wolves <TheMuffinMan> unlikely, but possible <Snidely> if you want to be sure, muf, vote for one today and the other tomorrow. one of them's a wolf, right? <SwiftSpear> talesin has made this hard on you. You either choose to kill me and nem and give the game to the wolfs, or you kill him at some point and not me and nem and give yourself a chance <TheMuffinMan> exactly <TheMuffinMan> too damned convenient <SwiftSpear> it's one or the other, there is no way to have both <Snidely> pfft - we don't give ourselves a chance oif you're both wolves! <TheMuffinMan> perhaps swift is an actual wolf and this is all a game, yes <TheMuffinMan> but i doubt it <Snidely> it's not convienient because swift is too good a player to leave alone <TheMuffinMan> that is really flipping elabourate <Snidely> welcome to TWG <Snidely> (: <TheMuffinMan> (: <lolfighter> That's my line! <SwiftSpear> I'm also an easy target because I am the last experianced player <Snidely> not any more, baby <TheMuffinMan> Either way, i still think that we have more to lose by siding with Talesin <lolfighter> Errm... <lolfighter> I'm not listening. * lolfighter hides in the closet again <SwiftSpear> he's hoping that it makes it look obvious that I bumped off all the others <SwiftSpear> trust me, I'm not that stupid <Snidely> maybe you think we are <Snidely> (: <SwiftSpear> experianced players are threatening, but if I am a wolf I am ONLY hunting the seer <SwiftSpear> and none of the experianced players were good canditites for seer <Snidely> an experienced seer is going to be more dangerous than a noob seer <SwiftSpear> they were all too loud and active <Snidely> might as well be sure <TheMuffinMan> What happens if you are wrong? <Snidely> who, me? <TheMuffinMan> You vote off nem, you vote of swift, two humans are wolfed and they win <SwiftSpear> the seer wastes the wolfs if they don't get him <Snidely> we don't know that they're humans <SwiftSpear> experiance is irrelevent of that fact <TheMuffinMan> If Talesin is telling the truth, then the game is over anyway <Snidely> not if noone believes him <SwiftSpear> I lost my network of contacts almost compleatly every time it started to form this game <TheMuffinMan> Then we vote him off <TheMuffinMan> if another human comes out, then we can believe him and vote off the wolves <Snidely> i'm not willing to take that risk <Snidely> why can you believe him? he vcould be another wolf <TheMuffinMan> He could be <SwiftSpear> the game is over one way or another <TheMuffinMan> but if i side with Talesin and am wrong, we lose <SwiftSpear> you just have to decide who you trust <TheMuffinMan> if i side with swift and am wrong, we can still pull it back <Snidely> how? <Snidely> what if the seer gets another wolf? <Snidely> and what if talesin IS the seer? <lolfighter> What if I am a bananana? * TheMuffinMan has quit IRC (Ping timeout) <lolfighter> Imagine the impact THAT would have on the game! <Snidely> i...am a banana! <Snidely> Mah spoon is too big <lolfighter> No no, not banana. <lolfighter> Bananana. <Snidely> or is it the other way around <lolfighter> It's the other way around. <Snidely> regardless, my anus is bleeding <lolfighter> Ewww! <Snidely> take THAT, lady virtue! * lolfighter stuffs a tampon into Snidely <lolfighter> Plugged! <Snidely> :| <Snidely> It's surpisingly comfy <Pulse-> I like the way SwiftSpear conveys this situation <SwiftSpear> what? <Pulse-> either you're with him or you LOSE THE GAME OMG <SwiftSpear> it is either or <Snidely> heh <SwiftSpear> ok fine. COME WITH ME AND YOU WIN THE GAME! <Snidely> what happened to the willingness to sacrifice yourself? <Snidely> <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo--> <SwiftSpear> WE CAN ALL STILL WIN! <SwiftSpear> I AM NOT WILLING TO SACRIFICE MYSELF FOR A WOLF WIN! <Snidely> hmm. if you die, we can still win <SwiftSpear> I am more then happy to give them my life during the night <SwiftSpear> no <SwiftSpear> if you kill me and nem you lose <Snidely> why? <SwiftSpear> there is no winning <SwiftSpear> you need to have already killed off all but one wolf to win this game <Snidely> how can you be so sure nem isn't a wolf? <SwiftSpear> talesin knows that <SwiftSpear> he wouldn't be making this move if he were the last wolf <SwiftSpear> maby he is <SwiftSpear> I really doubt the wolfs would bother to do that this late though <SwiftSpear> and if you kill nem talesin and me and nem ISN'T a wolf then you are still dead <SwiftSpear> there is only two conditions in which this is a good move for talesin <SwiftSpear> either he is the seers frontman <SwiftSpear> or he is a wolf accusing two humans <Snidely> or he is the seer himself <SwiftSpear> that works too <Snidely> whereas you seem to either be a human (innocent) or a wolf <SwiftSpear> indeed <Snidely> and as i said, you seem to be more wolf to me <Snidely> *shurg* <Snidely> *shrug*, even <SwiftSpear> I don't understand your priorities <Snidely> my priority is to vote off the person I think is most likely a wolf <SwiftSpear> if me and nem are humans and die it will never have mattered that talesin may have been the seer <Snidely> i already suspected you, and talesin coming out is just icing on the cake <SwiftSpear> keeping him alive longer now does you no good <Snidely> that applies to you, too <SwiftSpear> I know it is from your presepctive, but I am not a wolf, sorry <Snidely> well, there's not much I can do about that <SwiftSpear> I still don't get you, are you a wolf or are you just paranoyed? <SwiftSpear> I already explained to you about the whole im lost thing, and you said you were more concerned about cold nite <Snidely> I already said - you seem like the most likely person to be a wolf <SwiftSpear> I even have a PM from you about it <Snidely> That changed when I looked over things again <Snidely> Like I said in the thread <SwiftSpear> this seems to be some very strange gameplay you have going on here <SwiftSpear> fair enough <Snidely> anyway, i gotta do the washing up before my sis gets back. >.< i'll see you around.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's the point where I left to do washing up/cook food. ;P
So for me it comes down to either gambling with MuffinMan, and seeing if the seer gets another frontman like Talesin, then we KNOW he's the real thing, or going through with my older conviction about Swiftspear.
Maybe. But Talesin could be a wolf, and if we kill him, another wolf could claim to be the seer.
If his story has anything to do with real life, there should be 2 other humans. Why didn't he reveal them? Wouldn't that help to ensure we didn't vote against them?
<!--QuoteBegin-Snidely+Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Snidely @ Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Night is tomorrow, 9pm GMT. It usually says under the remaining player list at the beginning of each day/night.
If Talesin is the seer, then yeah, you're gonna get seered. If he's not, you may not. Who knows? Nemesis, Swift, Talesin, <span style='color:red'><b>Mystery Man X</b></span>...there's no discernable pattern. It depends whether the seer wants to find out all the wolves (risky) or build a network of humans.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd--> Yeah I guess so. I just wonder why he didn't end up building a larger network of humans. Where is the other human he seered? And what are the chances of a seer getting 2 wolves in 4 nights. That's out of quite a few, counting those who have died? I'm smelling a wolf setup. And I don't even know if Talesin is in on it. He could be a tool and he might not even know it. Though that doesn't seem likely to me.
<!--QuoteBegin-Snidely+Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Snidely @ Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->In the end, go with your gut. If you feel that Swift et al are right, then vote for them. If you don't trust Swift at this point, then vote against him. There's not much else you can do, except look back at what's transpired. <b>You're not going to find an easy decision, here.</b><!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I just thought I should add, the reason I think both humans that the seer found would reveal themselves is because the wolves wouldn't take that sort of a risk, <i>putting two of their men up front.</i> So if Talesin and whoever <span style='color:red'>MysterymanX</span> is had come out at the same time, that makes things more plausible, and should either of them have gotten wolfed, that would throw things in the face of the people they accused.
(Though lets not even go into Nem0 and Swift being set up. If Talesin is a human and a tool for the wolves, and the wolves get the idea of killing Talesin just to make us think Nem0 and Swift did it, well I might as well give up right now, before my head explodes.)
TalesinOur own little well of hateJoin Date: 2002-11-08Member: 7710NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators
edited April 2005
This is going to sound incriminating, but I just got home and read through my PMs. During work, I was contacted by a shield for the Psychic. He said that there are FOUR wolves remaining in the game. At the moment, our small circle of humans, as well as the psychic's spokesman, and the psychic via anonymous email are working toward going through logs to figure out who is the most likely.
<b>NemesisZero</b> remains my vote. I am hoping that the psychic's representative will come forth tomorrow, to state the remaining number himself. If Nem is lynched tonight, and the number goes down, my innocence may be validated. If I am still under suspicion, I will accept a lynching tomorrow... the general reduction (by Nem) will at least delay the wolves' ability to instalynch the rest of the humans. The other confirmed human may take my place as a mouthpiece, if he feels like placing himself in similar danger.
The current list of confirmed, and under suspicion: <b>NemesisZero</b> Swiftspear Mantrid (To be scanned tonight, kept people from banding together in the past) TheMuffinMan (IRC grandstanding, insisting that killing Nem OR Swift would lose the game for the humans)
Please note that the last two are NOT certain, and are just the small circle's 'most likely' on the list.
As for my own position, I can only say that I am human. The person who contacted me as the Seer may actually be a wolf, using me for his own ends, but for the time being, it is the only information that I have to work with. The 'convenient' seering of two wolves actually makes sense... I was Seered first, having a fairly high profile on the forums, as well as being a newbie. Nem was seered second, having similar notoriety. The other confirmed human was seered third. By the fourth night, enough had played out to make an educated guess as to SwiftSpear, based upon Nem's posting habits. The wolves taking a 'reversal' role this game, defending people who were pointed out, so that they could defend one another in the case of a fingering (as this), without falling out of step. I will not list the other confirmed-human until he gives his permission, as even being known as having been seered places them at risk. Same with the front-man for the Psychic, though he has NOT been confirmed as human. Mantrid, one of the 'other humans' is the seer. You will be scanned tonight. If you are shown to be 'clear', the seer will contact you.
Again. I am willing to accept a lynch tomorrow night, in exchange for a show of faith today. There is another to carry on the information that those remaining humans NEED, whether it is believed or not.
(On a side note, it's actually more of a pain that we DID find two wolves early in the game. Having a larger circle of humans makes things easier... gives you more people to talk to, and narrows the number of might-be wolves. <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo--> Unfortunately, with our small numbers, and apparent wide misses on lynchings, this is more a last-gasp attempt to pull out a win. I was already under suspicion, so I might as well go out and leave information behind.)
TalesinOur own little well of hateJoin Date: 2002-11-08Member: 7710NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators
Actually, mantrid, cold... please hold. Having a discussion on which will be seered. The Seer wants to confirm wolves, I'd rather bring more humans into the circle. We have two confirmed wolves, so my reasoning is that we can afford to 'burn' a night to confirm a human, and show good faith.
TalesinOur own little well of hateJoin Date: 2002-11-08Member: 7710NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators
After discussion, Cold will be scanned. Adding humans to the circle is more important at the moment.
I am personally favoring the 'chips on the table' approach, if it wasn't already clear. It is not my decision to speak for the other confirmed human or psychic-contact, which is why I am omitting their names. I would urge them to come forward though, of their own will.
Also, Nem... you may have made an error. You questioned my motives, restated your place in the game (which leads to my suspicion that the wolves are trying a new tactic, defending others that are under accusation) and the reason I had waited so long. But you did not question that I had been contacted by the Seer.
As for the real reason that SwiftSpear was scanned fourth... he was verbose, and seemed to take note of detail. I'd asked to have him scanned that night, to add him to our arsenal of reasoning. The seer and other confirmed human agreed that he would be a valuable addition, but we were still refusing to add anyone to the circle unless they had been scanned. I was told that he came back as a wolf.
My 'power-play' was instigated at that point, against the advice of the Seer. We had two ID'd wolves, and not enough humans to do anything about it. Going public accomplished two things. It gave that information to the remaining humans in the event of my death, and reduced the likelihood of an 'accidental' wolfing among our known humans by a third.
I like how before it was all done as part of the story, and NOW it gets elaborate and sensical. We've all seen hoaxes before. They always develop long after the fact, and are easiest to pick out while they are still raw and flawed.
I have to admit, he's presented a fairly convincing case. The fact is that it is unfortunately not at all representivive of fact.
TalesinOur own little well of hateJoin Date: 2002-11-08Member: 7710NS1 Playtester, Forum Moderators
The story could not make sense... theoretically, he'd scan Heartline first to try and get him up and about again. But that would add an 'extra' scan, that the story timeline could not support.
My 'out of character' posts (read: not part of the story) have been truthful insofar as I am aware. I cannot verify the Seer, but am willing to take him at his word. Reviewing the prior games, it would make sense for the wolves to try a new tactic.
Also, Mantrid and Swiftspear were both looking over the thread, shortly after Swift left the IRC channel, following my post. That, to me at least, implies a degree of connection or communication between them. It could be as simple as 'Talesin listed you as a might-be wolf', or have a much more sinister tint. It could also be sheer coincidence... but we need any vector possible to establish links.
Also, I am perfectly willing to post PM logs regarding the decision to scan Swift, with names of the other human and Seer removed, if anyone would count them as valid evidence.
Comments
Cold NiTe - 0.1
Hellfire3k - 0.1
Swiftspear - 1 (Snidely)
brute force - 1 (Cold NiTe)
Nemesis Zero - 2 (Talesin, Pulse)
Talesin - 1 (Swiftspear)
Talesin however has given you an either or proposition. Either me and nem are wolfs and we all lose the game if you don't kill us. Or he is a wolf and we all lose the game if you kill me and nem.
This is the perfect time for the wolfs to powerplay, and if the seer is still alive I urge you to counter this RIGHT NOW, because we have no other chance in hell here.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
We chatted about this to quite an extend in irc before i crashed (ntl's grid went down, took ages to come back up), and i have an opinion on this as well.
Throughout this entire game, the wolves have eliminated experienced players (barring saltzbad, but i won't go into that now). Before last night, there were two very experienced players left - im_lost and swiftspear. Im_lost was wolfed, and the wolves' plan is now coming into action. With only one experienced player left, Talesin comes out and announces that not only Nemesis Zero is a wolf, but our most experienced player - Swiftspear.
This is exactly the situation when an experienced player is needed, as his first hand experience will help us identify whether Talesin is telling the truth. Now that he has been accused, who will trust him? The wolves have killed off the players with the best experience, and have effectively killed swiftspear. Now, according to their plan we will either lynch nemesis zero or swiftspear - it does not matter who. Another human player will go that night, and on the next night we will lynch whichever one was not lynched the day before. Now, another human will be wolfed and we will lose.
Consider that, of all the times that the seer can decide to come forward, he does it at this point - the pivital point in the game. Consider that in four days the seer found two wolves (possibly 3) and 1 human (possibly 2). I know that it is possible, but it is pretty damn rare. Consider that out of the two wolves, one of our sharpest players (Nem) is among them, along with our most experienced player (swiftspear). Coincidence? If we vote off either of them, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot, and the following night we will be severing our own head.
But what, i hear you ask, if Talesin is telling the truth? What if Nem and Spear are actually wolves? In that case, we have a choice to make, and a way to find if Talesin is really telling the truth:
We vote Talesin off this round. Now, the seer will have another chance to seer somebody, and hopefully find a human (if not, he alreadys knows who two of the wolves are, so he can make a decent guess). He tells that human, and he tells us. Are the wolves going to risk putting another player in the spotligh? Hell no. Chances are that they have already lost one, so losing Talesin will push them into <i>very</i> dangerous ground. Therefore, we believe the new player and use his information to vote off the wolves one by one, winning the game. If no one comes out, then we play as we normally do and wait for a break. At this rate, we should be able to vote off the wolves in time.
If we do not make this choice, and choose to believe Talesin (who has absolutely no proof, even for twg standards) then we are buggered if he is a wolf. If he is not, great, but are you all willing to take an all or nothing risk?
If we choose to vote off Talesin, and he was a wolf, then great, game nearly won. If he was not another wolf, then the seer can choose to come out under another person and we still have a high chance of winning.
So, what is it folks? A guaranteed win/guaranteed loss, or a good chance of winning and a low chance of loosing? I prefer the sound of the latter option. <b>Talesin</b>.
Talesin however has given you an either or proposition. Either me and nem are wolfs and we all lose the game if you don't kill us. Or he is a wolf and we all lose the game if you kill me and nem.
This is the perfect time for the wolfs to powerplay, and if the seer is still alive I urge you to counter this RIGHT NOW, because we have no other chance in hell here.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
We chatted about this to quite an extend in irc before i crashed (ntl's grid went down, took ages to come back up), and i have an opinion on this as well.
Throughout this entire game, the wolves have eliminated experienced players (barring saltzbad, but i won't go into that now). Before last night, there were two very experienced players left - im_lost and swiftspear. Im_lost was wolfed, and the wolves' plan is now coming into action. With only one experienced player left, Talesin comes out and announces that not only Nemesis Zero is a wolf, but our most experienced player - Swiftspear. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
Ugh. We talked about this on IRC. The wolves are obviously not stupid, and letting Swiftspear build up a human network would pose far too great a threat to them.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->This is exactly the situation when an experienced player is needed, as his first hand experience will help us identify whether Talesin is telling the truth. Now that he has been accused, who will trust him? The wolves have killed off the players with the best experience, and have effectively killed swiftspear. Now, according to their plan we will either lynch nemesis zero or swiftspear - it does not matter who. Another human player will go that night, and on the next night we will lynch whichever one was not lynched the day before. Now, another human will be wolfed and we will lose.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Erm, it <i>would</i> matter now if you're correct. At the moment, Nemesis Zero has the most votes, not Swiftspear. It looks like Swiftspear will live on to the next round (although it is early to tell).
As for "who will trust him" - well, it looks like you do, for a start.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Consider that, of all the times that the seer can decide to come forward, he does it at this point - the pivital point in the game. Consider that in four days the seer found two wolves (possibly 3) and 1 human (possibly 2). I know that it is possible, but it is pretty damn rare. Consider that out of the two wolves, one of our sharpest players (Nem) is among them, along with our most experienced player (swiftspear). Coincidence? If we vote off either of them, we will be shooting ourselves in the foot, and the following night we will be severing our own head.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
The time that the seer (if Talesin <i>is</i> the seer) comes forward is the pivotal point in the game.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->But what, i hear you ask, if Talesin is telling the truth? What if Nem and Spear are actually wolves? In that case, we have a choice to make, and a way to find if Talesin is really telling the truth:
We vote Talesin off this round. Now, the seer will have another chance to seer somebody, and hopefully find a human (if not, he alreadys knows who two of the wolves are, so he can make a decent guess). He tells that human, and he tells us. Are the wolves going to risk putting another player in the spotligh? Hell no. Chances are that they have already lost one, so losing Talesin will push them into <i>very</i> dangerous ground. Therefore, we believe the new player and use his information to vote off the wolves one by one, winning the game. If no one comes out, then we play as we normally do and wait for a break. At this rate, we should be able to vote off the wolves in time.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Better to vote for Swift this round, and Talesin the next. Swift has nothing to offer except advice, which he can impart now if he so chooses.
On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->If we do not make this choice, and choose to believe Talesin (who has absolutely no proof, even for twg standards) then we are buggered if he is a wolf. If he is not, great, but are you all willing to take an all or nothing risk?
If we choose to vote off Talesin, and he was a wolf, then great, game nearly won. If he was not another wolf, then the seer can choose to come out under another person and we still have a high chance of winning.
So, what is it folks? A guaranteed win/guaranteed loss, or a good chance of winning and a low chance of loosing? I prefer the sound of the latter option. <b>Talesin</b>.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?
I agree, to an extent. I would have chosen another experienced player to leave in the game, but this is the way that the cards have been dealt. Swift has stated several times that he has not put anywhere near as much time into this game as he did into twg2, and i believe him.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Erm, it would matter now if you're correct. At the moment, Nemesis Zero has the most votes, not Swiftspear. It looks like Swiftspear will live on to the next round (although it is early to tell).
As for "who will trust him" - well, it looks like you do, for a start.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
How hard would it be for a "physic" to contact someone and tell them that nem was actually a wolf? And like i said, i trust him (more than Talesin, at least), but most others won't. Even if swift lives onto the next round, chances are that we will lynch him anyway.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->The time that the seer (if Talesin is the seer) comes forward is the pivotal point in the game.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
No, this is the pivotal point in the game. If the seer waits any longer, then the wolves are likely to have enough numbers to overrun us. If he waited less, then we might not be as desperate to believe him. If the seer did not show himself at all, then this day would still be very, very important. We cannot afford to lose another two human players at this stage, let alone 4.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Better to vote for Swift this round, and Talesin the next. Swift has nothing to offer except advice, which he can impart now if he so chooses.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
By then it may be too late. If swift is human and Talesin is a wolf, then chances are that he has already done enough damage and they will be able to overrun us. I do hope that he shares some of his knowledge, however, as this is my first game and this is getting way out of my depth <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If nem/swift <i>are</i> wolves, then we are buggered if we vote off Talesin. If only one of them is a wolf, then we still have pretty good chances. If none of them are wolves (which i think), then voting them off will guarantee our loss, while voting for Talesin will either put the humans or the wolves in a sticky situation, but a salvagable one.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I have absolutely no guarantee that the real seer will come out if we vote off Talesin, but it is the best chance that we have. Swift has experience, which will help us alot, if we listen to him. Hell, i might decry the real seer as well, but i doubt that the wolves would place another player on the line and in the spotlight, so i could probably trust him.
The wolves could not have known that, however.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->How hard would it be for a "physic" to contact someone and tell them that nem was actually a wolf? And like i said, i trust him (more than Talesin, at least), but most others won't. Even if swift lives onto the next round, chances are that we will lynch him anyway.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Who are they meant to trust? I sure wouldn't trust anyone who's posted today. Because if they send it to the wrong guy...death. If they send it to more than one person, increased chance of death.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->No, this is the pivotal point in the game. If the seer waits any longer, then the wolves are likely to have enough numbers to overrun us. If he waited less, then we might not be as desperate to believe him. If the seer did not show himself at all, then this day would still be very, very important. We cannot afford to lose another two human players at this stage, let alone 4.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Assuming the seer isn't working through Talesin.
Chances are this commotion wouldn't have happened if Talesin hadn't stepped forward. Me and Swift would accuse each other, with everyone else on the sidelines shuffling their feet and mumbling nervously.
We couldn't afford to lose a human player yesterday, either. The pressure's always on.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->By then it may be too late. If swift is human and Talesin is a wolf, then chances are that he has already done enough damage and they will be able to overrun us. I do hope that he shares some of his knowledge, however, as this is my first game and this is getting way out of my depth <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If the wolves really do have a full pack at this stage, then they wouldn't need to gamble one of their people.
You missed out the other possibility: Swift is a wolf, and Talesin is a human. That would inflict an equal amount of damage, and we still lose. Again, Swift only has experience to offer - like you say, he hasn't networked as much this game. He says he's fairly out of the loop. Talesin could be covering for the seer.
Killing the only person the seer seems to confide in really would end the game.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->On the one hand, you talk about chances being bad that both Nem and Swift are wolves, and that we'll lose in two rounds time due to voting off too many humans. On the other, you say chances are good that we've killed at least one wolf; you also say chances are good that the real seer will come forward, one way or another. I don't agree with your reasoning.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
If nem/swift <i>are</i> wolves, then we are buggered if we vote off Talesin. If only one of them is a wolf, then we still have pretty good chances. If none of them are wolves (which i think), then voting them off will guarantee our loss, while voting for Talesin will either put the humans or the wolves in a sticky situation, but a salvagable one.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
So voting off the seer's mouthpiece is just "a sticky situation", whereas voting off a vanilla human this round gives us pretty good chances?
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->Again, what does Swift have apart from advice? And what guarrantee do we have that the seer will come forward? What guarrantee do we have that you won't decry him, too?<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
I have absolutely no guarantee that the real seer will come out if we vote off Talesin, but it is the best chance that we have. Swift has experience, which will help us alot, if we listen to him. Hell, i might decry the real seer as well, but i doubt that the wolves would place another player on the line and in the spotlight, so i could probably trust him.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Is this experience good enough to pick off the wolves? Because according to you and him, all four wolves are alive and well.
This should read as:
"So voting off <i>someone who is at best</i> the seer's mouthpiece is just "a sticky situation", whereas voting off someone who is <i>at best</i> a vanilla human gives us pretty good chances?"
Assuming the seer isn't working through Talesin.
Chances are this commotion wouldn't have happened if Talesin hadn't stepped forward. Me and Swift would accuse each other, with everyone else on the sidelines shuffling their feet and mumbling nervously.
We couldn't afford to lose a human player yesterday, either. The pressure's always on. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
They were probably planning to do this before our thing even started.
As far as I'm concerned this is downright blatant. The wolfs obviously chose talesin to do this today, since, lets be honest here, he probably would have been voted off today anyways. Enough suspicions have been arised about him by several people.
I didn't even think talesin was a wolf, he seemed opinionated and was just about loud and expressive enough to be a human player. But after this I think there is no doubt.
The wolfs obviously belived that they could afford to lose talesin, so rather then letting him go out quietly or taking the off chance that something like the spit me and snidely were in causes someone asside from him to get voted off, they chose to throw in thier hand and go for the big win. Unless talesin is the last wolf alive, killing me and nem off consecutively would pretty much gaurentee a wolf win. Even if me and nem were wolfs, you would have to assume that NO other wolfs have been lynched this game in order to belive that killing talesin now would even give the wolfs a chance at victory. I have been told that that is the case... but based on todays events I'm not sure that I even trust the sourse. I'm sorry, I'd like to be able to find a way to give my life here and prove that talesin is the real threat, but there is just too much on the line. If me or nem dies, there is a very real possibility that the humans have already lost this game. If both of us die I can almost guarentee it.
Cold NiTe - 0.1
Hellfire3k - 0.1
Swiftspear - 1 (Snidely)
brute force - 1 (Cold NiTe)
Nemesis Zero - 2 (Talesin, Pulse)
Talesin - 2 (Swiftspear, TheMuffinMan)
I'm not going to repeat what has been said above, I'll just note one thing: On day one, woned accused us of rash 'bandwagoning', claiming that this would be the downfall of the human team. Independently from today's eventual outcome, I'd just like to congratulate everyone on proving slacky wrong.
As far as I'm concerned this is downright blatant. The wolfs obviously chose talesin to do this today, since, lets be honest here, he probably would have been voted off today anyways. Enough suspicions have been arised about him by several people.
I didn't even think talesin was a wolf, he seemed opinionated and was just about loud and expressive enough to be a human player. But after this I think there is no doubt.
The wolfs obviously belived that they could afford to lose talesin, so rather then letting him go out quietly or taking the off chance that something like the spit me and snidely were in causes someone asside from him to get voted off, they chose to throw in thier hand and go for the big win. Unless talesin is the last wolf alive, killing me and nem off consecutively would pretty much gaurentee a wolf win. Even if me and nem were wolfs, you would have to assume that NO other wolfs have been lynched this game in order to belive that killing talesin now would even give the wolfs a chance at victory. I have been told that that is the case... but based on todays events I'm not sure that I even trust the sourse. I'm sorry, I'd like to be able to find a way to give my life here and prove that talesin is the real threat, but there is just too much on the line. If me or nem dies, there is a very real possibility that the humans have already lost this game. If both of us die I can almost guarentee it. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
Why you and Nem? Why even you<i> or</i> Nem?
If Talesin wanted easy targets, he could have gone after "inactives". Instead, he chooses you (who most people trust; just look at last game), and Nemesis, who is pretty much clean. That's a stretch. If the wolves were desparate, then maybe. But if they're all alive, then there's no reason to assume that Talesin would put his neck on the line like this. He's fighting at a disadvantage.
If we want to play it safe, we can vote off you then Talesin. He goes last because he can potentially offer something "tomorrow".
I'd say we are the obvious high-profile players to accuse at this point, and you'll have to admit that the removal of either of us (assuming that we are human <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/wink-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->) is going to be more attractive to the wolves than, say, the demise of Hellfire and Cold Nite. From my vantage point, this whole episode, whether intiated by Tal or someone else, looks simply like a wolf team aiming high.
I'd say we are the obvious high-profile players to accuse at this point, and you'll have to admit that the removal of either of us (assuming that we are human <!--emo&;)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/wink-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='wink-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->) is going to be more attractive to the wolves than, say, the demise of Hellfire and Cold Nite. From my vantage point, this whole episode, whether intiated by Tal or someone else, looks simply like a wolf team aiming high. <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
Attractive? Yes. But not to the extent of sacrificing a wolf. That's like exchanging a queen for a pawn. And I pretty much initiated this - Talesin just joined in. A wolf concerned with self-preservation wouldn't jump in like that, especially before people had taken sides. He might fan the flames with a gentle suggestion. I doubt he'd declare he's the will of the seer, which is a highly controversial move.
If people voiced suspicions, then I only heard one or two murmurs. Then again, I'm not in touch with a lot of people at the moment, I'll admit, so I can't really argue with you there. Looking over our correspondence, you never seemed to suspect Swift, anyway. Regardless, he's not been in grave danger of being voted off at any stage. In fact, I think my vote is the first cast against him...
As for BadKarma pointing a finger at you - he also pointed one at Talesin. It's unlikely he was right on both counts.
I'm sorry, what? Sudden disappearance? I have voted every day, and I'm in IRC as often as I can (usually). I, personally, do not recall ever seeing you in the IRC channel.
Anyway, I'm going to hold my vote for now. Not sure if I want to believe Talesin... <!--QuoteEnd--> </td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'> <!--QuoteEEnd-->
Don't take it the wrong way, mate. It was a temp vote. I've got far bigger targets on my mind, especially post-Talesin. At the worst, my one vote probably won't come to anything since people are going to divide into two camps, for or against the supposed seer gambit.
As for IRC, I've not used it much with regards to TWG, but I was under the assumption that it was optional. I don't really have much choice though, since I have to idle a channel on the Rizon server that I help run half the time and my comp freaks out if I try to stay on two servers at once. I'm thinking about switching from mIRC to something else, but that would be a pretty big upheaval for me I think.
=======================
Ok so we got three camps here as far as I can tell. Talesin's camp, which would believe his seer contact. Swift's camp which would believe Talesin to be powerplaying and trying to fake seer contact as a wolf. (Which would be a pretty damn brilliant plan if you ask me, but the question is are the wolves smart enough to do something as insane as that, and could they really pull it off?) And the nuetral camp, that will probably ignore this situation entirely, or put up cast away votes for people who are not in any trouble of getting voted off.
How depressing. It's probably realistic, though.
The only other possibility is that the wolves are playing off each other and that Talesin is a wolf and one of the people he accused is a wolf, thus if Talesin really <i>is</i> sacrificing himself, as MuffinMan said, then he accused a wolf to ensure that one of the two survive. This brings up another point, I spoke with Talesin and he said that this coming "night" I would be seered next. The only way I can be sure if Talesin is a wolf or not depends on whether he accuses me or not. And even then, if this is a sham and he is a wolf then he could arguably just say I'm human and try to gain my trust that way.
I guess I'm slanting more towards Talesin now, but that's only because of the fact that while Swiftspear has been all over the map this game (perhaps not as much as last game though, I wouldn't know) Talesin is the one who has powerplayed here and claimed he knows the seer. We don't even know if the seer is even alive though.
I'll keep thinking about it. By the way lolfighter, how long till the night arrives?
If Talesin is the seer, then yeah, you're gonna get seered. If he's not, you may not. Who knows? Nemesis, Swift, Talesin, <span style='color:red'><b>Mystery Man X</b></span>...there's no discernable pattern. It depends whether the seer wants to find out all the wolves (risky) or build a network of humans.
In the end, go with your gut. If you feel that Swift et al are right, then vote for them. If you don't trust Swift at this point, then vote against him. There's not much else you can do, except look back at what's transpired. You're not going to find an easy decision, here.
<!--QuoteBegin--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> </td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin--><TheMuffinMan> lo brute
<brute_force> lo muffin
<TheMuffinMan> want a little discussion about the game?
<brute_force> er, sure
<TheMuffinMan> (:
<TheMuffinMan> What are your opinions on Talesin coming out into the open?
<Pulse-> <a href='http://mm8voiceacting.ytmnd.com/' target='_blank'>http://mm8voiceacting.ytmnd.com/</a> < wow
<Pulse-> it's like they did it all in one take
<brute_force> I really don't know. As I said in my earlier post, I don't trust him enough to go after Nem0, and he *does* have a pretty shoddy voting history (though that may be because of inexperience).
<brute_force> I myself never found much about Nem0 that was wolf-like
<TheMuffinMan> likewise
<brute_force> if I were the guardian, I'd probably protect Talesin anyway, just in case...
<TheMuffinMan> Aye, i agree
<brute_force> However, I am just human so I'm going to wait with my vote, and see what happens
<TheMuffinMan> heh
<Pulse-> he's pretty safe even if the guardian is dead
<Pulse-> safer than you or me, anyway
<brute_force> why? if I were wolf I'd go for him probably
<brute_force> since at that point you really don't know who could have contacted him
<Pulse-> then you wouldn't make a very good wolf
<brute_force> >_>
<brute_force> probably not
<Pulse-> wolfing him at this point would be suicide
<brute_force> so explain yourself
<Pulse-> oll let's kill the guy who claims we're wolves, *that* wouldn't be incriminating at ALL
<brute_force> he only claimed two people so far
<brute_force> one of which is dead
<TheMuffinMan> i thought he claimed swift and nem
<brute_force> obviously people would suspect Nem
<Pulse-> which one is dead?
<brute_force> ..
<brute_force> er
<brute_force> hold on, I might've misread something
<SwiftSpear> WTH
<brute_force> oh
<SwiftSpear> talesin is a wolf
<brute_force> right, sorry
<brute_force> ok, so he's claimed two people
<SwiftSpear> ya\
<SwiftSpear> me and nem
<brute_force> even if he's wolfed tonight, what would that matter?
<SwiftSpear> I don't know about nem
<brute_force> we couldn't tell who did it
<brute_force> for all we know, talesin might have been contacted by a wolf
<brute_force> and then he's wolfed, to cast suspicion on swift and nem
<SwiftSpear> he won't be wolfed tonight because he is a frigging wolf
<brute_force> dunno about that
<TheMuffinMan> or perhaps because the wolves would not dare waste a vote on him
<TheMuffinMan> like i said in the forums, it is a good cover, if if he is a wolf
<TheMuffinMan> It is too risky for a wolf to contact him, i think
<brute_force> really?
<TheMuffinMan> he is bound to write a will and send it out to a few confirmed humans
<brute_force> talesin is fairly inexperienced
<TheMuffinMan> if one of them is not dead already, that is
<brute_force> how would he "confirm" these humans if the seer is a wolf? <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<Pulse-> confirmed by who, though?
<brute_force> (ie the revealed seer is a wolf)
<brute_force> yeah
<TheMuffinMan> fair point, im thinking ahead of myself <!--emo&:)--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/smile-fix.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='smile-fix.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<TheMuffinMan> Either way, what if Talesin came out and told some people who had contacted him? If i was a wolf, i would not risk it
<Pulse-> I still believe Talesin though
<TheMuffinMan> if Talesin was the wolf himself, then there would be little to trace back to himself
<TheMuffinMan> if i have to pick between nem and Talesin, i'll go with Talesin, probably
<TheMuffinMan> one more point that i find pretty interesting:
<TheMuffinMan> Out of the remaining very experienced players, im_lost for wolfed
<TheMuffinMan> and swift was accused of being a wolf
<TheMuffinMan> this pretty much leaves us newbies on our own, and we have little experience with this kind of complex play
<SwiftSpear> I'm not a frigging wolf
<TheMuffinMan> so?
<TheMuffinMan> You think that anyone will believe you regardless?
<SwiftSpear> I'm just an easy target because Ive been left clueless this game
<TheMuffinMan> your opinion is pretty much null, sadly
<SwiftSpear> look
* brute_force has quit IRC (Ping timeout)
<SwiftSpear> there is 3 maby four days before wolfs win the game, that is dependent on how many wolfs we have killed (1 maby 2, I really doubt more then one)
<SwiftSpear> talesin is powerplaying here
<SwiftSpear> we have no clue who the other wolfs are
<TheMuffinMan> fair enough, but i don't really
<TheMuffinMan> agree
<TheMuffinMan> you are acting very defensively
<Snidely> yeah, for someone with just one vote against them, you're getting a bit carried away
<SwiftSpear> I have been openly accused of being a wolf by someone who claims to be involved with the seer
<SwiftSpear> votes are irrelevent
<TheMuffinMan> fair enough
<TheMuffinMan> and, regardless of whether Talesin is lying or telling the truth, he has created a large smokescreen and bias against you and nem
<SwiftSpear> fine then
<SwiftSpear> I'm not going to tell you what to do
<TheMuffinMan> Im siding with you mate :/
<SwiftSpear> I'm just going to tell you that talesin is a wolf trying to weed out early kills before the wolfs are screwed
<SwiftSpear> today I die
<SwiftSpear> human dies at night
<SwiftSpear> tomorrow nem dies
<SwiftSpear> human dies at night
<Snidely> for a vanilla human, you seem awfully sure of yourself
<Pulse-> yeah, you seem to know a little too much sometimes
<TheMuffinMan> he has experience on his side
<SwiftSpear> next day wolfs just wait for the first human to be voted for and then stack that vote for the win
<Snidely> experience only goes so far
<SwiftSpear> what do I know?
<SwiftSpear> I'm just telling you how I see it
<TheMuffinMan> Has Talesin really given us decent proof?
<TheMuffinMan> Is it worth gambling the game on?
<Pulse-> how do you prove that?
<TheMuffinMan> You can't
<TheMuffinMan> but it came at just the right time to divert attention towards swift and nem
<Pulse-> you're gambling the game whether you go with Talesin or not
<SwiftSpear> as far as I am concerned the seer is dead because I have heard absolutly nothing about him
<Snidely> There's gonna be a point where you have to gamble, muff.
<SwiftSpear> all I know is someone is openly accusing me
<Snidely> That doesn't mean he's dead, Swift.
<TheMuffinMan> If talesin dies, by vote or wolf, and another person comes forward
<SwiftSpear> no
<TheMuffinMan> then i would agree with them
<TheMuffinMan> but it all seems too convenient
<SwiftSpear> but the numbers are seriously thinned out
<TheMuffinMan> our 2nd most experienced player dies
<TheMuffinMan> our most experienced player is accused
<TheMuffinMan> at the piviting point in the game
<Snidely> why would the wolves leave someone like Swift for this long?
<Snidely> giving him the chance to network?
<TheMuffinMan> to use in this example
<TheMuffinMan> they leave swift because at the moment, no offense, he is as good as lynched. Either him or nem
<SwiftSpear> easy target later?
<TheMuffinMan> and for all of us who believe in Talesin, will we believe in swift?
<TheMuffinMan> this guy who is now a wolf, apparantly
<SwiftSpear> there is a reason talesin is voting nem not me
<Snidely> easy? as i see it, you're not going to get lynmched today; nem has a greater chance
<TheMuffinMan> Your missing my point
<TheMuffinMan> Talesin has turned the community against both nem and swift
<TheMuffinMan> regarldess of who gets lynched, i doubt that we will believe the other one
<Snidely> I agree there.
<TheMuffinMan> so he has basically killed two birds with one stone
<TheMuffinMan> and swept our most valuable assets from under out feet
<Snidely> You just have to choose which one is more plausable. In my opinion, that's Tale.
<TheMuffinMan> to be honest, i have absolutely no idea what to do now. I have no experience and there is little to learn in the other game end threads
<TheMuffinMan> The way i see it
<TheMuffinMan> if we vote Talesin off and another person comes forward, then fair enough, Talesin was telling the truth and we can believe this new human
<TheMuffinMan> if we vote nem off, then a human gets wolfed
<TheMuffinMan> then we lynch swift, and another human gets wolfed
<TheMuffinMan> they mass vote us, we lose
<TheMuffinMan> Like i said, this comes at a too damned convient time
<TheMuffinMan> if this came yesterday or the day before, i would probably believe it
<Snidely> why?
<TheMuffinMan> as it stands, there is more to lose by agreeing with talesin than voting him off
<Snidely> isn't it more likely that swift would be killed early on?
<TheMuffinMan> not if the wolves were planning this
<TheMuffinMan> swift has not been amazingly active in this game, which is a good guise for a wolf
<Snidely> the wolves would never let him sit around and pull off what he did the last time
<TheMuffinMan> I think that they would, as he is just coming into his element here
<TheMuffinMan> where his experience will help us all
<Snidely> or kill us all
<TheMuffinMan> and what happens? He is accused and discredited
<Pulse-> if this came yesterday or the day before, it would've been a complete waste for Talesin
<TheMuffinMan> if he pms you and gives his opinion on who is a wolf, will you believe him or Talesin?
<TheMuffinMan> to come out so openly, yes
<Snidely> at this moment? talesin.
<TheMuffinMan> i also find it funny that out of 4 seerings, two of them come out as wolves
<TheMuffinMan> unlikely, but possible
<Snidely> if you want to be sure, muf, vote for one today and the other tomorrow. one of them's a wolf, right?
<SwiftSpear> talesin has made this hard on you. You either choose to kill me and nem and give the game to the wolfs, or you kill him at some point and not me and nem and give yourself a chance
<TheMuffinMan> exactly
<TheMuffinMan> too damned convenient
<SwiftSpear> it's one or the other, there is no way to have both
<Snidely> pfft - we don't give ourselves a chance oif you're both wolves!
<TheMuffinMan> perhaps swift is an actual wolf and this is all a game, yes
<TheMuffinMan> but i doubt it
<Snidely> it's not convienient because swift is too good a player to leave alone
<TheMuffinMan> that is really flipping elabourate
<Snidely> welcome to TWG
<Snidely> (:
<TheMuffinMan> (:
<lolfighter> That's my line!
<SwiftSpear> I'm also an easy target because I am the last experianced player
<Snidely> not any more, baby
<TheMuffinMan> Either way, i still think that we have more to lose by siding with Talesin
<lolfighter> Errm...
<lolfighter> I'm not listening.
* lolfighter hides in the closet again
<SwiftSpear> he's hoping that it makes it look obvious that I bumped off all the others
<SwiftSpear> trust me, I'm not that stupid
<Snidely> maybe you think we are
<Snidely> (:
<SwiftSpear> experianced players are threatening, but if I am a wolf I am ONLY hunting the seer
<SwiftSpear> and none of the experianced players were good canditites for seer
<Snidely> an experienced seer is going to be more dangerous than a noob seer
<SwiftSpear> they were all too loud and active
<Snidely> might as well be sure
<TheMuffinMan> What happens if you are wrong?
<Snidely> who, me?
<TheMuffinMan> You vote off nem, you vote of swift, two humans are wolfed and they win
<SwiftSpear> the seer wastes the wolfs if they don't get him
<Snidely> we don't know that they're humans
<SwiftSpear> experiance is irrelevent of that fact
<TheMuffinMan> If Talesin is telling the truth, then the game is over anyway
<Snidely> not if noone believes him
<SwiftSpear> I lost my network of contacts almost compleatly every time it started to form this game
<TheMuffinMan> Then we vote him off
<TheMuffinMan> if another human comes out, then we can believe him and vote off the wolves
<Snidely> i'm not willing to take that risk
<Snidely> why can you believe him? he vcould be another wolf
<TheMuffinMan> He could be
<SwiftSpear> the game is over one way or another
<TheMuffinMan> but if i side with Talesin and am wrong, we lose
<SwiftSpear> you just have to decide who you trust
<TheMuffinMan> if i side with swift and am wrong, we can still pull it back
<Snidely> how?
<Snidely> what if the seer gets another wolf?
<Snidely> and what if talesin IS the seer?
<lolfighter> What if I am a bananana?
* TheMuffinMan has quit IRC (Ping timeout)
<lolfighter> Imagine the impact THAT would have on the game!
<Snidely> i...am a banana!
<Snidely> Mah spoon is too big
<lolfighter> No no, not banana.
<lolfighter> Bananana.
<Snidely> or is it the other way around
<lolfighter> It's the other way around.
<Snidely> regardless, my anus is bleeding
<lolfighter> Ewww!
<Snidely> take THAT, lady virtue!
* lolfighter stuffs a tampon into Snidely
<lolfighter> Plugged!
<Snidely> :|
<Snidely> It's surpisingly comfy
<Pulse-> I like the way SwiftSpear conveys this situation
<SwiftSpear> what?
<Pulse-> either you're with him or you LOSE THE GAME OMG
<SwiftSpear> it is either or
<Snidely> heh
<SwiftSpear> ok fine. COME WITH ME AND YOU WIN THE GAME!
<Snidely> what happened to the willingness to sacrifice yourself?
<Snidely> <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo-->
<SwiftSpear> WE CAN ALL STILL WIN!
<SwiftSpear> I AM NOT WILLING TO SACRIFICE MYSELF FOR A WOLF WIN!
<Snidely> hmm. if you die, we can still win
<SwiftSpear> I am more then happy to give them my life during the night
<SwiftSpear> no
<SwiftSpear> if you kill me and nem you lose
<Snidely> why?
<SwiftSpear> there is no winning
<SwiftSpear> you need to have already killed off all but one wolf to win this game
<Snidely> how can you be so sure nem isn't a wolf?
<SwiftSpear> talesin knows that
<SwiftSpear> he wouldn't be making this move if he were the last wolf
<SwiftSpear> maby he is
<SwiftSpear> I really doubt the wolfs would bother to do that this late though
<SwiftSpear> and if you kill nem talesin and me and nem ISN'T a wolf then you are still dead
<SwiftSpear> there is only two conditions in which this is a good move for talesin
<SwiftSpear> either he is the seers frontman
<SwiftSpear> or he is a wolf accusing two humans
<Snidely> or he is the seer himself
<SwiftSpear> that works too
<Snidely> whereas you seem to either be a human (innocent) or a wolf
<SwiftSpear> indeed
<Snidely> and as i said, you seem to be more wolf to me
<Snidely> *shurg*
<Snidely> *shrug*, even
<SwiftSpear> I don't understand your priorities
<Snidely> my priority is to vote off the person I think is most likely a wolf
<SwiftSpear> if me and nem are humans and die it will never have mattered that talesin may have been the seer
<Snidely> i already suspected you, and talesin coming out is just icing on the cake
<SwiftSpear> keeping him alive longer now does you no good
<Snidely> that applies to you, too
<SwiftSpear> I know it is from your presepctive, but I am not a wolf, sorry
<Snidely> well, there's not much I can do about that
<SwiftSpear> I still don't get you, are you a wolf or are you just paranoyed?
<SwiftSpear> I already explained to you about the whole im lost thing, and you said you were more concerned about cold nite
<Snidely> I already said - you seem like the most likely person to be a wolf
<SwiftSpear> I even have a PM from you about it
<Snidely> That changed when I looked over things again
<Snidely> Like I said in the thread
<SwiftSpear> this seems to be some very strange gameplay you have going on here
<SwiftSpear> fair enough
<Snidely> anyway, i gotta do the washing up before my sis gets back. >.< i'll see you around.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
That's the point where I left to do washing up/cook food. ;P
God this game is so freaking confusing.
If his story has anything to do with real life, there should be 2 other humans. Why didn't he reveal them? Wouldn't that help to ensure we didn't vote against them?
If Talesin is the seer, then yeah, you're gonna get seered. If he's not, you may not. Who knows? Nemesis, Swift, Talesin, <span style='color:red'><b>Mystery Man X</b></span>...there's no discernable pattern. It depends whether the seer wants to find out all the wolves (risky) or build a network of humans.<!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
Yeah I guess so. I just wonder why he didn't end up building a larger network of humans. Where is the other human he seered? And what are the chances of a seer getting 2 wolves in 4 nights. That's out of quite a few, counting those who have died? I'm smelling a wolf setup. And I don't even know if Talesin is in on it. He could be a tool and he might not even know it. Though that doesn't seem likely to me.
<!--QuoteBegin-Snidely+Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td><b>QUOTE</b> (Snidely @ Apr 13 2005, 07:21 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->In the end, go with your gut. If you feel that Swift et al are right, then vote for them. If you don't trust Swift at this point, then vote against him. There's not much else you can do, except look back at what's transpired. <b>You're not going to find an easy decision, here.</b><!--QuoteEnd--></td></tr></table><div class='postcolor'><!--QuoteEEnd-->
God, ain't that the truth.
(Though lets not even go into Nem0 and Swift being set up. If Talesin is a human and a tool for the wolves, and the wolves get the idea of killing Talesin just to make us think Nem0 and Swift did it, well I might as well give up right now, before my head explodes.)
<b>NemesisZero</b> remains my vote. I am hoping that the psychic's representative will come forth tomorrow, to state the remaining number himself. If Nem is lynched tonight, and the number goes down, my innocence may be validated. If I am still under suspicion, I will accept a lynching tomorrow... the general reduction (by Nem) will at least delay the wolves' ability to instalynch the rest of the humans. The other confirmed human may take my place as a mouthpiece, if he feels like placing himself in similar danger.
The current list of confirmed, and under suspicion:
<b>NemesisZero</b>
Swiftspear
Mantrid (To be scanned tonight, kept people from banding together in the past)
TheMuffinMan (IRC grandstanding, insisting that killing Nem OR Swift would lose the game for the humans)
Please note that the last two are NOT certain, and are just the small circle's 'most likely' on the list.
As for my own position, I can only say that I am human. The person who contacted me as the Seer may actually be a wolf, using me for his own ends, but for the time being, it is the only information that I have to work with. The 'convenient' seering of two wolves actually makes sense... I was Seered first, having a fairly high profile on the forums, as well as being a newbie. Nem was seered second, having similar notoriety. The other confirmed human was seered third. By the fourth night, enough had played out to make an educated guess as to SwiftSpear, based upon Nem's posting habits. The wolves taking a 'reversal' role this game, defending people who were pointed out, so that they could defend one another in the case of a fingering (as this), without falling out of step.
I will not list the other confirmed-human until he gives his permission, as even being known as having been seered places them at risk. Same with the front-man for the Psychic, though he has NOT been confirmed as human. Mantrid, one of the 'other humans' is the seer. You will be scanned tonight. If you are shown to be 'clear', the seer will contact you.
Again. I am willing to accept a lynch tomorrow night, in exchange for a show of faith today. There is another to carry on the information that those remaining humans NEED, whether it is believed or not.
(On a side note, it's actually more of a pain that we DID find two wolves early in the game. Having a larger circle of humans makes things easier... gives you more people to talk to, and narrows the number of might-be wolves. <!--emo&:p--><img src='http://www.unknownworlds.com/forums/html/emoticons/tounge.gif' border='0' style='vertical-align:middle' alt='tounge.gif' /><!--endemo--> Unfortunately, with our small numbers, and apparent wide misses on lynchings, this is more a last-gasp attempt to pull out a win. I was already under suspicion, so I might as well go out and leave information behind.)
I am personally favoring the 'chips on the table' approach, if it wasn't already clear. It is not my decision to speak for the other confirmed human or psychic-contact, which is why I am omitting their names. I would urge them to come forward though, of their own will.
Also, Nem... you may have made an error. You questioned my motives, restated your place in the game (which leads to my suspicion that the wolves are trying a new tactic, defending others that are under accusation) and the reason I had waited so long. But you did not question that I had been contacted by the Seer.
As for the real reason that SwiftSpear was scanned fourth... he was verbose, and seemed to take note of detail. I'd asked to have him scanned that night, to add him to our arsenal of reasoning. The seer and other confirmed human agreed that he would be a valuable addition, but we were still refusing to add anyone to the circle unless they had been scanned. I was told that he came back as a wolf.
My 'power-play' was instigated at that point, against the advice of the Seer. We had two ID'd wolves, and not enough humans to do anything about it. Going public accomplished two things. It gave that information to the remaining humans in the event of my death, and reduced the likelihood of an 'accidental' wolfing among our known humans by a third.
I have to admit, he's presented a fairly convincing case. The fact is that it is unfortunately not at all representivive of fact.
My 'out of character' posts (read: not part of the story) have been truthful insofar as I am aware. I cannot verify the Seer, but am willing to take him at his word. Reviewing the prior games, it would make sense for the wolves to try a new tactic.
Also, Mantrid and Swiftspear were both looking over the thread, shortly after Swift left the IRC channel, following my post. That, to me at least, implies a degree of connection or communication between them. It could be as simple as 'Talesin listed you as a might-be wolf', or have a much more sinister tint. It could also be sheer coincidence... but we need any vector possible to establish links.
Also, I am perfectly willing to post PM logs regarding the decision to scan Swift, with names of the other human and Seer removed, if anyone would count them as valid evidence.